This should be a pretty good event. First fight starts 3pm EST Wednesday on UFC Fight Pass. There's 4 bouts on the Fight Pass & the other 9 can be seen on Fox Sports 1 from 5-10pm EST. This is an interesting card with quite a few fights that could go either way. I apologize but work has been too crazy for me to start that running thread. Thankfully, it will slow down after Easter. Anyways, here's my write-up for the event & I will post my plays sometime later tonight after I eat dinner. BOL to all!
Prelims
135lbs - Mitch Gagnon (10-2-0) vs Tim Gorman (9-2-0)
Gagnon is a super fast starter & a tremendous grappler. All 10 of his wins have come by submission with 9 of them coming inside the opening round. Gagnon doesn't really have the best cardio but that hasn't mattered much since he's finished most of his opponents so quickly. Gagnon has pretty bad striking defense & if Gorman can use his wrestling to keep this fight standing long enough to land the big shot then he should be able to put him away. Gorman was on TUF 18 before he had to drop out because of an injured hamstring & it would've been interesting if he stayed on the show because he does have big power. Gorman must drag this fight out into the 2nd or 3rd & then look to either win the rounds or knock Gagnon out. I think this fight will either be a quick submission victory for Gagnon or a knockout by Gorman in the 2nd or 3rd round. I will go with Gorman to drag this fight out & avoid the submission game of Gagnon in order to pull the upset. Gorman is better than he's been given credit for. My prediction is Tim Gorman to defeat Mitch Gagnon by KO/TKO.
170lbs - Richard Walsh (7-1-0) vs Chris Indich (6-1-0)
I am not very confident in any of the 4 fights featuring the TUF Nations competitors because I believe that all 4 could go either way. Walsh is definitely the stronger fighter that leads with a great jab but Indich has a great chin & tends to throw much better combinations. I see this really being a back & forth battle on the feet with both men having their moments but in the end, I expect Indich to use his boxing & footwork to outpoint Walsh in what should be a very fast paced fight. I give Inidch the slight standup edge & he will outwork Walsh en route to a razor thin decision victory. Maybe even a split decision. My prediction is Chris Indich to defeat Richard Walsh by decision.
185lbs - Nordine Taleb (8-2-0 1NC) vs Vik Grujic (6-2-0)
This is another very close matchup that I have gone back & forth on. Both men are coming out of good camps with Nordine training at Tri-Star & Vik out of Alliance. I feel that Vik does have a punchers chance but he's just too old & inexperienced to now enter into the UFC. Truthfully, the only reason Vik, Walsh, & Indich are even on this card is because the UFC wanted to grow their brand & show their Australian fighters from the TUF show since they got dominated & not a single one could make it to their weight classes finals. Nordine will more than likely pick apart Vik in a fight that should stay on the feet. I am hesitant about Nordine also being a contestant on TUF 19 that premieres immediately after this event & Nordine didn't look all that well on the show. But, He's fought the better competition & should be the more prepared fighter. My prediction is Nordine Taleb to defeat Vik Grujic by decision.
155lbs - Mark Bocek (11-5-0) vs Mike De La Torre (12-3-0)
Torre is making his UFC debut on short notice & he is coming out of the MMA Lab but outside of catching Bocek with a bomb, I don't give him much of a chance. Bocek is very durable & a great grappler. I look for Bocek to get this fight to the mat & work his submission game. Torre has looked good thus far in his career but all 3 of his losses have come by submission & I expect this to be number 4. My prediction is Mark Bocek to defeat Mike De La Torre by submission.
135lbs - George Roop (14-11-1) vs Dustin Kimura (12-1-0)
This is a matchup between 2 average at best fighters. Roop should be better on the feet & with his height and reach advantage. Roop needs to maintain the distance in order to keep this fight standing & outpoint Kimura. Kimura is great on the ground but is a terrible wrestler that isn't very good at takedowns. Fortunately for Kimura, Roop isn't the best at keeping the distance & he tends to hold his chin too high. Roop should control the fight until Kimura catches him with a big shot that exposes his glass chin & Kimura will be able to sink in a submission to end this fight. Both men have a ton of flaws but Roop is just too chinny for me to have any confidence in him. My prediction is Dustin Kimura George Roop by submission.
205lbs - Ryan Jimmo (18-3-0) vs Sean O’Connell (15-4-0)
This is a short notice fight for O'Connell & I really don't see him having any chance of pulling the upset. Jimmo is a physical specimen with good power & is absolutely dangerous when fighting in the clinch. Jimmo has become more of a point fight of late but I expect him to come out aggressive & make quick work of the debuting O'Connell. Jimmo is just better in every area. My prediction is Ryan Jimmo to defeat Sean O’Connell by KO/TKO.
