Point Blank – September 15
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #3
The NCAA Week that Was, and things you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: Charting early “Market Error”
As each season begins one of the keys to isolate early is Market Error on various teams, looking to take advantage of those that are either far better, or far worse, than expectations, before the corrections are made. And also to be prepared to buy in when those adjustments might create an over-reaction, if a team has been a victim of circumstance. The opening salvo to 2014 has provided plenty of food for thought in that regard, so let’s look at the biggest outliers of teams that have played three lined games (only counting those that are 3-0 or 0-3 ATS), and the market margin of error. “Added Games” are not included -
The Good
Louisiana Tech (3-0 ATS, +70 vs. expectation)
It has been one hell of a recent pendulum in Ruston. In 2012 the Bulldogs went 9-3 SU, the third time in as many seasons their win total had increased under Sonny Dykes, but after he left for California it was a crash in the first Skip Holtz campaign – 4-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. The Week #1 cover vs. Oklahoma meant nothing; they trailed 41-3 in the middle of the 3rd quarter before hanging a +34 at 48-16. But the market error the past two weeks has been staggering – a 48-20 domination of UL-Lafayette as +16, and a 42-21 trouncing of North Texas as +3 that was not that close – it was 42-7 late in the final stanza. Here is the issue before Tech hits the board again in two weeks – those last two games were not just a case of them being much better, but also the opponents being worse than expected. Weighing the balance in gauging those results will be the key going forward.
Mississippi (3-0, +44)
The Rebels are clicking largely through development on three fronts – the solid recruiting by Hugh Freeze has upgraded the talent level even faster than expected, with so many young players in the rotation (18 freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep); a couple of seasons in the Freeze system has the schemes firmly in place on both sides of the ball; and QB Bo Wallace is fully healthy, after playing hurt through much of 2013. The schedule soon brings one of the toughest cycles anyone has to play all season – Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn in a five week stretch, with Tennessee sandwiched in the middle, and there is a question as to whether the soft early schedule will have done enough to prepare the younger players for that. But so far you have to like what you see.
UTEP (3-0, +39.5)
The expectation when Sean Kugler took over at his alma mater was that there would be a physical style of football, centered around the running game on offense. That is exactly what we have seen so far, with 951 overland yards and 11 rushing TDs. That has been enough against a favorable cycle of opposing defensive fronts, but in truth the Miners are in a conference in which they may be able to push a lot of teams around. There is depth the depth at RB to hold up well over the course of the season, so despite shortcomings in so man areas, what they do right might produce enough wins for bowl contention. But anticipate some inconsistency – in games in which they control the line of scrimmage early there will be one-sided ATS results, and when they fall behind vs. a quicker opponent they can also be subject to blowouts.
The Bad
Fresno State (0-3, -64.5)
OK, so it was a difficult opening schedule to break in a new QB in the post-Carr era. But Tim DeRutyer has built his reputation as being a defensive coach, and he had eight returning starters to work with on that side of the ball. That defense has been dreadful, with all three opponents breaking 50 (Nebraska did get a TD on a punt return), and all three also racked up over 250 yards both running and passing. And it could have been worse – USC was sitting on 52 in the third quarter and backed off; and Utah led 45-7 late 3rd. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, a soft Mountain West brings opportunities for redemption as they step down in class.
Kent State (0-3, -48.5)
It is clear that the 11-3 of two years ago was a spin of the roulette wheel for this program. The Golden Flashes had a monster +20 advantage in turnover ratio during that regular season, winning seven games in which they trailed in first downs and total offense. Don’t the folks at Purdue that hired Darrell Hazel now wish they had paid more attention to that? They fell back to 4-8 LY despite having an NFL talent in Dri Archer, and now have not only been without Archer, but also Trayion Durham, the linchpin to their ground attack. Without Durham they only have 142 overland yards. But they do get a week off that could set the stage for his return, so they might become a value if there is too much over-reaction to the dismal opening.
Tulsa (0-3, -56)
Note first that there was a reference to the Golden Hurricane OT win over Tulane in the first NCAA recap column a couple of weeks ago – I only put regulation results go into the database. Hence, an 0-3 for Tulsa that will show 1-2 elsewhere. The key to understanding this decline is that the good work that Todd Graham did with this program, a 36-17 run over four seasons that included three resounding bowl wins (a combined 170-55), is no longer relevant. Now in the fourth season under Bill Blankenship the Graham recruits are thinning out (only nine seniors on the two-deep), and there is nothing fluky about the way the team has played. The box score vs. lowly Florida Atlantic on Saturday was shocking – despite being a slight favorite at kickoff, Tulsa was dominated to the tune of 8.0 yards per play vs. just 4.6. In seven of the last 14 games the Golden Hurricanes have lost to the spread by 18 points or more, which speaks volumes about the general decline, and the markets failure to adjust properly.
