Point Blank – August 21
How high is the Falcon offensive ceiling (if the RBs step up watch out; Camp Questions - #14)…Shelby Miller keeps competing…Taking advantage of an atypical camp week for St. Louis…
Time to put the Atlanta Falcons under the microscope today as they head to New York to face the Jets, hopefully with RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy enough to see playing time. Those two have each returned to practice after suffering hamstring injuries two weeks ago, and may get on the field tonight. Their presence is meaningful, because they are the final pieces to what could be a most intriguing puzzle.
I have written a few times about Kyle Shanahan on this page, a guy that I believe is extremely under-rated, and has done a terrific job as an OC at various stops already. He led Matt Schaub to a 98.6 single-season passer rating at Houston, which will almost assuredly be his career best. He took Robert Griffin to a 102.4 at Washington, which will likely be his best. And what Shanahan did with an extremely limited skill group cast at Cleveland last year may prove to have been genius – look at how inept that Browns have been offensively in this pre-season.
Here was a great take before camp opened from Atlanta HC Dan Quinn, one of the better defensive minds in the game, on why he brought in Shanahan to direct Matt Ryan & company - "The way he can attack on offense, he is one of the hardest guys to coach against from a defensive standpoint. Whenever you are on the defensive side, and you're looking at the other guys, in the back of your mind you say, 'OK, what is the system? Who are the people that are so unique, so hard to go against?' Kyle was always somebody that I thought of in that way."
The elevation for Shanahan from the Cleveland offensive huddle to what he has to work with this season is substantial. It may seem like Matt Ryan has been around forever, but his best football may be yet ahead of him. Julio Jones and Roddy White provide one of the most dynamic WR tandems in the NFL (don’t underestimate the fact that Jones was fully healthy through the off-season for a change, and came to camp lighter, more muscular, and faster), while adding Jacob Tamme and Leonard Hankerson, the latter having played under Shanahan with the Redskins, brings depth and flexibility. The question is at RB, where Freeman and Coleman have major upside, but precious little experience. That is something to be watching over the next couple of weeks.
What Shanahan has done so impressively is build a system around the talent that was available, instead of merely having one playbook that the players had to adjust to. What Ryan has not had in his career is an OC that maximized his abilities. If these pieces come together the way they are capable of, the Falcons could perform far better offensively than the #12 rating that finished with on the Football Outsiders 2014 charts. And Jones may have a campaign that challenges some records.
As for tonight, there will likely be no participation until the status of Freeman and Coleman is determined, which may not be until pre-game warmups. There is some temptation to a First half Over 20 if that number appears (I do not see it yet, but a few shops are close), with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets offense needing to establish some kind of working rhythm. But that is not a standout; merely something that could end up as some loose change in the pocket.
In the Sights, MLB…
Shelby Miller’s rather remarkable stretch has been a topic here several times in recent weeks, and while watching him under the microscope one thing has become apparent – despite getting few rewards, he continues to battle. So with #951 Atlanta Run Line available in a fair range for what will not be an explosive setting in Wrigley, it is time to take a late afternoon ride.
You will rarely find a game this late in any season in which one starter has an ERA of 1.54 better per game than the other and is placed in this price range (FIP is much closer, but also in Miller’s favor). But you know the story by now – Miller has not recorded a win over his last 16 starts, with the Braves going 3-13 in that span, despite the fact that he has worked to a 3.03 allowance across it. In 11 of those games he allowed two runs or less. Yet it has not gotten into his head – after having a full week off, he responded by holding Arizona to just one run over seven IP on Sunday, with 10 Ks vs. only two hits allowed.
Meanwhile Kyle Hendricks went into the All Star break as one of the hottest arms around throwing three consecutive shutouts, but it has been an entirely different story since, a 5.29 over six starts in which his BB/9 has been 3.6. Under a different karma than Miller he has managed to go 2-1, and the Cubs 4-2, across those games, but all that does is set this game in up far too high of a range. Also note that for the full season, of the 118 pitchers that have thrown at least 90 IP, the DBF for Hendricks is #114, showing how favorable his ride has been. The Braves may not find a way to back Miller with a win, but he will keep them in the hunt, enough to make the +1.5 a valuable commodity.
In the Sights, NFL…
I believe there will be a major difference in terms of both team rhythm, and focus on the scoreboard results, when the Rams travel to Nashville to face the Titans on Sunday night. That brings #430 Tennessee into full view.
I see this as an awkward setting for St. Louis. While the Titans will have been training at home for over a full week to prepare for Marcus Mariota’s debut at Nissan Stadium, the Rams will have only had three practices in the previous nine days, and just one in the previous four. After losing at Oakland last Friday they took Saturday off, then held only a film review on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday brought sessions with the Cowboys in Oxnard, which required an hour of travel each way, and the second session was cut a bit short by that practice-ending brawl. Wednesday brought travel back to St. Louis, but after practicing for the first time in their own digs in a week on Thursday, Jeff Fisher then gave them Friday off (“We’ve got a tired team. We’re gonna emphasize recovery.”). That leads to more travel Saturday to get to Nashville, which can turn this into a game where Fisher chooses to evaluate personnel, instead of trying to make anything happen on the scoreboard. If he needs a win, he can get it next week in the home pre-season opener.
Meanwhile I believe this is a setting that matters for the Titans. While Mariota struggled early in the pocket in his debut he rebounded to make some plays, and it has been a good week for the offense in camp, especially with Dorial Green-Beckham showing signs of his vast upside. A win in Mariota’s first game in front of the home fans will be a priority for Ken Whisenhunt, and it also does not hurt that the #2 and #3 Titan QBs, Zach Mettenberger and Charlie Whitehurst, are better than their Ram counterparts.
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