Point Blank – May 5
The Playoff Passages #17 – Who’s on First, Hoops style, at Cleveland (and David Blatt was Abbott); Blake Griffin’s “Magic” act (in the second half, the Houston defense disappeared)…In the Sights: It might get grisly for Memphis…
I am not sure that any result that came out of Cleveland last night could be viewed as a surprise, given the uncertainty of the player rotations. But the second half in Houston on Monday was nothing less than a complete shock, the Rockets defense offending basketball sensibilities in a way that is rarely seen at playoff time. Hell, it is hard to think of a game during the regular season when the Knicks were that bad…
Chicago 99 Cleveland 92
This is not going to be an easy series to handicap. The problem going in to Game #1 was that it was not only difficult to predict the Cleveland rotation in terms of who would play and how long, but also in terms of how they would configure on defense. Who was going to guard who? And the Cavalier mix also produced issues for Tom Thibodeau, who could not plan for any given grouping. So in sitting and watching intently for In-Running clues, what were the first visuals?
Cleveland had a natural #3 starting at the #4, but guarding a #5, with a #5 guarding a #4. Meanwhile Chicago had a #4 guarding a #5; a #2 guarding that natural #3 that was playing at #4; and a #5 guarding a #2 (which you just see all of the time, don’t you?). So one could not help but think of this classic, while trying to at least begin to figure it out (and a little levity will also help when the subject of the Houston defense comes up in a bit):
/<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oWOZD7q35_A"></iframe>
But could anything from game #1 really be learned? Not a lot, because the rotation that David Blatt sent out to start the game was not the one he finished with. Mike Miller started at the #3, with LeBron James at #4, and was pulled at 5:03, Cleveland already down 21-8. The defense was atrocious. There had been a notion presented here that James could move to power forward, and actually guard Joakim Noah, and that part of the equation worked (Noah had four points and four rebounds, through little offensive activity, on the night). But nothing else did early - when Miller left the Bulls were on pace to have 35 assists.
By halftime Cleveland had cut the deficit back to five, so it was Miller time again to begin the third quarter. There was a Cavalier spark to tie the game at 53-all, but that only ignited a 15-0 Chicago run, Miller being pulled at 6:53 after most of it had taken place, and the experiment of that starting lineup was over – Cleveland was -20 in the 16:08 that Miller was on the court. For most of the fourth quarter it was Tristan Thompson and Matthew Delladova on the floor, an attempt to chase by going smaller.
The lessons are not easy to decipher, because it is difficult to project what lineup Blatt will open game #2 with. But there is a key storyline that may be a definer for this series - how much the chemistry of a group playing together can mean. Take a look at the +/- for the more settled Chicago starters:
Minutes +/-
Gasol 34:42 +17
Noah 28:49 +13
Dunleavy 39:10 +10
Butler 44:12 +10
Rose 38:33 +10
Another lesson is that neither Derrick Rose nor Kyrie Irving will guard each other all that well. One of the best signs for Rose since the playoffs started was having 20 of his 26 FG attempts come from inside the three-point arc, although he did not get to the free throw line. But here is the Rose issue that is worthy of attention, the big gap in performance when having multiple days off before a game, and playing with only one day off (which will be the case on Wednesday), so far in these playoffs:
PPG FG% A’s TO’s
2+ days rest 24.3 48.1 27 11
One day 14.0 29.8 17 17
A smoothly-functioning Bulls offense shot 50 percent from the field, knocked down 10-18 triples, and only turned the ball over 10 times. Will Blatt acknowledge that by moving James back to the #3 and starting Thompson, putting his best defensive lineup on the floor to begin the game? The Cavaliers were +4 in the 37:00 that Thompson played (eight rebounds, two blocked shots). But that lineup also leaves Cleveland much easier to guard, and while Iman Shumpert scored 22 points, making four triples, a significant part of that is the Chicago defense being more than happy for Cavalier possessions ending with Shumpert shooting from long range.
