POINT BLANK – August 19
No Longer A’s, on “D”
Because a shot at World Series rings appeared so in reach back in early July, the Oakland organization stepped out of character a bit, dealing for Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester to shore up the starting rotation. They were expensive trades, but at the time it caused a stir in the Futures Book markets. When the team with the best record in the sport also adds the kind of pitchers that seemingly can win in October (yes, we will get to Hammel’s reality in a moment), it was difficult to blame someone that wanted to go to the windows for an A’s ticket.
But fast forward to this morning, and it has been a 7-11 slide over the last 18 games, burning -$833 for investors along the way, and it now has them now looking slightly up at the Angels in the AL West standings. Some of the reasons for the decline are easy to find. The offense has struggled without Yoenis Cespedes. Hammel’s early 2014 numbers were not a genuine sign that he had turned his game around (that 7-4/2.35 at Wrigley during the cool early-season months now contrasts to a 4.60 from all other mounds, the latter being a bloop hit away from mirroring his career of 4.68). You won't see him again for a while. Scott Kazmir will soon be at his highest IP count since 2007, and is wearing down (8.3 K-per-9 at the All Star break; 4.8 since). Those are rather obvious. Today it is time to address what might actually be the biggest current issue, and one that is not getting the proper acknowledgment in the betting marketplace.
One of the keys to the A’s having such an explosive opening to the season was the defensive play. Even now the A’s rate #2 on the full-season PADE (“Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency”) charts. But the defense that was is not the defense that is, as they take the field when the Mets come to the Bay area tonight.
When Craig Gentry went on the DL in July, it was little more than a minor blip on most radar screens. But while Gentry does not pack a lot of power at the plate (only six extra base hits in 197 AB, for a .299 SLG%), he has been one of the more under-rated defensive OF in the sport the last couple of years. Having lost Cespedes as well, Jonny Gomes has been chasing down fly balls in recent games. That makes a difference.
Much like the loss of Gentry, when shortstop Jed Lowrie went on the DL a week ago, it also would not have sent off major fireworks. But here is what happens to the middle of the IF – Eric Sogard goes from being an above average glove at second base, to being below average at short. And instead of Sogard’s positive glove at second, there is the major negative of Alberto Callaspo filling in. There are not many that are worse. Lowrie’s absence has left the A’s weaker at both middle infield positions, and there are games in which they are putting a weaker glove in the field at four of the seven fielding positions, compared to their pre-All Star game lineup. They tried to mitigate that by inserting Andy Parrino at short for a couple of games in the weekend Atlanta series, but his career slash line of .167/.250/.278 does not indicate that he can hit MLB pitching.
Outside of the final score, it is not easy to see those defensive downgrades in the daily boxes. But over time it shows up. At the All Star break, the A’s had allowed a .271 batting average on balls in play (BABIP from now on). In August that has ballooned to .289, including a .293 since Lowrie went on the DL. For as good as the pitching staff has been, it is not a group that throws the ball by many hitters (#19 in K-per-9), which makes the defense an integral part of the equation. And if you are going to have the proper power ratings for the A’s right now, you need to make that defense a big part of your equations as well.
In the sights…
So why not put some of the above information in play tonight? Kazmir is laying heavy wood despite the noticeable drop in his game, and that of the team behind him. Since the All Star break his ERA is 4.26 and xFIP 4.01, compared to MLB rates of 3.65 and 3.74 through the same span. That makes him a below average pitcher over the past month. The K rate was mentioned above; the Line Drive% has climbed to 24.0 from the prior 16.3. He did manage to get six K over seven IP vs. Houston in his first post-break start, when he had nearly two full weeks off, but since then it has only been 11 K over 24.2 IP, compared to 29 hits. Yet that full-season 13-5/2.78 still has a major market impact (there is not a major book on the screen lower than -215 this morning).
For more perspective, since the break the Oakland offense has generated a .243/.312/.386 slash, which rates #20, #13 and #12 across the Majors. The defense has already been discussed. But look at tonight’s price point. The Mets are not easy to trust because of a bullpen that lacks 9th inning moxie (25 losses and 18 blown saves), but take a hard look at the +1.5 on the Run Line, which is available at no worse than -115. The A’s are just 11-18 as -1.5 since the break, and the current lineup is simply not going to break many games open (they have been held to three runs or less in 13 of 17 games since dealing Cespedes).