Point Blank – June 23
Learning to trust Ubaldo Jimenez (from the “Things you never thought you would do” files)…On the return of Stephen Strasburg (should this be charted as his 2015 debut?)…Understanding Alex Wood…
Something I should probably make some sort of a disclaimer for just about every column is that there are two sets of power ratings for teams and performers across all sports. The first is a number, which you would easily recognize, showing the projected abilities for the game at hand. The second is a letter, which is not as easily understood. That letter is the degree of confidence in the numerical power rating. Developing that second rating is a valuable exercise, because it forces some serious consideration into the nooks and crannies of the sporting world, and puts consistency under the spotlight. So a player getting an “A” grade does not mean that he is a quality performer; it instead indicates that he has shown a consistency through which his power rating can be trusted. I haven’t had an “A” next to Ubaldo Jimenez since 2010. That may be about to change.
The letter grade for Jimenez probably should have been upgraded already, but there has been such a hesitancy off of his disastrous 2014, a 6-9/4.81 bottom line in which his BB/9 count reached an astronomical 5.5, and he was so out of sorts that the Orioles only gave him two starts after the middle of August. He then suffered the rather humbling relegation to being a spectator in the playoffs, even more deflating for a guy that had signed for $50 million over four years, and he was left off the roster for the ALCS.
Instead of pouting or showing a loss of esteem, the Baltimore right-hander came to spring training ready to work, and what seemed like a rather subtle notion at the time has paid major dividends. Jimenez is from the Dominican Republic, and fellow Dominican Ramon Martinez, older brother of Pedro, was brought in as a pitching instructor. It did not take long for the two of them to click, and it was Martinez that was able to get Jimenez to focus more on the simpler mechanics, instead of trying to do too much. At 6-5/210 he possesses major physical skills, but the lure of the radar guns and strikeouts seemed to dominate his focus. The fact that he was also rushed, never working at the A level, and finding his way into the Colorado rotation in 2007, after only one full season in the Minors, may have played a part. He was never really taught how to harness those skills; instead being allowed, perhaps even encouraged, to let it fly (seriously, how well have the Rockies done at developing home-grown pitching through the years; it isn’t all about Coors).
In 2009 and 2010, the Jimenez fastball averaged 96 mpg. This season it is down to 90.6. Do not take that as a bad sign; by slowing down he is finding the strike zone much more often, going from his career-worst BB/9 to what would be his best, at 2.9. He is throwing more sinkers, and learning that because of his physical gifts, that pitch has a lot of movement (from catcher Caleb Joseph – “With the sinker, it's going to move a lot more than your traditional four-seam. So, anytime I can tell him how it's moving - hey, it's moving more, or it's moving less today - we can adjust where we start it.")
All of this is a way of saying that when you look at his 5-3/3.27, with a 3.43 FIP, you might not take a second glance. It is good stuff, but does not set off fireworks. Except that the pieces to the puzzle that have come together for his 2015 season are believable, and that consistency is something that can be trusted going forward. Which means that with an offense backing him up that is #6 in OPS, and a decent bullpen, the favorable number rating may get him in to play often, with the letter grade allowing for the confidence to invest.
Is it a return, or a beginning, for Stephen Strasburg?
Those of you that have been reading faithfully since the start of this MLB season have been through multiple takes on Strasburg, and what was missing from his arsenal. When a guy with some of the best stuff in the sport, and one of the highest reputations, opens 3-5/6.55 there were major alarms going off. Yes, there was some of baseball’s geometry in play, a .389 BABIP that will assuredly come down, and as such FIP was kinder to him a 3.97. But there was something missing – his K/9 rate was down from a career 10.3 to 8.9, and his SwS% even more alarming, from 11.0 to 7.4. Batters were making contact more often, and it was good contact.
The theory can be proposed that there were actually two injuries that led to much of this. The first was to an ankle back in spring straining, the second coming from changing his mechanics a bit to compensate for the first. Strasburg was finally shelved after lasting just one inning at Cincinnati on May 29, closing a stretch of five starts in which he could complete only 15 IP, allowing 18 earned runs in the process, including five homers.
Now two issues emerge for the serious handicapper. The first is what to expect tonight, and I believe it will be positive. Strasburg looked like himself in a rehab start at AA Harrisburg, and because his rhythm was good, they even had him throw the equivalent of another inning in the bullpen to maintain it, before hitting the showers. After being called back up he had a bullpen session over the weekend in which he also looked sharp. Hence more confidence than usual for someone returning from the DL – he is too important a piece of the long-term puzzle for the Nationals to take much of a gamble, and if they are making the call to send him out there when Tanner Roark is fresh and ready, having been off since last Tuesday, it means confidence in Strasburg’s readiness.
Second is what to do with those first 45 1/3 innings of 2015, and my suggestion is to be ready to discount quickly. The reason he was written about so often on these pages was the fact that he was noticeably so far off of his game. If indeed that was the result of making bad adjustments to deal through the ankle injury, then it becomes data of little value in terms of predicting his outings going forward. That aspect of reducing the weight of results is a key one that has been written here before, but should be refreshed a couple of times each year, and tomorrow will be the ideal opportunity for a field trip to that area.
And as for Alex Wood…
The flip side of tonight’s Atlanta/Washington also appears to bring a bit of a conundrum, Wood maintaining a steady opening pace at 4-4/3.40 despite what appears to be a major loss of pop, his K/9 rate sitting at 6.8, off of a career 8.4. Since early-season rises or drops for various pitchers in that category have been a running topic, some might isolate his numbers to look for signs of a decline ahead, but in this instance there need not be concerns.
Wood’s drop in the category is more a result of accepting the routines of a starter’s role, which is much different than his earlier bullpen work. In 2013-14, he averaged 10.2 K/9 as a reliever, when his pitches were limited and he can cut loose. Now that he knows he is out there to eat innings it is simply a different way of pacing himself. There is no need to be concerned about the drop in his K counts.
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