Point Blank – April 9
From the “Rites of Spring”, to the Wrongs (I will spare you from a Stravinsky link)…This CC and Company has an awful cast (cue Ann-Margret daydreams, for the older guys)…The Bulls are still 15-5 with their full starting lineup (and it may not mean a damn thing)
Lunch with Eric Strasser yesterday, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit” provided a great way to deal with the reminders of the long and winding road that is the MLB season. He could deal his frustrations about losing a James Paxton Over ticket on Monday night, and by the time we sat at the table I could already be painfully nostalgic about yesterday’s backing of Ricky Nolasco in the Twins/Tigers First Half Under, with his control nowhere near ready to go (35 of 78 pitches missed the strike zone). It is indeed a long ride, one in which you have to build up edges and let them play out, but there is no way to rush anything. Which means that even when it does seem like time to rush, perhaps inspired by seeing CC Sabathia opening as a favorite for tonight (which the markets quickly corrected), the early MLB season should only be driven at a low gear.
Much of yesterday’s conversation dealt with the transition from Spring Training to playing for keeps, some of which sent us to losers earlier in the week (Eric bemoaning how Paxton’s control has been so off in his last spring outing, while you can recall the Phil Hughes quote I printed yesterday concerning how Nolasco had looked in Florida). It happens. Spring Training can offer clues, but rarely the kind of substance that would have them hold up as evidence in court.
But then there is Sabathia, literally a big story. He intentionally came to camp at 305 pounds, about 30 more than last year, though it is a weight that he had carried earlier in his career. But this is later, perhaps even late, for a 34-year old, and he did not show much of anything at all in Florida, allowing nine earned runs over 10 IP, including three HRs. Publicly he has shrugged that off, noting that previous struggles in March did not portend anything negative once camp broke. But this is different.
When Sabathia deals his first offering tonight, it will be 11 months since he worked from a Major League mound, when his 2014 campaign finished at 3-4/5.28 over eight starts. No flukes there – he was tagged for 58 hits over 46 IP, 10 of them HRs. Yes, you can blame some of that on the degenerative knee condition that cut that season short. But perhaps you shouldn’t. Let’s go back further:
Sabathia since the 2013 All Star Break (120 innings):
ERA: 5.78
HR/9: 1.42
Let’s put that stretch into perspective. How do those numbers compare to the rest of the Major’s? There were 128 pitchers that worked 120 or more innings in 2014, a sample size comparable to what Sabathia has worked since the break in 2013. Only two, Edwin Jackson (6.33) and Justin Masterson (5.88), finished with a worse ERA. Only three, Marco Estrada (1.73), Franklin Morales (1.52), and Hector Noesi (1.46), allowed HRs at a higher rate. That is a rather dubious “CC and Company”, though at least thinking of the grouping that way allows for re-runs of Ann-Margret daydreams (sure, Joe Namath, for the gals).
It would be one thing for a guy that has been on top of his game to have an awful spring, but Sabathia has not been near his peak in quite some time. And the fact that all of that weight has been added to a body recovering from knee problems makes his attempts to return to form even more awkward. The Yankees did the right thing by not forcing many pitches out of their former ace in Spring Training, but could it also be the wrong thing in terms of how well he will be able to pitch tonight? No, there will be no hurry, and the early MLB bet sizes remain small, but it is difficult to not look for a way to play. Given his likely lack of form, but even more probable lack of stamina, nothing special should be expected in terms of production or eating innings. With no Dellin Betances, after he labored through 32 pitches last night, the New York pitching does not lay out well. While the weather in the Bronx will be lousy again, a #965 Toronto Team Total of 3.5 is readily be available in the marketplace, and some of that should find a way into your pockets.
Meanwhile one of Eric’s other insights deserves appreciation – how conveniently the Cubs called off Tuesday’s game vs. St. Louis, several hours ahead of the scheduled first pitch, and weather that did not turn out to be all that bad. The key? When the Cardinals next return to Chicago’s north side, with the make-up likely included on that trip, it will be early July. Some Wrigley improvements will have been completed by then, which means more tickets sold, and Kris Bryant will also be in the Cub lineup. All in all, a rather savvy move by Chicago management
About Last Night, NBA…
It did not take long for the return of Derrick Rose to bring out some of the usual stuff from the Sports Mediaverse, including a few tweets that noted the Bulls being 15-4 with their full starting lineup intact, a win rate bested only by Golden State. That now goes to 15-5 after Chicago was badly out-played in the fourth quarter at Orlando last night, getting out-scored 26-16 over the final stanza. It was a meaningful demise, Bulls failing to take a step towards the #3 seed in the East, and also leaving the prospects of playing a first round series on the road alive.
The numbers from Rose were not pretty. Shooting 3-9 from the field, and having twice as many turnovers (4) as assists (2) is bad enough, but six of his nine FG attempts were from 3-point range. That is disastrous, and it is not merely because he only made one of them. For this team to be what they are capable of being, it has to be Rose getting to the basket to either finish, or force the defense into switches to create openings for others. That was not to be found.
It is the awkward dual issue of not just trying to get Rose into playing shape, but also developing the kind of team chemistry needed to win in the playoffs. Pau Gasol spelled it out well afterwards – “It’s troubling. There’s no question. It’s upsetting. There’s a time where you have to be sharp. You can’t have these type of games. We’re trying to figure out a lot of things right now with guys coming back and different rotations and guys sharing minutes. That’s what happens when you have a deep team. But we have to figure it out quickly. Continuity has been tough, for sure. At times, we look like we’re a little bit all over the place.’’
That would seemingly make tonight’s TNT clash at Miami a key one for the Eye Test, but we may not get to take it. There is already talk that Rose may be held out (he will go through the shoot-around before a decision is made), with Tom Thibodeau not wanting to force him into action in a back-to-back setting unless he shows that he is ready. Or could that be Thibodeau knows that he badly needs to get this win to move closer to at least clinching the #4, and possibly believing that sitting Rose brings the team their best chance? Maybe it will be what the eyes won’t see that tells the tale. But at least do not fall for any takes on Chicago being ready for a playoff surge – that can be an easy story to sell across the various media platforms, but one that could be hazardous to your pockets if you call into the trap.
In the Sights, The Tiger Watch…
And more silliness from the Sports Mediaverse, as the focus shifts The Masters, and in particular to Tiger Woods. It is understandable that they create a buzz for the audience to boost ratings, but in watching the action around Las Vegas, that audience is actually buying in. Yes, Woods has looked better in the prelude, and as a result his odds to win have come crashing down. But neglected through much of the coverage is just how good the rest of this field has become. It has been eight years since this tournament was won with a score worse than eight under par, and for Woods to get through four rounds in that range is far beyond what the current market offerings indicate.
Unfortunately, the menu of anti-Woods props is not a deep one, and you only have a few more hours to take advantage. But you can now play that he won’t make the cut at a plus price, and lay -375 that he won’t make the Top 20. Those are reasonable for small wagers, taking advantage of a reality that may be far from what is being “advertised” from Augusta so far this week.
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