Point Blank – December 11
Weekend Edition – The NBA’s Long and Winding Road…It was the Viking coaching staff that committed the Cardinal sins…When some Saints go marching out…The bad waves keep crashing for Pacific...
Long NBA road trips are easily visible to the marketplace, who carefully scrutinize the teams for any signs of fatigue, and in particular look for those spots in which a coach might mail one in, in order to better prep his team for what is ahead. What is under-appreciated is that the first game at home is often an extension of that trip, especially if there is only one travel day to set it up, and not the “beginning” of something else. Since the Friday NBA board brings a prime example, let’s take a field trip to study that very issue. And with a couple of topics to cover it means the need for a little musical background, so on point is "The Long and Winding Road", an elegant live version from Paul McCartney -
Orlando has been on just such a road, and will be playing the first home game since November 29, having had a five-game swing through three different time zones. The fact that it is being viewed by the marketplace as a successful trip works well for our purposes tonight – in going 3-2, with both of the losses close, it helps to get a favorable price range to work with. Some of that must be taken with a grain of salt – the Magic won at Utah in what was the first game for the Jazz after Rudy Gobert’s knee injury; the close loss to the Clippers came with Chris Paul and J. J. Redick sitting out (yet Orlando still saw a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter get away); and in the final two legs of the trip they had the advantage of catching both Denver (five-game swing, the last two on the east coast) and Phoenix (six-game trip, only one day off after winning at Chicago in the final game) in their first home games after a long travel sequence.
So what happens now? First there is the long slog home, after going through one of the NBA’s toughest cycles – having to play in the altitude at Denver, and then again the next night in Phoenix. It means an added level of fatigue before boarding the plane, and as is the case in all sports, the West to East trip is the most difficult of all, with the hours lost in the time zone adjustment exacerbating all issues. Those issues run beyond basketball – returning home after a trip brings all sorts of logistical items to sort through, something that any of us that have ever traveled extensively are well aware of. Search out the quotes from players and coaches for these settings, and you will find much to work with. But tonight there is more.
While searching specifically for takes on those difficulties of returning home, there was instead more confirmation that the Orlando road trip was not nearly as successful as it is being perceived. It comes from Scott Skiles continuing to bemoan the attention span of a young team that often has major lapses, and these comments from the Phoenix post-game matter - “We had multiple just regular in-game timeouts tonight where once again, and it’s happened to us too many times, where . . . we just kind of came out and just didn’t know what we were supposed to be doing.”
It is that floor game that creates the added vulnerability tonight, against an opponent that can exploit it. It just so happens that on a night in which the Magic come in physically weary, and tactically unprepared (Thursday being a lost day), the Cleveland focus for this game sets up almost as well as the regular season can set something up. The Cavaliers have only played one game over the last four days, a home win over Portland on Tuesday, and it will be four more days before they play again. Not only does this help them to focus in on specifically game-planning for this matchup, but the team has also laid out a different travel cycle for the trip. They were already in Orlando for practice yesterday, and will stay in the area until Monday, before heading to Boston (from LeBron James - “It’s great that we’re able to be in the warm weather and take advantage of getting some great practices while we’re down there, and also getting some good rest.”) Note that there is also an extra spring in the step at those practices, with Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert both taking part yesterday, and while neither is likely to play tonight, it does help the team’s overall focus and energy level.
With the play-against notion of Orlando being out of sorts in this setting, and the play-on of the Cavaliers being fresh and well-prepared, #705 Cleveland goes squarely “In the Sights…” tonight, in what is a more than fair market offering.
About Last Night…
The Viking/Cardinal post-mortem is an interesting one across many fronts. The Cardinals struggled to take advantage of an injury-riddled Minnesota defense, netting 107 yards on a pair of catch-and-run TD passes, but only 4.5 yards per play on everything else, three times having drives of 11 plays or more that could only end in FG attempts. Meanwhile Teddy Bridgewater had one of the better games of his career, until that final snap, and it is that final play that will make the headlines and the video highlights, the vision of a QB turning the ball over at literally the worst possible time. Except that I only grade it as partially being his fault.
