hey lloyd, i can bet 6pt NFL teasers at -110 and leave legs open. I plan to tease 7.5-8.5 home favorites down and 1.5-2.5 home dogs up. I would fire on a leg as close to kickoff as possible but i probably won't be able to help myself from betting earlier at times i think the number is going to move.
I'm trying to figure out the best plan of attack, risk % wise. using a particular database that goes back about 30 years, each leg i'm betting has won 74.11% of the time. Assuming that win rate, here are my options in terms of number of teams in the teaser and the bankroll % Kelly recommends to risk (numbers are rounded)
Teams Odds WP --- EV ---- Kelly
2 -110 0.55 --- 0.53 --- 0.053
3 165 0.41 --- 0.79 --- 0.048
4 270 0.30 --- 1.16 --- 0.043
5 450 0.22 --- 2.30 --- 0.051
clearly, ev goes up with the more teams. Kelly says i should risk the same amount at +450 on a 5-teamer as i do with a 2-teamer
About 12% of all games have had a team fit this situation historically.
So considering I'm allowed to leave teams open, should i create an open teaser with as many teams as possible? if not, i'm not sure how i would determine # of teams i'm teasing. it'd seem arbitrary.
appreciate any help