Point Blank – May 3
The Playoff Passages #15 – A classic fight goes the distance (no, not the yawner in Las Vegas); A Cutty Sark toast to Paul, Doc and Griffin for moving on, and to Pops and Duncan, for the memories
Those were heavyweights, and in time the Spurs/Clippers series may go down as one of the best first rounder’s ever played, one in which there really was not a loser. Except for the sport, which now gets robbed of its #2 or #3 team too early.
LA Clippers 111 San Antonio 109
There was so much at play here, in a game in which there were 31 lead changes, that the game deserves a proper review, and Sunday morning affords the time to do just that.
Item: Chris Paul was a competitor
Yes, this one is stating the obvious, but he was the focus point when a Clippers ticket was put “In the Sights…” two weeks ago, and was the key performer throughout. Paul managed to gut out a game in which he was not 100 percent for long stretches, yet still produced 27 points and six assists, leading to a +6 in his 37:01 of court time (the flip side, going back to the pre-series handicap, was a -8 over the 33:40 for Tony Parker). And, of course, when it was on the line late, he was able to make the finishes on offense. You want to talk point guard savvy and efficiency? Over the last three games of the series, Paul had 31 assists, eight steals, and just two turnovers. Let those numbers sink in.
The question now becomes how healthy he will be for Monday night in Houston, the NBA’s absurdity of forcing that series to begin so early becoming a genuine factor in its outcome. Naturally there will be more to come on that front as details become available.
Item: Big Baby was indeed Big
A lot of yesterday’s column focused on what might have been an unexpected place, the status of Glen Davis. No, he does not produce measurables, except in one category – the minutes he can burn up. It was only 10:52 on Saturday, about two minutes less than his usual role in this series, but this time there were numbers, with six points and three rebounds. It is his ability to get on the floor that enables Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to take the occasional breather, and it particularly matters in the case of the latter when Doc Rivers can tactically use him to eliminate hack-a-Jordan possibilities. Rivers did not do that in Saturday’s latter stages, which leads to a key handicapping factor that I will get to in a moment, since it nearly turned the series in San Antonio’s favor. But first a little more on Davis.
How important is he? Hedo Turkoglu got on the court for 2:38, and when he first appeared the Spurs ran a play for Tiago Splitter to score in the post. It was likely the only play run for Splitter the entire series. He scored easily over Turkoglu and drew a foul on the play, but missed the FT attempt. Rivers can escape with Turkoglu playing a few minutes out on the perimeter, but he can’t be a #4 or #5 near the basket. Hence something that will be a factor vs. Houston – while the Rockets can hack-a-Jordan, the Clippers can’t hack-a-Howard, because they do not have enough fouls to give inside. Advantage to Kevin McHale on that front (from an X’s and O’s standpoint, he won’t have many going forward).
Item: This time Gregg Popovich won hack-a-Jordan (though it did not work out on the scoreboard)
There has been a lot of discussion across high-end handicapping circles about the strategy of Popovich sending Jordan to the line, and for much of the series it was producing a slightly negative result for San Antonio, largely in terms of disrupting the game flow. But in game #7, one of the effects Pops was looking for came into play – he literally forced Jordan off the court for a span of 4:03 at crunch time; Rivers not willing to gamble on his center’s ability to make free throws.
Over that time the Clippers won the scoreboard by a single point, but it was Popovich that won the basketball strategy. In that stretch there were 13 available rebounds, and the Spurs came up with 10 of them. And look at how the official play-by-play records the San Antonio baskets through that span:
4:39 Tim Duncan makes layup
4:00 Tony Parker makes 4-foot two point shot
3:11 Tim Duncan makes layup
2:47 Kawhi Leonard makes layup
1:23 Tony Parker makes two point shot
Yes, there is the appearance of a big gap between the last two, but it was not because of L.A. successes – the final Parker make came after a couple of offensive rebounds kept a possession alive. The Clippers neither defended the basket well, nor were able to hit the boards, without Jordan. So how did the Spurs lose the sequence? Los Angeles took three three-pointers in that cycle, and made all of them, two from J. J. Redick and one from Matt Barnes. That was enough to hang on until Jordan could get back on the court. This time Pops held the better hand; but those shots enabled Doc to fill an inside straight.
Item: But Doc had his moment, also
Last night was the seventh game #7 for Rivers, matching Pat Riley in the all-time NBA annals. And during a key late timeout he repeated a word that was surprising to hear, yet so meaningful in the moment; he twice told his players to “breathe”. It is not just about diagramming plays.
Item: Danny Green’s defense was special
Green had 16 points, eight rebounds and three assists, which is easy enough to see, and the Spurs were a +4 over his 34:54. But his defense was one of the stories of the night, five blocked shots and two steals. As that part of his game improves, he and Kawhi Leonard (who only had an average outing, after also struggling in game #6) become an intriguing next-generation for the Spurts to build around. This assumes he re-signs, but if Duncan and Ginobli do not return, there is a lot of cap money freed up.