The markets will likely make “Zig” the early direction here, and you will almost assuredly read or hear that James has led his teams to a 30-15 ATS run off of a playoff loss in his career. But if they push past -6 they have taken it beyond the current state of affairs for these teams, especially given how unsettled the Cleveland rotations are.
L.A. Clippers 117 Houston 101
Sometimes you watch a game, go to sleep, and then get up and go straight to the box scores and play-by-play because you wonder if you might have hallucinated during the night. A Clipper offense without Chris Paul, one that managed just 46 points in the first half against Houston, shooting 42.2 percent and turning the ball over a dozen times, could not possibly have been capable of 71 points in 24 minutes after intermission, a sizzling 1.33 PPP rate. But the official recounts match what the eyes saw, and while the totality of that half is difficult to explain, it does go back to a pair of running themes from this page through the playoffs so far – 1. Blake Griffin’s all-around floor game is becoming a marvel; and 2. The Rockets do not have a collective set of basketball egos that can enable them to equal the sum of their physical parts (or, perhaps from the neck up, this really is the sum of those parts).
Griffin is off of back-to-back triple doubles when his team needed it most (Wilt Chamberlain and John Havlicek are the only non-guards to do that at playoff time), but while the athleticism to soar, score and rebound around the basket have been well known through the years, it is his savvy with the ball that is making such a difference now. He had more assists (10) than shots taken (eight) in that second half explosion, literally running the show for a team that does not have a natural #1 on the roster to fill in for Paul. It was reminiscent of that “Magical” night when a young man named Johnson played center for the Lakers to clinch a championship long ago, running the offense from that spot (http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/magic-plays-center-as-a-rookie-wins-championship). But it was much more than a one-night thing for Griffin, after eight playoff games he is now at 65 assists vs. 24 turnovers. How good is that? He would have rated #5 in the NBA in assists-per-game during the regular season at that clip, and the A/TO ratio would be #10 of players that went at least 24:00 per game. That is special.
Part of that was made possible, of course, by the Rockets being a disaster in terms of basketball fundamentals. The defense in the second half was every bit as bad as the numbers make it appear to be. There were 23 turnovers on offense, leading to 34 LAC points. And instead of finding the toughness to challenge from behind in the final stanza it was a meltdown, with just three defensive rebounds over the final 6:30
Here is where it now gets intriguing, and will make the early offerings from the marketplace fascinating to watch (no one has dared post yet) – does Doc Rivers sit Paul out again, in order to get him fully healthy? There has to be a major temptation to do that. It is unlikely that the Clippers come anywhere near the level of Monday’s second half offensive efficiency again, but with the full knowledge that Stephen Curry and the Warriors are ahead in the next round, it is not an unreasonable gamble. Looking too far ahead can haunt a coach and a team, but with essentially a service break in their pockets, do not be surprised if that becomes the plan. The next question is whether Houston even have a plan…
In the Sights…
There was a theme developed here in breaking down game #1 of the Warriors/Grizzlies series yesterday – for as one-sided as the flow appeared to be throughout the game, the notion was that Memphis was playing about as well as possible. Further study re-inforced that, and as such it is time to get behind #712 Golden State tonight (Pinny is helping a bit by going to -10), in a game that has a chance to break wide open.
Memphis was able to keep the tempo down on Sunday. The Grizzlies shot 45.2 percent, taking advantage of foul trouble to Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to convert often near the basket. They were only -2 on the boards, and had the same number of turnovers. It was a pretty good floor game. And yet it was a 15-point margin, despite the Warriors showing some rust from having had more than a full week off, and not having any of the starters reach 38:00 of playing time. Tonight I expect to see the Memphis execution level drop a notch under heavier Golden State defensive pressure, and there is no concern about Kerr managing the minutes of his players to keep them fresh – they will not play again until Saturday in Memphis, and if anything there is a focus to go sharp for as along as possible tonight, in what could be the last game on this court until the opening of the conference finals.
These teams have met three times over the past five weeks, the biggest Warrior lead in each being 24, 32 and 20. That is what this matchup is, and when the best team in the league is ready to play near their peak level, it is difficult to see the Grizzlies keeping the game in single digits.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)