Mike Kaiser said:
I strongly disagree that a handicapping service provider should feel any more uncomfortable about being transparent than a mutual fund manager.
The only difference is the financial industry is regulated, the handicapping industry isn't.
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Despite the fact the financial industry is regulated, one can easily argue that betting on sports is more "honest" than investing on Wall Street. Time and time again Wall Street companies/folk get slapped on the wrist for screwing over their clientele or the public (e.g. - Goldman Sachs, Barclays, UBS, Bank of America, Citibank, etc. etc. etc.) thanks to the financial regulators who are basically in bed with their clients (e.g. - revolving door theory, esp. with the SEC and Wall Street).
What is not helping is that the top cop who is supposed go after these companies for financial fraud will not bite the hand that feeds him (US Attorney Eric Holder). He has made zero arrests of any corporate bigwigs of the major Wall Street banks despite the mounds of evidence that financial fraud has existed and still continue to exist.
So, to argue that the financial registry is regulated is a big joke and a flawed concept at best. Following the SEC rules only apply for the average person, but for the financial elite they can break any law they want as long as they pay for it (or bribe their Congressman).
Nevertheless, in sports, barring an extremely rare case where someone actually point shaves, one can easily argue that sports betting will always be more transparent than investing in Wall Street's products (mutual funds, bonds, individual stocks, etc.) for the following reasons:
* At least in sports betting you can see all the stats and see *exactly* what is going on when the action occurs, whereas in the stock market all the action is happening outside of the public's view (e.g. - at night with dark pools, HFT action, insider trading tips, etc.)
* Mutual fund managers/hedge fund managers/etc. get paid no matter how poorly their product does in the short to medium term. If handicappers screw up too much in the short term, they lose their customers very quickly.
* Wall Street is rife with conflicts of interest, whereas in sports betting, there is generally no conflict of interest: you're either on the right side of the bet and you make money, or you're on the wrong side of the bet and you lose money. With Wall Street - it doesn't matter to them what financial product they sell the average Joe. As long as the WS sellers get paid by someone (be it the buyer or via kickback by another financial firm), they could care less what happens to the person who buys their wares because they're already looking for the next sale.
Yes, there are people out there who may openly tout the wrong pick for their own personal reasons - but the free market will dictate how long their credibility will last... and handicappers that tout consistent losers will either be ignored - or faded.
* Vegas doesn't have a government entity that artificially inflates statistics or has a bias toward a certain team/entity, whereas the federal government has a HUGE incentive/interest in making sure the stock market stays upward. The stock market at their lofty levels right now may seem nice, but when a government entity is basically making sure the stock market artificially high (through buying up literally trillions in bonds and giving out interest free money to big banks to buy up stocks/bonds/etc.), that means there is no price discovery (read: risk factor). This in turn makes really risky assets look safe... temporarily.. until the money spigot dries up (e.g. - think the 2008 housing crash). So, on that note, can I sign up anyone for some AAA-rated bonds from Greece, Spain, or Italy? :D
Meanwhile, in sports betting, if a team really stinks, the odds will reflect it. Anyone want to bet on Jacksonville winning the SB at 1:1 odds? How about 5:1 odds? 10:1? Even 20:1? You sure? Anyone? ANYONE?!!!
**tumbleweeds roll in the background**
However, if a team is good, the odds will reflect it it. However, in some instances, you will find a good team to be severely undervalued **koff koff** Arizona Cardinals in 2013, and 2014 as well *koff koff** and as a result you'll make more money by betting on the undervalued team. In the stock market, there is no undervalued state because high frequency traders have already robbed the market of any undervalue or overvalue within literally seconds.
There are more reasons why the sports betting market will always be more transparent than the financial industry, but I don't feel like teaching an online course here.
With this all said, sports betting, in it's current state, will always be more transparent than the financial markets. I find it a HUGE plus that RJ is making handicappers @ Pregame actually disclose their name. It makes Pregame look that much better than everyone else. You handicappers may hate it at first, but I think those against RJ's policy undervalue the price tag of having a really good reputation. (Besides, if someone really wanted to find a handicapper for whatever screwed up reason, the fact is you probably can be found anyways if someone really tried hard enough.)