Point Blank – May 27
Did the Cavs leave a good enough impression? (Playoff Passages #36)…Does the new scoreboard mean less scoring in Chicago?...In the Sights: Some runs are worth more than others…
Cleveland 118 Atlanta 88
There is not much to say about the game itself, perhaps the most notable item being Kyrie Irving getting a brief workout over 21:58 in which he relatively looked in sync, with 16 points, four rebounds, five assists and only one turnover. With more than a week off until the Finals, he can be counted on to be a factor. But much of the outcome stemmed from the Hawks lacking much will to compete, getting whipped 56-39 on the boards, allowing 49.4 percent shooting, and impatiently jacking up 32 three-point attempts (only making five). Their 60-22 regular season record will be difficult to put into perspective, a sporting eclipse in which seemingly everything fell into alignment for a while, but the talent was not there to sustain it.
Here is what matters going forward. In the days ahead I will be making a Golden State case over Cleveland for the championship trophy, a series that I believe may not last very long. There will be two keys – first is that Draymond Green can defend LeBron James about as well as any individual player can, and that the ability to rotate Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala against James as well gives Steve Kerr some legitimate options. Second is that the Warriors win just about all other matchups, and play with a tighter chemistry because they have been together so much longer. Even with Irving back, three of the top seven in the Cleveland rotation were not Cavaliers yet when the calendar turned to 2015.
Until last night, the problem with those notions was going to be finding value to get them into play. In back-room discussions there has been talk of Golden State opening as high as -300, which means that the advantages I see the Warriors as having in the series are not necessarily going to provide edges over the marketplace. Others see it to. That is why there became a subtle rooting interest in an all-out blowout as Game #4 unfolded last night, the hope that perhaps a dominating performance by the Cavaliers might resonate enough as the last impression before the Finals to perhaps shave a few coins off of that line. Does that notion of “the markets still weigh heaviest what they saw last” still carry the meaning it once did? Here’s hoping for a -250 or less to appear when the opener gets posted, which should be a few minutes after Game #5 in the Western Conference tonight.
On Scoreboards, and Scoring, in Wrigley
There will not be much happening on the new scoreboard in Wrigley when Max Scherzer and Jon Lester square off tonight, likely a series of zeroes with an in-wind. But that new jumbotron in left field is becoming an intriguing phenomenon already, and one that bears close scrutiny.
As noted here earlier in the season, to properly evaluate pitchers and offense when they play on Chicago’s north side, Wrigley should be charted as at least two different ballparks, and even better three. You can use wind-in (Totals of 7.5 or less), wind-neutral (Totals of 8-9.5) and wind-out (Totals of 10 or more) as the parameters, and come away with better ratings. Or at least that used to be the case. It is important to note that wind was a big factor in this ballpark in the past partially because of the setting, not all that far from Lake Michigan, but also because it is built in a way in which wind can have a full impact – the low outfield structure allows the breezes to come through regardless of their direction.
That may be changing. While it is early in the sampling, there have been four Totals in double figures so far, and those games have played 4-0 to the Under, falling 22 runs short of the projections. In other words, not even close. Could it be that the large scoreboard in left not only blocks the out-wind from the south from blowing through as it usually does, but can actually turn that wind back around a bit? This bears full attention as the situations present themselves this summer, but for now at least be aware that past databases built around wind impact may have had their value reduced.
In the Sights…
There was some good discussion in the post-column thread yesterday about how to handle a setting like the one Clayton Kershaw provided last night, a game in which the timing and logic called to the Dodgers, but the price point did not leave breathing room. And while my own handicapping models rarely bring involvement with single-game favorites or underdogs at 240 or higher, it is important to bring chalk into the arena at some of the intermediate levels, because there are opportunities available against the markets rate that often get overlooked. Many times you will read or hear someone propose “You should never lay more than -150 in any baseball game”, and that has become so common over time that many do shy away from those shelves, allowing for some occasional laziness by the oddsmakers to go undetected. Today there is a setting that fits; not so much of the guys setting the lines making a mistake, but rather a simply difficult price to make, with #970 Tampa Bay Run Line (1:10 Eastern start).
You will have to lay in the -160 range for this ticket, but I get the price at being closer to -200. With 6’s becoming the common Total it is taking advantage of the value of the +1.5 that is being purchased, an extreme in this case, and also the ability of Chris Archer to handle this lineup, and keep the Rays in the game.
Archer is the real thing, with an ability to get strikeouts and ground-balls that makes for a terrific repertoire, and of the pitchers that have logged at lest 60 IP so far, FIP rates him #6. Tampa Bay will rarely be out of a game when he is on the mound, and you can see that in the 8-2 as +1.5 so far this season, taking the run to 48-17 over the last three campaigns. Now he faces a lineup with little experience against him, Robinson Cano being the only Mariner with 10 or more PAs, and Cano is 0-10 with three Ks. I will call on Archer to match Felix Hernandez pitch-for-pitch in this one, and note that for as solid as King Felix has been this season, his FIP is actually higher than Archer’s (3.39), and Seattle is just 4-5 as -1.5 when he has been on the hill. There can also be a door open in the latter stages, with Fernando Rodney carrying a fatigue rating, off of 44 pitches in the first two games of this series, which gets magnified by the night-to-day transition.
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