Point Blank – September 25
The Challenges of Change
This weekend brings us a matchup of one of the most one-sided recent series histories of any major conference – over the past three seasons, one team has beaten this particular opponent by a combined 100-14 on the scoreboard. On the playing field, it has been an advantage of 437 yards over those 12 quarters. The matchup also brings us a team that has lost 17 straight conference games; easy to understand given how they have been dominated in this matchup.
But here is the catch – the team that has lost the last three by 86 points vs. this foe, and has not won a league game since 2011, is currently sitting as a 17-point favorite, with hints of 17.5 out there. They are the Kentucky Wildcats. Welcome to one of the more unique realms of handicapping.
Yes, Kentucky is improved this season; off of back-to-back campaigns of 2-10 overall and 0-8 in the SEC it would be hard for it to be otherwise. The recruiting has picked up under Mark Stoops, so the overall talent is better, even if his signees lack experience. But there are still cautions – the win over Ohio is nothing special in retrospect, and the O.T. near-miss at Florida also shows some tarnish after the Gators were out-gained by 445 yards at Alabama last Saturday.
Yes, Vanderbilt has fallen off this season, after a terrific run under James Franklin. The Commodores actually trailed on their own field in double figures in the 4th quarter vs. the likes of Temple (a game they were never in) and Massachusetts (a game they rallied to win 34-31). But while there are indeed transitional pains in Derek Mason’s first season, Vandy has nine senior starters, and six more on the two-deep, a group that has gone 25-18 the past 3+ campaigns, including the extra practice time of having been to three straight bowls.
Can programs in the same conference legitimately swing this far this fast? Can one group of seniors go from losing the last three games by an average of 28.7 points, to now being favored by -17? And while Vanderbilt did exceed the market projections in those past three head-to-heads, the Commodores were favored to win each of them. So let’s try the exercise another way, and look at a “neutral field appraisal” (NFA in the future) of how the markets viewed the matchups. To make it simple, we will call for the home field to be worth three points when these teams meet –
2011: Vanderbilt -10
2012: Vanderbilt -9.5
2013: Vanderbilt -8
2014: Kentucky -14
Look at how radical that adjustment is. Can two programs have that big of a paradigm shift in one season? To take it a step further, consider what laying -17 means for the Wildcats in an SEC game. Since the beginning of the 2004 season Kentucky has taken on a conference opponent 81 times. There has been one victory by more than 17, a 38-20 decision over Vandy in 2010. So this line is just a tick away from establishing a plateau that the Wildcats would not have reached in over a decade.
This shows us how much weight the markets place on the most recent results, to the point at which over-reactions can take place. Kentucky is 2-0 ATS; Vanderbilt had been 0-3 before getting the money vs. South Carolina on Saturday night. Bettors flock to bet the hot and fade the cold in the early stages of most seasons, but one of the prime jobs of the guys setting the lines is to keep pointspread streaks from gathering steam, literally. They may have thought they had accomplished that by opening Kentucky -14.5, but the markets quickly got involved anyway.
Of course, the most recent results are indeed the most important, and deservedly carry the most weight. There are also Vanderbilt QB issues, with Patton Robinette still not cleared following last week’s concussion, although freshman Wade Freeback showed promise vs. South Carolina. What is going on between these programs absolutely calls for a change from the past Commodore dominance. But does it call for this much change?
In the Sights…
The build-up for UCLA/Arizona State tonight has naturally focused on the status of the QBs, with Taylor Kelly a no-go for ASU, and Brett Hundley expected to be in for the Bruins. But that may be overshadowing a handicapping issue that may carry even more importance – is the Sun Devil defense ready for Prime Time?
State does take a loss at QB, although it should be noted that Mike Bercovici was actually ahead of Kelly coming out of spring practice in 2012, before losing on a close call in fall camp. He has a stronger arm than Kelly, but is not as nimble, hence not as good of a fit for the Todd Graham playbook. But it is the other side of the ball that brings a key dynamic for both your pre-game thoughts, and then the Eye Test when watching.
The Sun Devils are fielding the youngest defense of any team in a power conference. On the 23-man two deep (we add a player because they have three in the mix at the “Devil” rover LB position) there are only three seniors, and nine freshmen, including seven true freshmen. Three of the true freshmen will be starting, and at the weak-side LB spot it is a true freshmen (D. J. Calhoun) being backed up by a classmate (Christian Sam).
In the 38-24 win over Colorado to open Pac 12 play this group struggled to get off the field, with the Buffaloes getting off 91 snaps. But tonight there is an added issue – it is not just preventing UCLA from moving the chains, but to keep explosion plays from happening. The Bruins bring athletes at the skill positions that Colorado does not have. The Sun Devils have speed and talent on defense; what they lack are experience and discipline. There could be some growing pains in this matchup. -3 has been on the wish list this week, but there are 4’s at low-vig out there this morning that can bring you an “entertainment with an edge” level of investment.
Vegas…
If you are far enough along in your handicapping processes to be ready to pull the trigger tonight, Jay Kornegay and the Westgate Superbook are offering many of the games on the board at -105 on Thursday’s, from 3 PM to close. Just ask a ticket writer for the “105 sheet” and you will see the games that are available.
You can also be filling out your weekend tickets from the comforts of home, as Boyd Gaming rolled out “B Connected Sports”, their mobile wagering app, this week (http://www.bconnectedsports.com). You can register at the California, Fremont, Gold Coast, Orleans, Sam’s Town or Suncoast.