Point Blank – October 1
Ravens/Steelers - the Return of Michael Vick…If you join the Navy you should be OK about getting wet…At least one National still has his head in the game…For San Jose State, it may not be a “lovely” place on Saturday…
I thought that the Pittsburgh Steelers had an awkward pre-season. Landry Jones was given ample time to show that he could step up and become the #2 QB, but he failed most of the challenges, to the point at which I expected him to get cut. He didn’t. But he also did not earn the #2, so naturally it meant time to shop around for a veteran that could run the offense if something happened to Ben Roethlisberger. With all of the weapons on hand at the RB and WR/TE slots, there seemed to be several candidates that could make this playbook work.
None of them were Michael Vick. Yet Vick is the one that was signed, on August 25, which did not leave him much time to get up to speed in this season. And what exactly was he bringing anyway? At 35 a diminished physical skill set, including a dismal showing with the Jets last year, although ironically the one game he did make a couple of plays happened to be in a New York win against these Steelers. Did Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh management read something into that game that perhaps they should not have?
It leads us to tonight, and a rather substantial power ratings adjustment based on the Roethlisberger/Vick changeover, in the range of 6 to 6.5 points from most sources. The fact that it is a Thursday game makes it an even more difficult plotting of the graph, because something that gets emphasized here so often – injuries carry more weight when they force a team to change their schemes – will be in play. This is not a seamless transition, so let’s make that the baseline to work from.
Let’s start with Vick himself, who was rather blunt and honest about it - “I had to eliminate the plays that I am not comfortable with. As of right now, we had a ton of them. … We have a ton of good (plays, too). Maybe there are a ton of ones I am not comfortable with, but those are ones I need to decipher out. It's going to help tremendously.”
OC Todd Haley must be more diplomatic, of course - “What we take pride in is playing to each player's strengths. When you are talking about the quarterback, you are talking about the same thing. He is not stepping in and doing what Ben did. He is going to do what gives Michael Vick the best chance to help us succeed. Us coaches love security blankets - more is better. It is a short week, and you have to keep things pretty simple, so maybe in the long run it is probably a blessing.”
It does not bring a positive vibe, does it? Until you focus on the other side of the equation. The Ravens have been riddled to the tune of 65 points and 906 yards the last two weeks, allowing 6.9 per snap. Yet in this short week, just how do they prepare for a playbook that could be vastly different from past meetings with the Steelers? This is a difficult offense to defend, because of all of those skill position weapons, and Vick adds another dimension in terms of needing to be shadowed. Do John Harbaugh and DC Dean Peas gamble by allowing Vick to run on occasion, in terms of keeping the integrity of their overall scheme in place? Or do they dedicate a defender to Vick, which can leave a hole elsewhere? Not easy stuff to sort through in a short week.
Can these various components be blended into a stew that can make for a palatable investment this evening? I do not quite see it. There was some temptation to look Over, because Vick has the potential to both make big plays (he can whip the ball far downfield to Antonio Brown; arm strength on a deep ball something he can match Roethlisberger), and give them up (do not be surprised to see a fumble). But that notion becomes cloudy when considering the Steeler pacing. Even with Big Ben at the controls this offense has been deliberate, rating #23 in SPS at 28.9. As for the Side, while a reasonable +3 with Pittsburgh will be tempting, this game brings a higher degree of randomness than I am comfortable with. It would feel like laying about -112 or -113 instead of -110, which means a bigger edge is needed in the handicap to overcome that. I do not see that yet.
So after reading all of this, the case study tonight is more developing long-term thought processes than finding advantage in a wager, but it is a valuable process to go through. For most teams an injury does not require a major change to the playbook – they try to have reserves with comparable skill sets as the starter, from a style standpoint. That means your power rating adjustment is simply from the value of one player to his back-up in those instances. When the playbook itself has to change, that adds another dimension, both good and bad. It may seem bad for the offense in having all 10 of the other players forced to step away from their routine, but there is the good in that the preparation by the opposing defense has been made much more arduous.