UCLA (0-3, -34)
The Bruins have under-achieved across the board. They could not get near the pointspread at Virginia, despite getting three TDs from the defense and special teams. A Memphis team that is nothing special walked out of the Rose Bowl with 35 points and 469 yards. Texas stood up to the final possession despite the inexperience issues at QB and in the OL, and that botched coin toss sequence (the Bruins scored on the opening possession of the second half, when it should have been the Longhorns taking possession). Now there is a weekend off before that major showdown at Arizona State, a time to see if Brett Hundley can get healthy, and also if the errors that have plagued them can be corrected. There may be less upside than what has been projected, and inconsistency may actually be a hallmark of a Jim Mora Jr. program.
Vanderbilt (0-3, -72)
Off of three straight seasons that ended with bowl trips, and the added practices that come with that, Vandy seemed positioned OK to deal with a coaching change, and Derek Mason brought a respectable resume. But the Commodores were never in the hunt against Temple or Ole Miss (The Rebels were ahead 41-0 in the 3rd quarter when Freeze backed off), and trailed by 11 points at home in the 4th quarter to Massachusetts. Let that sink in – an SEC school, on its own field, trailed Temple and UMass by double figures in the final stanza. The talent has not been handled well – a scheme change on defense does not fit the personnel on hand, and the rotating QB carousel has not given any of the three candidates a chance to find a rhythm. It is true that none of them have stepped up when they have had a chance, but given the lack of upside for Patton Robinette and Stephen Rivers, it might already be time to turn it over to Johnny McCrary, and start thinking about the future. How bad has the offense been? They have only scored two of the five TDs, with the special teams and defense producing the other three.
2-0 ATS and more than 25 points of error:
NEBRASKA (+53), UAB (+50.0), MISSOURI (+49), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+31.5)
0-2 ATS, and more than 25 points of error:
UL-LAFAYETTE (-57.5), SMU (-46.5), TEXAS TECH (-38), TOLEDO (-36), MICHIGAN (-35.5), NORTHWESTERN (-32.5), IOWA (-30), UTAH STATE (-30), UNLV (-26.5), NEW MEXICO (-26), WASHINGTON STATE (-25.5)
Item: Alabama has no INTs
The Alabama defense had been so great for so long, that the closing salvo to the 2013 season was a stunner, losses to Auburn and Oklahoma in which that group spent a lot of time on their heels. Most alarming was the fact that in those two games the pass defense allowed 43-60 for 541 yards, with six TDs and a lone INT. Which makes the opening weeks of 2014 worth taking a close look at – opposing QBs have thrown 101 passes so far without an INT, and there has also only been one fumble recovery in 167 snaps. Considering that the last 7.5 quarters have been vs. Florida Atlantic (the game was called with 7:53 remaining) and Southern Miss, that is a cause for concern when Florida comes to Tuscaloosa this week, and the SEC head-banging begins.
Nick Saban can be precise in many of his reflections, and this one after Saturday’s win speaks volumes - "Defensively, I thought we played well, but I also thought that we gave up too many plays that are the kinds of stops we're going to need to make in the future." That is easy to interpret – the schedule ahead brings playmakers that can finish things that the last two opponents could only start.
Making matters more difficult is that starting FS Nick Perry will not be available for the first half of the Florida clash, having been suspended by the NCAA for a targeting foul in the third quarter on Saturday. This is still a good defense, but perhaps not as good as the market reputation that they carry.
Item: Appreciating East Carolina
Yes, the schedule settings were favorable – Ruffin McNeill and his Pirates caught South Carolina in between Texas A&M and Georgia, and then Virginia Tech in between Ohio State and the ACC opener vs. Georgia Tech. But even when you factor that in, those performances on the field were striking. The scoreboard may show a net of -3 in splitting those two games outright, but how about this – they won the yards per play count by a substantial 6.9 to 5.1 over 304 snaps.
McNeill came to Greenville with a pedigree as a defense-first guy, and it was a tough transition to a program that has not always had the talent to compete on that side of the ball – in a dismal 1-4 close-out to his opening season in 2010, the Pirates allowed 49, 76, 42, 62 and 45 down the stretch. But this season marks the first time that McNeill has nothing but his own recruits on board, and that also means that the veteran players know the system well enough to help coach the younger players along.
East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the last nine lined games, and the three home games in that span were covered by 17, 18 and 21 vs. the expectations. The Pirates may not have received the best punch that South Carolina and Virginia Tech can throw, but what they showed on those fields was impressive, especially on defense – with 10 of the 11 starters being seniors or juniors, there is a McNeill stamp on this group.
