Point Blank – April 15
Oh Dear Lord, a Full NBA Board…Last night Randy Wittman wasn’t really the Wizard behind the curtain...Yes, Kyle Gibson is still in “The Drawer”…Looking for support, on run support…
Yesterday’s column focused on much of the silliness that came out of the Monday NBA results, an evening on which you would likely have been better off to just ignore all of the games, than painstakingly go through each of them to try to learn something. Things were naturally quieter on Tuesday’s short card, but not without something that caused some major head scratching at the time. So before moving on to the Wednesday board, and issuing the warnings that you already know are coming (no hurry there – there were private Over/Under wagers in play as to what time Pinny would have lines up for the full card), it is best to look back first.
Item: “They wouldn’t let me take them out”
That is what Randy Wittman offered up in the aftermath of his Washington team losing 99-95 in double-OT at Indianapolis. The reason why had to address the question were these bizarre minute distributions –
Wall 44:19
Gortat 43:31
Porter 42:32
Beal 41:45
Gooden 38:28
bizarre in that the game meant nothing to the Wizard playoff positioning. They are the #6 seed in the East, and were facing a close-out of back-to-back road games to finish the campaign. So why on earth would any savvy coach force his key cogs out to those minutes? And did Wittman’s answer make matters even worse? Here was his next sentence – “If I would have taken them out they probably would have made a scene that probably wouldn’t have been good for television. And national television at that.”
Yes, Wittman tried to sell the notion that he ran the risk of wearing his players down, and possibly even having an injury occur, in order to not make a scene on television. What was driving the players? According to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post, John Wall was prodding Wittman to get back into the game in the second half, to make a full attempt to knock Indiana out of the playoffs, because it was the Pacers that eliminated the Wizards in the second round last May. And somehow Wittman bought into that, and allowed the inmates free reign in the asylum.
That is not how leadership sets a tone as the playoffs approach, and perhaps this explains much of the dysfunction that Washington has had this season, taking a step backwards instead of improving off of a 2013-14 that showed promise. But at least it helps to set up one piece for the Wednesday puzzle – it is most unlikely that any of those key cogs take the court tonight in Cleveland.
Item: What matters tonight
The Wednesday NBA card has a chance to be even sillier than Monday. But there are a few settings that do matter, which can bring a modicum of integrity to at least some of the proceedings -
#8 Seed in the East
Indiana (38-43) and Brooklyn (37-44) are in play. The Pacers had to slog long and hard to put Washington away last night, with George Hill getting stretched out to 48:03. But they go to Memphis still alive, which pumps some adrenaline through the tired bodies. It is the Grizzlies that are now caught in an awkward setting – do they owe it to the Nets, and the NBA, to play a competitive game? Or is David Joerger allowed to rest his players for the playoff grind ahead, especially with Marc Gasol and Jeff Green fighting minor injuries? There is still a chance for Memphis to finish with the #5 seed, instead of the #6, in the West, but that may not be enough motivation to go all-out tonight.
Brooklyn is supposed to go all-out at home vs. Orlando, but with their playoff lives on the line, the Nets were crushed at Milwaukee on Sunday (96-73), and then at home vs. Chicago on Monday night (113-86), losing to the spread by 47 points in the process. It is almost as if they were not interested in extending their season.
#3/#4 Seeds in the East
If the Bulls beat Atlanta tonight they wrap up the #3, with Toronto getting slated at #4. A Chicago loss and a Raptors win flip-flops that. Getting the #3 means facing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round, a small advantage, but it also conjures running into Cleveland in round two. Right now these teams would each fear the Cavaliers much more than Atlanta. But also keep this in mind – the Hawks would much prefer to play Toronto in the second round than the Bulls. By not competing too hard tonight, they can assure that.
#2 Seed in the West
This seeding is much coveted, because it means a first round home court advantage vs. Dallas, a team that no one fears. What also matters in that three-way between the Clippers/Spurs/Rockets is that the team that does not get #2 could fall all the way to #6. So Gregg Popovich has an “Easy in the Big Easy” motivation for this team tonight – win and you host Dallas, lose and you could be on the road against Houston or the Clippers. For Houston it is also naturally must-win, not just to be alive for #2, but also to clinch at least the #5, with a first round at Portland naturally better than having it be against the Clippers. But as always, must-win does not mean “must get a margin”.
#8 Seed in the West
New Orleans makes the playoffs by beating the Spurs. Oklahoma City gets in if the Thunder beat Minnesota, and the Pelicans lose. It is a simple formula. The board will show a major gap in the expectations of those outcomes, and OKC will particularly be over-valued – there is no margin issue, it is only about getting the “W”. CRIS has opened a -14 for their game at Minnesota, and to put that in perspective, only once over their last 25 games have the Thunder won by more than 14 points.
As for the rest of this board, just run away; run far, far away. If the NBA could just push the Kings/Lakers game back a minute tonight, to make it the official final game of the campaign, it would be a fitting tribute to some of the league absurdities – file away the starting lineups for that one, and take note of how many of those players will be starting for anyone when 2015-16 rolls around (some starters may not even make NBA rosters for next season).
(Pinnacle did not have the full board up by 8 AM Pacific. I begin the day 1-0.)
Item: On Kyle Gibson, and “The Drawer”
Gibson takes the mound this evening for the Twins, and there is as much chance of me wagering on that game vs. Kansas City as there is Kings/Lakers. So this is an appropriate time to take you back to a column from last August that not only detailed Gibson’s erratic ways, which were fully in display in his opener vs. Detroit, but also the concept of not having to burden yourself with trying to figure out erratic performers. A good drawer can be an invaluable tool.
About Last Night…
The backing of Carlos Carrasco to continue his streak of torrid pitching never had much of a chance on Tuesday, with his evening ending after eight pitches, and the Indian bats producing at a level at which it would have taken a shutout to win. But there is an additional issue that comes into play that brings interest, yet remains one that I have not found a key to unlock. So perhaps some of you can help.
In losing 4-1, it became the eighth consecutive time that Cleveland has scored two runs or less in a Carrasco start, with the Indians producing only 11 runs over those outings. Others and myself have tried to find some sort of pendulum aspect to use when this happens, in anticipating that eventually the run support will pick up, but it remains elusive. If any of you have something that you would not mind sharing, it would be appreciated.
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