sleepyj said:
Lets say on tuesday i get over 54 CFB -110...come sat total is now 57.5 -110....is there value for a middle..and what is the worth of a 3 point middle or 6 half points.
Not in this example. Here is an old explanation from LC.
The thing people do wrong when they try to middle is bet their normal amount on each side. You need to be be risking your actual bet amount.
For example, if you're a $100 bettor, don't bet 100 on each side for a risk of 10 to win 200. Bet 1000 on each side for a risk of 100 to win 2000.
Let me explain the difference in equity.
If a line is two points off and you bet it for $110 to win 100. You have paid 110 for a ticket that has a true value of -132.
If it's -132, 56.9% of the time you will win 100, 43.1% you will lose 110 for a total of +949. Your equity in this wager is about 8.6%.
But if you bet $1,000 on each side, you are risking 100 to win 2000. 8% of the time you hit the middle for +16000, 92 times you lose 100 for -9200. A total profit of $6800. You have about 68% equity in each bet.
I probably sound like a hypocrite because I have said many times that beating the closing line is worth more than middling it. This is true when you are betting your normal amount on each side. But if you bet enough that your risk amount, not the amount on each side, is the same as your normal bet amount, middling is waaaaaaay bette