Item: Bob Diaco also knows defense
It is going to take some time for Bob Diaco, former Notre Dame DC, to build an offense at Connecticut – it will take a couple of recruiting classes to fill what is a pretty empty cupboard across the skill positions. But Diaco knows defense, and a Saturday result that you could otherwise yawn and skip past, Boise State’s 38-21 win and cover as -15, deserves a closer look.
Boise averaged 30.5 first downs and 537.5 yards of total offense vs. Mississippi and Colorado State. The Broncos only managed 13 and 292 at UConn. The ground game was stuffed, and it was not one of those fluky boxes in which sacks or miscues carried a lot of weight – star RB Jay Ajayi only managed 39 yards on 18 carries (2.2), and there was not a Boise run the entire game that netted 10 yards. So where did the scoreboard come from? The Broncos got their first TD on a fumble return, their last TD on an interception returned, and one of their two offensive TD drives was only 37 yards after a Connecticut turnover.
There were similar issues when the Huskies barely got past Stony Brook 19-16 last week – the defense only allowed eight first downs and 300 yards, but a TD was scored when the UConn offense fumbled back into its own end zone. That offense lacks an upside with the current personnel, but the defense may be legit, and could be a pointspread factor down the line.
Item: Georgia Tech gets out-rushed by Wofford and Georgia Southern
Under Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech has been using that option ground game to overcome weaknesses in other aspects of the program. Given the academic standards, recruiting the kind of athletes needed to compete at the highest levels is a challenge. And through the years that ground attack has been good enough to win (six consecutive bowl appearances), and occasionally to flirt with bigger things. Which makes the opening to 2014 a bit alarming.
In building up a 3-0 vs. soft competition many will not take notice, although eyebrows had to be raised when the Yellow Jackets fell behind vs. +16ish Georgia Southern (a line that was steadily bet down all week) on Saturday, before scrambling to win it on the final drive. Here is what should be alarming -
Wofford: 271 rushing yards at 5.8 per attempt; GT 226 at 5.3
Georgia Southern: 283 rushing yards at 7.4; GT 248 at 4.7
Now the schedule picks up. If the Yellow Jackets are not going to be winning the overland battles, they lack ways to make up for it in other areas.
Item: Another Saturday, another strong Duke 4th Quarter
You could have won bar bets throughout the off-season by questioning others as to which team was the nation’s best in the 4th quarter LY. The answer: David Cutcliffe’s Duke Blue Devils. And through the first two lined games of 2014, they are at it again. The competition has been dismal, Troy State and Kansas teams that are coached by guys well past their expiration dates, but don’t sleep on the results because of that.
The job Cutcliffe has done at Durham is of Hall of Fame level, though it may never be appreciated that way. Duke had gone 2-33 the three seasons before he arrived and was arguably the worst program of any in a major conference. Before the 2013 campaign he pronounced that he finally had the depth that he has been trying to build, and through a major off-season conditioning program felt that they were ready to begin finishing games. It led to a 10-4 campaign, with that near-miss vs. Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M on New Year’s Eve almost supplying a crescendo moment.
Now they have opened by only allowing three points in the second half of those first two lined games, none in the 4th, a testament to that depth being there, but perhaps even more the level of focus and organization they play with. It is a storyline worth following, largely because the Duke wins are coming in a different manner than the market perceptions.
Item: Keenan Reynolds did not change his number
While watching the higher-profile showdowns on Saturday night, you may not have been watching the board for line movement on Navy/Texas State, nor the game itself. And if you only saw the highlights, it would have looked like a business-as-usual performance by the Midshipmen, behind the leadership and athleticism of Keenan Reynolds at QB. Hell, even if you were watching the game, it was difficult to notice that he was on the sidelines the entire time; football jersey on, but helmet and shoulder pads off.
Reynolds is a playmaker, and an ideal fit for those spread option packages, rushing for 1,346 yards and 31 TDs LY, while also throwing for 1,057 and eight more scores. He keyed an offense that put up 370 rushing yards on Ohio State in the opener, then 487 more vs. Temple, almost certainly the highs any team will reach vs. those opponents this season. So when he took the field for pre-game warmups without pads, the markets had to react – a game that opened Navy -12.5 at CRIS, and was still at -9.5 on game-day, dropped to as low as -5.5, and closed at -6.
Yet Navy scored on the first four possessions to go up 28-0 lead midway through the second quarter and coasted home, piling up 35 points and 469 yards of total offense. Sophomore Tago Smith was almost a mirror image of Reynolds, running for 85 yards and two TDs, and throwing for 117 yards and two more scores.
The key takeaway? Over time it may well be the abilities of Smith. But one of the recurring themes in terms of adjusting for injuries is to go beyond the comparison of the talent level of Starter vs. Replacement, and into how much it impacts the playbook. In this case Ken Niumatalolo did not have to change much of anything at all, and that made for a much more seamless transition than can be the case at other times.