Item: Blake Griffin’s floor game
Griffin has long shed the notion of merely being an athletic freak that could finish around the basket, and this series providing a shining example. Yes, 24.1 points and 13.1 rebounds per game is pretty special; call it “Duncanish”, which should become a playoff label for the generations ahead. But to also come up with 52 assists, while only turning it over 19 times, is remarkable from his position. That ratio of 2.74:1 would have placed him #8 in the entire NBA during the regular season, of players that averaged 24:00 per game or more. But this was not a regular season tour across the usual league sampling, this was seven games against the Spurts.
Item: As for Duncan…
It was noted before the series started that if the Clippers cashed the ticket, there would be a Cutty Sark lifted in tribute. It is not anywhere near my list of favorites, but it has become the thing to do in the Chris Paul era, one in which LAC tickets are put into play, and cashed, rather often. But it was also noted that it would be a bittersweet taste, largely because the victory from one side might mean the end of an era for another. And there have been a hell of a lot of San Antonio tickets cashed during the Duncan years.
If this is to be his end, he absolutely went out in style – a double-double in every series game except when not needed in the game #3 blowout, and last night it was 27 points and 11 rebounds, including those two clutch late free throws that tied the score, before Paul’s game-winner. It has been written a couple of times through previous columns that he turned the clock back about a decade in terms of his energy in this series, and perhaps that might be enough to call for another season, even though he turned 39 last week. If not, he will be missed; when you do this day-in and day-out over the span of decades it becomes much more than numbers, and the level Duncan played at brought a rare consistency and dignity to a sport generally lacking in such.
Yes, that was a lot of words. The game, and the series, earned them.
Item: What Next?
Remember back to those April columns detailing the scramble for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, a quest that was bringing an Indiana Jones level of passion? How much it mattered is showing now. Not only did Houston earn the benefit of only having to scrimmage Dallas for a bit, but now the Rockets have a home court advantage, and the added edge of facing the Clippers while they are going to be physically drained, and perhaps Paul being damaged goods.
Much of that series analysis will have to wait until tomorrow, since no major stores have posted yet, Paul’s status being so important. Even then it is a tough price to make – the Clippers play much smarter for much longer, but the Rockets are deeper and will begin significantly fresher.
Quoteworthy
“Victor Espinoza hit American Pharaoah harder in the stretch.” From Mike Lupica, on ESPN’s The Sports Reporters this morning, in describing the Pacquiao/Mayweather fight. One of those, “gee, I wish I had said that first”, moments.
In the Sights…
(a reprint from yesterday, in case anyone missed it)
David Stern understood $$$, and in his three decades as NBA commissioner he found ways for the league to make a lot of it. Much of that stemmed through television contracts, but what was a strength of his in some regards was a glaring weakness in another – he routinely allowed television to impact game results, especially at playoff time. Eventually Adam Silver will likely correct that, and there are mixed feelings on my end – while it is beyond ridiculous for Atlanta to open a playoff series early Sunday afternoon, through the years this has also provided an advantage to the serious handicapper.
If you have been following along through the playoffs, you are likely already anticipating a play on 705 Washington for Sunday, even though the value is not as substantial as it might have been (remember one column noting that a prime off-shore operator was actually projecting the Hawks to be in the -400/450 range before the playoffs began, and more evidence came to light on the current state of these teams). At +5 or better it is a fit; you can take all of the +5.5 you want this morning, and it is best to go now.
The key here is getting two positive aspects lining up – the first being that since the playoffs started, the Wizards have flat-out been the better team, and there are intriguing matchup aspects to the series. Washington has the best point guard on the floor, which absolutely matters in close games, and the Wizards were not only better defensively than Atlanta by a small margin during the regular season (.07 PPP), but on the boards it was decisive – #4 vs. #27. Then add the confidence level that matters in front of a hostile crowd, with the Wizards on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in road playoff games the last two seasons, beating the market expectations by 96.5 across those games. And six of the eight were played without the veteran leadership of Paul Pierce.
So even in a fair setting, Washington could stay within the price, and there is a good chance of the Wizards being in the hunt to win outright. But it is not a fair setting. Although Randy Wittman’s prep skills are not upper tier, he and his team have likely been thinking Hawks for a full week already (they are likely savvy enough to know that pondering Brooklyn would have been a waste of time), and are fresh and rested. Meanwhile Mike Budenholzer’s team may get little more than a shootaround today to think John Wall & Co., if even that, having traveled for the third time this week.
This should not happen – it should be Chicago/Cleveland opening on Sunday, and Washington/Atlanta on Monday night. But it does happen, and is worth taking advantage of.
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