What were the Vikings trying to accomplish by running a play on third down with no timeouts left? There was no hope of going to the end zone from 31 yards out. Blair Walsh was already in comfortable FG range. A penalty would lead to a more difficult kick, and a play that ended with a live ball anywhere between the sidelines was going to end the game. What they decided to do was attempt to throw a sideline pass to move the ball a little closer for Walsh, which ultimately meant risking a lot of downside for what was only going to be something of marginal advantage if successful.
From Bridgewater - "The play call was designed to get out of bounds. We had all our receivers coming from the left side of the field so I tried to do my best to wait for those guys to at least get on the right side of the hash so they don't get tackled in bounds since we didn't have any timeouts."
OK, so Bridgewater rolling to his right for a quick throw to someone stationed on that side makes sense. A quick play, with little chance of a sack, could not be argued with. But for the receivers to have to come across the field, forcing the QB to wait in the pocket, because he could not throw the ball until they got near the other sideline? That is very, very bad tactical football. And what happens when you dial up bad tactics at the wrong time? The wrong result(s).
Bridgewater will get most of the blame for that play, yet more should fall on the shoulders of the Minnesota coaching staff, who put him in a position for that to happen. They absolutely should not have dialed up a slow-developing pass play for that setting.
In the Sights…
It is easy to understand Tampa Bay being played from -3.5 up to -4.5 over the last 24 hours, with a host of injuries to key cogs on the Saints offense not lost on the marketplace. Yet the Total has remained where it is, and that does leave a door open to take advantage, the particular path being #119 New Orleans Team Total Under.
First note that even when most hands have been on deck the Saints offense has not traveled well this season, averaging only 17.5 points per game on the road, and in the two most recent outings could manage only 14 at Washington and six at Houston. But now they have lost Mark Ingram for the rest of the season, with his effectiveness vastly under-rated (769 rushing yards at 4.6; 50 pass receptions at 8.1), and while C. J. Spiller is effective at what he does, he can not replace what Ingram brought. There is also the real possibility that leading receiver Brandin Cooks (61-840-7) may not pass the concussion protocol, and on Thursday three key cogs from the OL – Terron Armstead (knee), Zach Strief (shoulder) and Jahri Evans (ankle) were not available for practice. With Marques Colston having already been lost, picking up the slack for Cooks is made more difficult, and patching together an OL rotation will not be easy, even if a few of the walking wounded are able to go.
This all becomes even more pronounced because the Tampa Bay defense has been making strides, including a solid game last week without Gerald McCoy, who is practicing again and is likely to play, albeit with his hand in a cast. With the playoffs in focus because of a favorable schedule stretch ahead look for that unit to only get better, and as things improve at Tampa it also helps to bring the crowd into play, something that can aid a pass rush – there is a strong chance that this game becomes a rare sell-out.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Hoops…
#572 Fresno State has been in the focus all week leading up to this setting, a double-revenge motivation that will have the Bulldogs not just looking to win, but to win big. One of the keys to the value is that they come in under-valued because of road losses at Oregon and Arizona in which they were in position to win outright but did not finish, results that have been under-appreciated by the marketplace, Make sure you grade Wednesday’s loss at Tucson properly, where they trailed the Wildcats 71-70 with 2:57 remaining before the final was registered at 85-72.
What puts this over the top is that what has already been a difficult season for Pacific, with seniors Sami Eleraky and Eric Thompson still not cleared to play pending further NCAA investigation, took a darker turn yesterday, with HC Ron Verlin and assistant Dwight Young being suspended. Verlin’s comments made it sound like he may not be back anytime soon, if at all – “It’s been an emotional day. I would like to thank my family, all of the coaches, players, Pacific staff and boosters that have made these past 22 years very special. I just cherish the time I’ve had here, made lifetime friends at Pacific. Right now, I have two sons that go to school at Pacific and I’m sure they will continue, and we’ll deal with this one day at a time.”
While Fresno could not close out to get those wins at Oregon and Arizona, those were good challenges to toughen the Bulldogs up. They can vent a lot of frustrations here, and the shell-shocked Tigers may not put up much of a fight from behind, yet with plenty of -9.5 out there this morning it does not take a major blowout to get the money.
For your listening pleasure…
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