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Closing Line Value - Horse Racing

Thread Starter Closing Line Value - Horse Racing
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1614
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There are a lot of misconceptions, especially on this forum, with regard to the merits of closing line value. I think its important that people get away from comparing their numbers with the Pinnacle closer because obviously Pinnacle's prices have a built in house edge at the off. A few years ago Betfair introduced the BSP (Betfair SP). This is the most accurate predictor of a horses true chance of winning a race and it has been proved over a mass amount of data that a horse with a BSP o for example 2.0 will win 50% of the time.

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2010/12/efficient-market-hypothesis_3.html

I have no doubt that this will also apply to US sports on Matchbook due to the high level of liquidity on there. Therefore if the Yankees as 2.5 on the moneyline you can expect them to win the game 40% of the time. So rather than wasting time worrying about sharp books and Pinnacle just note the prices of games on matchbook at the off and if you're beating that price on a consistent basis you can confident;y expect to win in the long run. 

There were other rubbish theories thrown out on the forum about point spreads not predicting the actual winning margins of matches which is completely ridiculous. Regardless of what point spread Matchbook puts up on its  market, the money will tell you the perceived percentage chance of ta team is to cover that number and has nothing to do with the likely winning margin. Again I would believe this to be almost perfectly efficient by the game off. 

In a perfect world someone would would have the ability to get the raw data on Matchbook closers and this could be proved right or wrong but I'd be amazed if it wasn't highly efficient on predicting sporting outcomes. 

So if you want to bet better you should be cognisant of what price your moneyline or point spread ticket is at the off on Matchbook.

Opinions welcome.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB91106246.19300.00
NFL14020.00-335.00
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5459
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Top 100 Contributor

I never really considered using the exchanges to price outcomes until you started posting so I appreciate you opening my (and other people's) eyes to that.  I'd just be careful when saying "This is the way I do it, it's the best way, and if you're doing it any other way you're wasting your time".  I've got about 5 years of significant winning to back up the use of Pinny and CRIS to help price the market as well.  You said they already have a house edge, well of course when you are pricing using them you have to figure their no vig.  If Cris is -110 and you have -105 that's obviously not beating their line because a -110 no vig is +100.  

When using Pinnacle, it's important for people to realize how strong their number is is determined largely by how much they are taking.  It's no coincidence when that whole thing with Cantor went down and they REALLY stopped taking U.S. players, their CBB and CFB limits went waaaaay down.  Their NBA, and NFL stayed high because both of those are popular outside of the U.S.  I can personally attest that using Pinny to price soccer is an ATM machine.  

Without giving away the house, can you get more into horse racing and finding inefficiencies in the market there?  I am completely green when it comes to horses since I never thought it was a good idea to bet into a pool that took 20% off the top and then you didn't have any guarantee the number you bet is the number you are going to end up with.  My guess would be that different books have different pools where the numbers differ substantially and some pools are more accurate than others, but that's just a guess.  

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1614
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Top 500 Contributor

I'm not saying anyone should do anything differently, I'm just pointing out that the market at the off in horse racing on Betfair is proven to be completely efficient do therefore it's likely that Matchbook at the off will also be a hugely accurate on US sports. I'm opening people's minds not preaching.

If you can find a book that offers fixed odds on racing you can beat them but not if they're laying you pool prices.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB91106246.19300.00
NFL14020.00-335.00
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1614
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Pinnys soccer prices will just mirror Asia.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB91106246.19300.00
NFL14020.00-335.00
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5459
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

ShayMonue

I'm not saying anyone should do anything differently, I'm just pointing out that the market at the off in horse racing on Betfair is proven to be completely efficient do therefore it's likely that Matchbook at the off will also be a hugely accurate on US sports. I'm opening people's minds not preaching.

If you can find a book that offers fixed odds on racing you can beat them but not if they're laying you pool prices.

That's the thing, I've never even heard of books over here offering fixed odds except on the Triple Crown races

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Rl burnside
Joined: 08/15/2012
Posts: 145
College Recruit
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Lloyd Christmas

ShayMonue

I'm not saying anyone should do anything differently, I'm just pointing out that the market at the off in horse racing on Betfair is proven to be completely efficient do therefore it's likely that Matchbook at the off will also be a hugely accurate on US sports. I'm opening people's minds not preaching.

If you can find a book that offers fixed odds on racing you can beat them but not if they're laying you pool prices.

That's the thing, I've never even heard of books over here offering fixed odds except on the Triple Crown races

They offer them for breeders cup and some major stakes races I think.

they told me growin up to dial 911 if you ever have any trouble but I always dialed up 4 fifty 7

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