Point Blank – April 30
The Playoff Passages #12 – Flipping coins at 11-10; Déjà vu, in Atlanta; The Grizzlies won the rights to get swept…A quick two cents, on the NFL Draft (QB or not QB?)…
Yes, Adam Silver, this is what betting can do for your league – the two Wednesday games brought pointspread decisions that had bettors riveted to the action, with both Sides and both Totals in doubt with 1:00 to play, and in a couple instances the seemingly more savvy wagers getting turned inside-out in the process.
Atlanta 107 Brooklyn 97
If you stored this one in your DVR without labeling properly it would come across as a re-run; in all three games in Atlanta the Hawks jumped out to a big early lead, going up by at least nine in the 1st Quarter, before then having those lapses that enabled the Nets to get back into the hunt. It shows the issue of the Atlanta talent only being a little above average, and not necessarily the kind that plays into June – they have to execute consistently to maintain a high level throughout games, and that is not easy to do in the playoffs, when the competition gets tougher. What has been glaring in this series is that the resistance coming from Brooklyn has not been all that special, despite how close it has been.
For all of the Net failures, big games off of the bench from Jarrett Jack and Alan Anderson (combined for 41 points, 11 rebounds and six assists) had them down only 97-95, and with possession of the ball, at 1:45. Those that had +9 in their pockets had to be confident about their tickets. But after a Joe Johnson jumper that could have tied the game missed, that old, slow and often disinterested Brooklyn defense (the latter, even at crunch time) gave up baskets on the next three possessions, and then there was the pointspread clincher, the decision to foul down by eight with 0:20 remaining.
For Atlanta the minutes of the starting cast ramped up, with DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver all into the 40’s, a plateau no player had reached outside of the OT in Game #4, and the offensive chemistry was solid – all five starters were in double figures. Carroll, Jeff Teague and Al Horford reached 20 or more, and even through the high minute counts the starters only had eight turnovers, while coming up with nine steals. When any starting group has more steals than turnovers it is an example of the floor game being dominant, and with the boards also being won 43-35, that part of the series has turned, perhaps for good. That is significant – while Brooklyn tickets went into the pocket in the two home games in this series, the X’s and O’s win by Atlanta last night was more decisive than the late run-out will certify. Most of those earlier investments were plays against the Hawks, in Game #6 it would require a play on the Nets. That is a different equation, and at -3 the gears might even shift.
Memphis 99 Portland 93
In watching this one there was a sense of foreboding that was developing over the course of the evening – could either of these teams at their current levels win a single game against Golden State in the next round? This will be the last chance this season to talk about the Trail Blazers, who managed to lose despite knocking down 13-33 from 3-point range, compared to just 1-14 for the Grizzlies. To have that disparity and not win means that you have to be really bad in other areas, and they were. They got whipped 56-38 on the boards, had as many turnovers (13) as assists, and could only come up with one steal on defense (Memphis had 10). It was an inept floor game, but they stayed in the hunt because for the second game in a row, C. J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard came off the bench to make shots.
As for Memphis, for as trite as it is, the best reference is that the Grizzlies are who they are. They play with chemistry and grind away, which was enough in this series. But Mike Conley does not appear to be ready for the opener vs. the Warriors, if indeed he can be a factor in that series at all (they will be trying to fit him with a mask that he can wear while playing). His absence puts far too much on the shoulders of Nick Calathes, who was competent vs. Portland, but does not have the upside to his game needed to compete against Stephen Curry. Golden State will bring much more defensive pressure than the passive Trail Blazers (there are few worse defensive PGs in the league than Damian Lillard), which can further take the Memphis half-court game out of rhythm.
As for the pointspread, it was quite a ride. While the game closed Memphis -6, -5.5 wrote the most action during the day, with the Total dropping from 191.5 to 189.5. With the game sitting on 171 with 1:00 remaining, an Under backer had a good position, but then came the circus. Under became Over, and Portland twice got beneath the spread over the final possessions, with the outcome not set until Courtney Lee made a pair of FTs at 0:14, and Marc Gasol blocked Nicolas Batum’s jumper on the ensuing trip. And hence the magic of Sports Betting – an otherwise uninteresting affair between two of the NBA’s smaller markets ended up bringing high drama.
It is likely that the only drama in Memphis/Golden State will come from the individual point spread outcomes (-675 for the series goes on the wish list)…
Meanwhile in the NFL…
The very early stages of the draft this evening will be watched about as closely as any in recent memory, with a heightened focus because of all of the various stories out there involving Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. And in truth it is interesting as hell. It should be; there is a lot at stake here.
Over the course of recent weeks, and in much of today’s build-up, you will read and listen to legacies of 1st Round QB failures, and there have indeed been many recently. A lot of teams have panicked at the position because of need, and as such several lesser talents were forced up into the opening round. But to view the top two this season under that umbrella may be wrong. Here is why -
The NFL is in a special era right now of great veteran QBs. That era will be coming to an end soon. To properly grade the value of Winston or Mariota is to understand them in this context. Likely gone by 2018 will be (alphabetically): Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, both Manning’s, Carson Palmer (if he even returns at all), Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisbeger, Tony Romo and Matt Ryan. Aaron Rodgers will also be nearing his twilight. The recent drafts have not provided much in terms of replacing that cast, with the 2013 group being among the worst in this century, so here is a context I believe is correct – Winston and Mariota are head-and-shoulders above most of their peers in a short generation cycle. Try placing them within the group of 1st Rounders over the previous five drafts:
2010 – Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011 – Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2012 – Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013 – E. J. Manuel
2014 – Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
I peg Winston #3 compared to that list, trailing only Luck and Newton. Mariota just a smidgen below. Meanwhile the remaining 2015 class is abysmal (remember the discussions of the College All Star games on this page back in January, detailing how unimpressed the NFL scouts were during those practice sessions, which translated exactly into the way those games were played), and the early projections for 2016 are not positive.
Therein lies the key. The reason why I would be going out of my way for Winston or Mariota is that I believe they are a clear cut above most from their generation. Yes, they have their weaknesses, but those they will be competing against in the years to come may have even more. The popularity of the spread offense in college football is not developing NFL-style QBs with much depth, so the opportunity to grab an upper-level talent at the position is one that is worth paying a price for.
About Last Night…
While there are all sorts of various takes on the social repercussions of the White Sox/Orioles playing in front of an empty house at Camden yesterday afternoon, there is one utterly fascinating item that would ordinarily get little notice in the box score – the game was played in 2:03. That was more than a half hour less than any other on the Wednesday board. Yes, a sample of one can often be disregarded as having little meaning. But does that at least give a small idea of just how much time is wasted in most games by players preening for the crowd?
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