Hurricane Warnings Part I – Ken Niumatalolo gets it right
The lead topic on Friday will be the impact that Hurricane Joaquin could be having on games all along the Atlantic Coast, and in sorting many of the line moves that have already taken place. That should already be a process for you as you put some of your weekend ideas together while watching Ravens/Steelers tonight, a process that I know many of you go through. Here is an interesting notion to file away – instead of dreading the storm and having to find ways to work around it, Niumatololo is planning to use it to advantage. If there is going to be a wet field when his Navy team hosts Air Force in Annapolis, then he will have the Midshipmen ready for it – they are practicing outdoors all week, regardless of the conditions -
"We're going to stay outdoors so we get accustomed to playing in the rain and handling wet footballs. I hope it doesn't rain in Colorado Springs. It's hard to simulate rain."
Maybe not, coach. While most of the betting world will be focused on Joaquin, note that there was a light shower in Colorado Springs yesterday, and about a 40 percent chance of a precipitation later today. It will not match what the Falcons will run into on Saturday, but an opportunity to practice with a wet ball today may help a little. In an endeavor in which we forage for every edge we can find, this is worth following.
In the Sights, MLB…
Amidst the rubble that has been the Washington collapse over the second half of this season has been a true diamond in the rough, Stephen Strasburg not only getting fully healthy, but showing what he is capable of when not having to deal with physical constraints. His stuff has been electric since returning to the rotation, and he can dominate a punchless Braves offense that has scored two runs or less in nine of the last 13 games. #910 Atlanta Team Total Under is the fit.
Strasburg has worked to a 5-2/2.09 since his return, but he may have been even better than that, with nearly twice as many Ks (85) as base-runners allowed (36 hits and 7 BB). Because he has missed so much time there is plenty of energy to go hard in his last outing of the season, and note that in September it has been a simply brilliant ratio of 50 Ks vs. 15 Hits allowed. As noted in a feature column back in May, you can reduce the weighting of many of his earlier outings because he was pitching through physical ailments, yet those numbers do end up in the data bases that help provide value for this setting.
In the Sights, NCAA…
In putting Auburn under the microscope a bit in the Monday NCAA review, there was discussion not just of the Tiger issues, but also the perceptions of such, the “scoreboard cult” not warming up to Gus Malzahn’s bunch at all. The key is that despite the growing angst in “Sweet Auburn, loveliest village of the plain” (Oliver Goldsmith – “The Deserted Village”), Malzahn’s team actually did a lot of things right last Saturday night, and now a talented bunch ready to vent some frustrations gets an ideal setting to do it. And for the savvy handicapper, it is an ideal setting to take advantage of, with a #180 Auburn ticket.
First, let’s deal with the scoreboard cult, measured by a marketplace that had the Tigers favored by -33 when these teams met last September, a 59-13 rout in which the score pretty much told the tale (Auburn ran for 358 yards at 7.2). So now the line adjustment is 13 points, and the visiting Spartans are being asked to shave 26 points from last year’s deficit to get to that adjustment. The thing is, they may not care to, and that matters.
Consider the setting. Last September San Jose State opened with an easy win over North Dakota, and had a bye on deck. The table was set for the Spartans to put their best effort on the field, and they were still drubbed by 46. Now examine how much that changes for this trip - they are off of a late-night win over Fresno State, their biggest MWC rival, and have a winnable conference game at UNLV next Saturday. That makes this focus much different, especially after having already traveled to Air Force and Oregon State, games in which the defense was gashed for 731 rushing yards in falling 24 points short of the market expectations. This time it is the third road game in four weeks, and little more than an opportunity to get a paycheck and keep all of the key players healthy. Especially RB Tyler Ervin, who should be worse for wear after carrying 42 times for 300 yards vs. Fresno State, while also catching four passes for 45 more.
San Jose State wore down badly in both of those early road defeats, getting out-scored 44-9 in the second half, even though Air Force and Oregon State were not deep or physical teams. That becomes an even bigger factor vs. this class of opponent, and since there is not much tangible reason to compete from behind anyway, do not expect Ron Carragher to chase with any vigor. It is a different story for Auburn, which not only has a bad taste to spit out, but with next Saturday off, has no reason to hold back. Remember that the Tigers moved the ball well against a decent Mississippi State defense last week, but had four trips inside the 10-yard line end without a TD. Against this defensive front, those drives become much easier to finish.
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