Point Blank – September 30
“The Play’s The Thing” (there is as much Shakespeare as Euclid in this stuff)…Should we “Mauk” the market move against Mizzou?…A good day to be a Cole miner in Pittsburgh…
It is time to set the template for what will become a regular feature here – “The Play’s The Thing” (Hamlet Act II, Scene II, but you already knew that). It is a way of bringing several key aspects of game analysis into focus, in order to give you a better read than the general marketplace will have over the course of time.
First there is the notion that while seven points are the most that can be scored on any individual play in a football game (Mike Tomlin and the Steelers will be trying to turn that into eight a little more often), one solitary snap of the ball can impact the final scoreboard by far more than that. Second is the notion of just how games do get played out, having Shakespearean plot twists that simply do not reduce themselves neatly into the confinements of scoreboards and box scores. And there is also that final notion that there is as much Shakespeare as Euclid in handicapping sports, the understanding of human nature being every bit as important as the ability to crunch numbers.
This might actually scare a few folks when they see it broken down into those components – it makes it even more difficult to come to terms with the truth behind an event. But do not let that bother you – the entire marketplace has to struggle with these issues. If you are a little better at it than the others, you put yourself in an opportunity to win.
This is a good time for the discussion because there were some outcomes that had major swings off of a single play last weekend, and in the current NFL “What a Bettor Better Know” thread a reader brought up one of them – Andy Dalton’s interception in the end zone on the first drive of the second half in Cincinnati/Baltimore, when the Bengals were leading 14-0 and had a chance to snap the game open. Since they did ultimately win it does not become magnified as it should, but instead of going up 21-0 or 17-0, the Bengals found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter. If Cincinnati had scored on that possession, the Ravens were unlikely to get back in the game, and were ticketed to lose by more than four.
Sometimes these plays cause major immediate swings. Sometimes they led to a long and gradual game turnaround. Let’s look at two prime examples from this past weekend –
Item: When Arizona State “snapped”
Todd Graham’s Sun Devils did not get off to a great start against USC, with the Trojans having an excellent game plan against a defense that leads the nation in blitz percentage – in going up 21-0, the Trojans converted on third-and-16, third-and-15, third-and-13, third-and-10 and third-and-9 plays, all against ASU blitzes. Meanwhile the Sun Devils had moved the ball, but lost a fumble at the USC 24-yard line, had an interception near midfield, and missed two FGs. Still, State had a chance to go into the half with some momentum, having a first-and-goal at the one-yard line with 0:40 remaining. Cut it to 21-7 and it is still a game. Instead it became 35-0 before they went to the locker room.
The sequence was an ugly one. On that first-and-goal play Graham chose to remain in the shotgun, like so many other coaches (cough, Gus Malzahn, cough), and a bad snap led to a fumble that was scooped up by Chris Hawkins, who returned it 94 yards for a USC touchdown. It then became a back-breaker when ASU also fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the four-yard line, setting up another easy Trojan score.
What happens if State scores before the half? We will never know. But almost assuredly the Sun Devils would not have lost the final scoreboard count by 28 points. Play-for-play the teams were not that far apart, ASU leading 26-18 in first downs and the Trojans winning the total offense battle 455-454. That swing before the half was simply a monster on the scoreboard.
Item: When Brandon Weeden turned back into Brandon Weeden
This was touched upon a bit in Tuesday’s column. The Cowboys got off to an unexpectedly strong start against the Falcons, gashing the Atlanta defensive front and having both a 21-7 lead, and possession of the ball, with 6:03 remaining in the second quarter. It was an ideal setting in which to just hold on to command of the game – the two previous Falcon possessions with three-and-outs, so with the running attack and defense working well, the focus for the Dallas drive should have been on maintaining the flow, and not running any risk of letting the momentum turn. In this instance, you grind away, and force Atlanta to make a play.
Yet on first down there was not only a decision by the Cowboys to pass, but Weeden made a terrible judgment while rolling out from the pocket, making a bad throw against his body that was easily intercepted. Over the remaining 36 minutes of football, 21-7 became 28-39, that mistake leading to a 25-point scoreboard reversal.
Over time, the final scores of USC/Arizona State and Atlanta/Dallas get etched in stone, as do the box scores, as though that was the full football merit of what happened on those fields. Yet so many games are rife with possibilities, often coming down to how the ball bounces at a given moment, and understanding that should become a major part of your handicapping process. Your edge, in learning to break down games with a more artistic eye, will be that most in the marketplace do not.
So is Maty Mauk being suspended actually a bad thing for Mizzou?
And speaking of the marketplace, here comes a revised line of Missouri -2.5 over South Carolina, on the news of Tiger QB Mauk being suspended, quickly running through the key number of “3”. On the surface that might seem proper, a QB with a 17-5 career record as the starter being replaced by a true freshman, Drew Lock. But here’s the thing – Lock is going to be a lot better than Mauk. He obviously does not have the experience of a veteran that has been through the tough SEC challenges, but he brings far more upside.
Mauk is a gamer, a guy that competes hard, but does not have the physical tools to make many plays. That was fine in the past when game management was needed, but this season the Tigers came in vastly inexperienced at WR, and an injury to Russell Hansbrough has limited the ground game. That put more emphasis on Mauk’s physical skills, and it has only been a 51.8 percent completion rate, good for just 5.9 yards per attempt, with four interceptions already. That has led to the fan base getting restless, and fanning the flames on that front is that Lock is from Lee’s Summit, Missouri and was already a fan favorite before he threw a single pass.
Lock has the size and the pedigree to play in the SEC, and note the way that Gary Pinkel has used him speaks volumes – it has not been all mop-up work, but Lock getting a second-quarter series in each game. His series at Kentucky on Saturday showed both his upside, driving the Tigers from their own 10-yard line to the Wildcat 32, but also a flaw, as he took a sack on third-down to knock the offense back out of FG range. He has a better arm than Mauk, but with less experience and less mobility, sacks became an issue.
There will be a lot on the shoulders of Lock, but having played in the first half each week will have him more prepared than had it only been late mop-up work. His arm strength can help the offense to open up by at least attempting to throw down the field, but perhaps most important of all for this week, the Missouri crowd could be an electric one, hoping to anoint a QB they expect to be leading the way for four seasons. Keep in mind the impact a more passionate crowd can have when South Carolina has the ball, with Gamecock freshman QB Lorenzo Nunes making his first road start.
I am not in a hurry to get to Missouri here, but I believe that the markets may have adjusted this a bit too much, and that may lead to some involvement before the game kicks off.
In the Sights…
Gerrit Cole is ready for the playoffs, and unless something out of the ordinary happens he will be starting from this mound against the Cubs next Wednesday. But I see the form there to cash in his final tune-up first, and the price is more than fair to put #982 Pittsburgh in play this afternoon (1:35 Eastern first pitch).
Cole’s last four starts have all been preludes to October, facing the Cardinals, Dodgers and Cubs on the road, and also having an outing vs. the Cubs here. In those four games it has been a 3-0/2.30, the Pirates also winning the game in which he had a no-decision, and his stuff has been as good as that bottom line indicates, with 32 Ks vs. only 18 hits and five walks allowed.
Michael Wacha also has playoff appearances ahead, but he does not show that same readiness. At 177 1/3 innings his stuff looks flat, and after being skipped once through the rotation it has only been a 2-2/6.75 across four September outings, with an alarming 14 walks in 20 IP. He has not had a PPI count of lower than 16.7 since the middle of August. His vulnerability only gets exacerbated by not having Yadier Molina behind the plate to call the game, and I would not be surprised if his struggles continued again this afternoon.
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