Point Blank – March 19
The Tourney Journey #2 (cue Dorothy, “There’s no place like home”)...Aiming for the calm, during the storm…It was more bad North Florida defense than great Robert Morris offense…The sad saga of a team snubbed…
The frenzy is about to begin, which the last couple of nights in Dayton providing an opening movement to this year’s Big Dance that was exhilarating, even if one of the moves was a little overly-choreographed (which we will get to in a moment). So now you have your brackets, you have your first-round handicapping done, and you have your bankroll in place. The best advice at this point? Just take a deep breath, and be patient.
Many of you are going to watch every game that you have bet, a little different process than during the rest of the sports calendar year. Try to make it a matter of adding insight, not tension, while viewing, and you will have taken a major step towards winning. A lot of these games are going to have major changes in flow, and that has already been the case – three of the four games in Dayton saw a team down double figures in the second half rally to win. You will get caught up in a few of them, and it will be unfolding right in front of you. Be prepared for it, be prepared to accept it as the privilege tax for being in this endeavor, and be prepared to move on to the next handicap without having lost your focus should one of those swings turn against a team you had backed.
If you lose early today, do not chase. If you win early today, do not become extravagant. Work through these brackets session by session, much the way that the better teams will – move the ball around to look for an opening, and only take good shots. A big part of Point Blank through the next three weeks will be sorting through those outcomes, looking for some clarity that will help gain a better feel for the various teams that move on. Which means time to get to Wednesday night…
Dayton 56 Boise State 55 – OK, so do the Flyers beat Boise State on any floor except their own last night? It can’t help but leave a small bittersweet feeling for those that love the sport; otherwise the play-in round provided its best cycle of drama ever. Yet one can come away with a slightly sour taste, a matchup that never should have happened. Had the tournament committee slated either UCLA or Texas into the Wednesday Dayton slot, would there have even been a murmur? They blew this one, and perhaps it was fitting that the game ended as it did, so that there will be an engraved reminder
Credit Leon Rice for taking the high road both before, and afterwards, the latter having to be particularly difficult for him. His Broncos led 53-46 at 3:25, but managed only two free throws the rest of the way, with four missed shots within a couple feet of the basket. Dayton also scored on nine straight possessions, capped by Jordan Silbert’s triple at 0:37 that gave the Flyers their first lead, and it would have been 10 straight had Kendall Pollard not missed both FT attempts at 0:14, those misses keeping Boise backers from having to begin wading into the murky waters of Lake Bad Beat (+4, down three, is an uncomfortable place to be in the final seconds).
Does Dayton score on nine straight possessions without the impact of the crowd? Unlikely. Try this from Archie Miller – “That’s the loudest I’ve ever heard the arena.” And it absolutely impacted the final Bronco play, when Rice wanted to call timeout, but could not accomplish it – “The only chance I would’ve had to get (a timeout) was to jump on the court. It was so loud … it was futile”
Of course the fact that the Flyers needed that crowd to merely escape vs. a team from the weak Mountain West is significant. But it gets tricky again on Friday, when Miller and his team get another unearned break – all they have to do next is “Ease on down the road” to Columbus, about 75 miles from campus. Once again, the committee got it wrong – a #6 seed like Providence has earned the right to not be at that sort of disadvantage vs. a #11. But while Dayton gets a short trip and will have plenty of fans, note that for a team lacking depth, with Dyshawn Pierre and Scoochie Smith playing the full 40 minutes on Wednesday, it will be the fifth game in eight days.
Robert Morris 81 North Florida 77 – There is not a lot that needs to be said about the Colonials, who will only be on the board one more time this season. There is not enough there to challenge Duke, yet there is enough to provide what should be an intriguing subplot – that Marcquise Reed/Rodney Pryor/Lucky Jones back-court was sensational on Wednesday, and watching them go up against a Blue Devil team that has the best group of guards in the nation will provide plenty of entertainment.
What you can also take away from this game is a little Basketball Science, and how a complete dominance in one aspect of play can often make up for the other side having edges across most of the others. North Florida shot better from the field (48.1 percent to 45.2), better from beyond the 3-point line (40.9 to 25.0), better from the FT line (69.2 to 63.6), and controlled the boards 42-31. A team does not often lose with that, but in terms of defensive pressure and ball-handling it was a complete mismatch. Robert Morris had 14 fewer turnovers (19-5), and 11 more steals (12-1), which led to getting off 10 more FG attempts, and seven more FTs. Remarkably, the Colonials did not have a single turnover in the second half.
Before you get too excited about that particular part of Wednesday’s performance as a matchup consideration vs. Duke, note that the Colonials were actually #240 in turnover rate this season, giving it up on 20.1 percent for their possessions. The old question of whether something was Good Offense or Bad Defense? The case should be submitted as bad defense this time – the Ospreys were only #251 at forcing turnovers coming in.
About Last Night, NBA…
In the thread following yesterday’s column there was some brief discussion of Hawks/Warriors, and how the absence of Kyle Korver and Klay Thompson might render that result as being somewhat meaningless. That may well be the case, except for possibly something to follow along as the Atlanta schedule closes out. While Mike Budenholzer has made it clear that keeping his players fresh for the playoffs is the top priority, the Hawks have now lost four times in double figures sine the start of February. They had only been beaten three times by doubles all season prior to that. While some of the defeats do not carry meaning from an individual game standpoint, there is something about rhythm, confidence and swagger that can matter. For a coach and a team in this position for the first time, they may not want to allow too much to slip away. They are in the midst of an awkward schedule cycle that will bring 16 consecutive court changes – it may be worth being on the lookout for a game or two in that stretch in which they decide to bring it. To not just stay fresh, but also to stay sharp.
About Last Night, NIT…
On Tuesday there was a column detailing the potential pratfalls inherent with playing on those “snubbed” teams in the NIT – while there can be the belief that they would bring a chip on their shoulder to make the NCAA committee look wrong, often these teams have a difficult time recharging their batteries. Had you backed Temple and Colorado State on Wednesday, the two teams at the top of this year’s list for that category, it would have been an 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS ride in which the two teams lost to the spread by a collective 24.5 points.
Take the following, from Colorado State’s Larry Eustachy, whose team fell 86-76 at home to South Dakota State, as a meaningful epitaph for such teams - "That's a tough way to end the season. … As crazy as this sounds, we gave what we had. There's a lot to being mentally drained. We really gave about what we had left in the tank. We were just late the whole game, and we were just a step behind."
Print that out and make it into a plaque, and you will have a reminder in the years ahead of just what those settings can turn into.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Dance to come; The Weekend in Review
Monday – The 2015 NCAA Bracket
Tuesday – Time for some NIT-pickin’ (while watching BYU and Ole Miss struggle to guard each other)…If LeBron can’t chase down a rebound, why was he out there?...When “You can’t get there from here” matters…
Wednesday – The Tourney Journey, #1 (The Meek shall inherit Kentucky)…The Oddsmakers were “Totally” wrong in the NIT…Taking advantage of Silly Seeding Suppositions…