Point Blank – August 19
Is Werth Worth Something at Leadoff (Matt Williams as Hamlet, for a moment)…Houston QB’s: Good now, but then? (Camp Questions #12)…This Kelly criterion is being misread…
Mired in a six-game losing streak that had seen his team fall 4.5 games behind the Mets, and essentially out of the Wild Card race, Matt Williams, who has had much of the Washington slump laid at his doorstep, made a bold move yesterday – he placed a guy having one of the worst seasons of any MLB hitter at leadoff. That guy was Jayson Werth, who has been written about here several times in recent weeks, and entered last night batting .184.
Werth went 2-5, while also drawing a walk, scoring three runs as the catalyst for a badly needed Nationals blowout. Which means time to put the team back under the microscope again.
Yes, here comes the caveat – beating up David Hale (in yesterday’s post-column thread his dismal 0-3/6.80 rehab at AAA was duly noted) and the lesser Colorado bullpen arms at Coors Field does not have to mean anything at all. But I would not write it off that quickly; this morning may be time to play Polonius, who set the tone in Act II of Hamlet for much of what was to come - “Though this be madness, yet there is method in it.” Nice when a weekday morning begins with thoughts of Matt Williams on the classical stage.
There is some genuine method here, and Williams was savvy enough to find it in attempts to turn both one of his key cogs, and his team, around. Werth had formerly had success in a leadoff role in 2012, in a season that he was also recovering from injury, and here is how Williams explained it to Chelsea James of the Washington Post, before the first Tuesday pitch had been thrown – “He came back from previous wrist injury in ’12, hit leadoff and did really well. Take a little pressure off in that regard. Not expected to drive the ball, but he works the count, he goes deep in counts, give our guys a little extra chance to see pitches early. Hopefully it gets us going. Hopefully it gets him going, and gets us going, too.”
The move worked, for a night. Yes, it worked in a hitter’s paradise against awful pitching, but on this road trip the Nationals have run into Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner in pitcher’s parks. The key, as is so often the case in baseball, is what it has them believing. If Werth genuinely believes last night mattered, then to a degree it does. With five other players also having multiple hits, and Bryce Harper being prevented from getting there because he walked four times, there may be an entirely different confidence level when they take the field tonight.
Stephen Strasburg has shown both health and confidence (20 Ks vs. 10 Hits allowed in his first two starts since returning)in his return, so Washington can build off of that Tuesday momentum, with the slumping Rockies (in going 1-7 over the last eight games, every defeat was by multiple runs) likely without both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon this evening. And as noted here earlier this season, those long-term numbers for Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field are regressing towards where their true reality should be, with an ugly 6.62 allowance this season in which he has walked 28 batters, and been tagged for nine home runs, over 50 1/3 IP.
Houston QB’s: Good now, but then? (Camp Questions #12)
Over time, I expect Bill O’Brien to be perceived as a straight shooter, which can be rare in the way that most coaches in professional leagues (and in truth at many of the higher college levels), deal with the sports mediaverse. So use the following, his take to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle earlier this week on the Texans QB situation, as something you can believe in -
“I don’t know when that announcement will be made. Everything that we do here, every decision we make, is in the best interest of the team. Certainly, we know that’s an important position. We know that the fans want to know. We know that you (media) want to know. We know that you guys are trying to do your jobs. When we decide on who that guy is, we’ll make sure we tell everybody and move on.”
The battle for the top spot is between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, with Tom Savage unlikely to move higher than #3. And much like the QB derby in Buffalo that was discussed here last week, there may not be the kind of #1 that can be leading a team to a playoff win in January, but the fact that there is a fight for the position can mean a lot in the pre-season.
Hoyer got the start against San Francisco, and led a quick TD drive, but it was Mallett that got more work, going 10-11 for 90 yards. Savage turned in an 8-14-97 line in the second half, as the Texans handled San Francisco rather easily (first downs were 22-8 and total offense 400-199). This week it will be Mallett getting the start, although O’Brien has not detailed how long he will play.
Here is what you should like – a genuine competition not only means the QBs going hard, but over the next two games more aggressive game plans. The Hoyer/Mallett primary needs to be evaluated on a lot of different fronts, and that not only means a more open playbook, but also some of the other skill position starters playing deeper into the game. It is not just about making a fair QB evaluation, but about developing some chemistry with the other skill guys, because there are so many new faces on board, without veterans Andre Johnson and Arian Foster taking the lead (those two accounted for 43 percent of all Houston completions last year).
Here is what you should not like – the Texans may easily be a step or two behind in terms of offensive chemistry when the regular season begins. There were 13 different players that caught at least one pass vs. San Francisco, which the glass half full reads as a lot of depth, and the glass half empty as no particular players having secured their spots. There are 12 wide receivers still in camp, an unusually high number, and the reps needed for either Hoyer or Mallett to get in sync with any of them is a major challenge.
Clouding the picture even more is the situation at RB, where the replacement for Foster may not even be on the roster yet. They brought in Pierre Thomas for negotiations but could not reach a deal, and the waiver wires will likely be watched closely, since Alfred Blue average a full 1.7 less per carry than Foster last year, and may not be ready for a full time slot.
You should like the Houston offense in the pre-season. The Texans may not be good, but they will be trying harder than most other attacks, and that will lead to some production. You should also be prepared to drop their grad once they begin keeping score for real.
In the Sights…
There is a massive gap between the abilities of Corey Kluber and Joe Kelly, far greater than what tonight’s price in Fenway is showing. There is apparently some belief that Kelly has turned his game around in a 3-0 run, a diagnosis I do not believe is correct, and that puts #965 Cleveland into play.
Kluber is in a special place right now. Since the All Star break it has been 45 Ks vs. only 34 Hits allowed, and three times in his last four games he has gone the distance, at PPI counts of 12.4, 11.1 and 10.9 in those outings. He is attacking the strike zone with flair, 27 Ks vs. only 3 BB through that span, and having only needed 98 pitches to dispatch the Twins in his last outing, his third straight game of 100 or fewer, he should be fresh for this task.
Meanwhile Kelly brings the appearance of momentum in a 3-0 August run, but that comes at a 4.41 allowance with a 1.53 WHIP, and his command issues have not gone away – those wins were at PPI counts of 18.8, 18.0 and 17.7, taking him to 11 consecutive starts of 15.9 or higher. A patient Cleveland lineup that leads the A.L. in BB% at 8.9 is the ideal way to exploit his weaknesses
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