135lbs - Sarah Kaufman (16-2-0 1NC) vs Leslie Smith (6-4-1)
This is a rematch of a very good fight from a year ago where Sarah Kaufman beat Leslie Smith in a very close split decision. I personally thought Smith beat Kaufman but obviously 2 judges saw it differently than I did. At times Kaufman did have issues with her height & reach disadvantage against Smith but she did clearly push the pace. I look for this fight to be very similar with Kaufman pushing the pace & landing more offense but Smith still having her opportunites & hit Kaufman with some good strikes. In the end, unless Smith can knock Kaufman out then I don't see her being able to land enough to outpoint Kaufman. This & the Stout vs Noons fights are my early candidates for Fight Of The Night so this should be fun but I'm going to have to go with Kaufman here. My prediction is Sarah Kaufman to defeat Leslie Smith by decision.
170lbs - Sam Stout (21-9-1) vs KJ Noons (11-6)
This fight was originally suppose to take place at 155 but apparently there was some issue with weight being met so they both agreed to fight at 170. This should be a barn burner & could really go either way. I do think that Stout is just a little bit better in every area but he should try to mix in a few takedowns or at least clinch up and push Noons against the cage for a few minutes in the fight. Stout must close the distance & not give Noons the space to fire away at will. As long as Stout can keep this fight on the inside then it should stll be a very close back & forth battle but he will come out with a very close victory. I look for this fight to go to the judges with the final round determining the winner & I am going to bank on the accuracy of Stout to pull out the decision. My prediction is Sam Stout to defeat KJ Noons by decision.
Main Card
145lbs - #6 Dustin Poirier (15-3-0) vs Akira Corassani (14-4-1)
This is a huge step up in competition for Corassani & I'm not sure if he's ready for it. Corassani is 3-0 in the UFC but he hasn't really been all that impressive. In fact, he won his last fight by disqualification due to a knee of a downed opponent but that probably should've been called an accidental blow resulting in a NC. Anyways, this is a terrible matchup for Corassani. I expect for Poirier to come out like a bat out of hell & hurt Corassani in the first round before finishing him off with some big ground & pound. Corassani's Cinderella story is about to strike midnight. My prediction is Dustin Poirier to defeat Akira Corassani by KO/TKO.
170lbs - Chad Laprise (7-0-0) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier (4-0-0)
This is the welterweight final for the TUF Nations Tournament. Both men were very impressive on the show & from the beginning these were the 2 best welterweights. Laprise has huge power & really likes to keep the fight standing in order to pick apart his opponent. Mercier on the other hand is a grinding grappler that tends to wear down his opponent. I think both men have a future in the UFC but there really is no telling how high the ceiling for Mercier will be. They already call him the next GSP & I don't know if he can live up to that hype but this kid is good. I really don't think this fight will be standing for too long because Mercier & any smart fighter wants no part of Laprise's big power on the feet. I think Laprise might have a few good moments but for the most part Mercier will continuously take him down & control him on the ground. I don't expect it to be pretty or fun but I do expect Mercier to pull out the victory. My prediction is Olivier Aubin-Mercier to defeat Chad Laprise by decision.
185lbs - Sheldon Westcott (8-1-0) vs Elias Theodorou (8-0-0)
This is the TUF Nations Final in the middleweight division & this fight is even harder to call than the welterweight finale. I've honestly gone back & forth on this fight many times but it comes down to the size of Theodorou. Westcott is a natural welterweight but like many that enter into the TUF house, he fought at middleweight so it would be easier to make weight since you're fighting multiple times in such a short period. Westcott is a beast that is always looking to finish the fight & Elias is more of a grinder. I think the pure size & grinding style of Elias will prove to be too much as he wears down Westcott & either submits him in the 3rd or wins a decision victory. It should go back & forth in the beginning but sooner or later Elias will take over. My prediction is Elias Theodorou to defeat Sheldon Westcott by decision.
170lbs - Patrick Cote (20-8-0) vs Kyle Noke (20-6-1)
This is where the Aussie's finally get their revenge. All season long the Canadians dominated the Australian team but now their coaches finally meet inside the octagon & I think it's going to be all Noke. Cote was a very good fighter in his prime but that time has come & gone. Cote is starting to get a little chinny & I expect Noke to expose it with a couple of big combinations. I feel that at this point in their careers, Noke holds the edge in every area. I expect him to take Cote down multiple times & also get the best of him while standing. I still think that Cote is resilient enough to not get finished but Noke will win an easy decsion victory. My pick is Kyle Noke to defeat Patrick Cote by decision.
185lbs - #5 Michael Bisbing (25-5-0) vs #8 Tim Kennedy (17-4-0)
I am very excited for this fight. Kennedy basically talked himself into this fight because for some reason he never gets the respect that he deserves. Kennedy has fought a lot of top competition & even holds a victory over Robbie Lawler. Bisbing always pushes a high pace & is very good at brawling but I do have to question the cage rust from being out for a year & this being his first fight back after suffering a detached retina. Plus, Kennedy has fought 5 round fights before but Bisbing has not. I honestly think this will be a back & forth battle with Bisbing winning 2 of the first 3 rounds but Kennedy will find a way to get this fight to the mat & wear down Bisbing in order to win the final 2 rounds. It should be fairly close but I am going with the highly underrated Kennedy to pull the upset. My pick is Tim Kennedy to defeat Michael Bisbing by decision.