For the sake of convenience and time, I'll re-post the entire document. Anyone who already perused Part I and is further interested can head straight to Part II, although re-reading the entire thing certainly can't hurt? These documents are brought to you by Rogers' Internet (failure)....LOL
Bruno's Best Betting Basics 101 (Part I) ~ October 30/2013
Sitting around with no internet signal, I got to thinking about the current state of the Pregame Forums. Now it IS, to me, hands-down the greatest site ever for the exchange of intelligent and thought-provoking sporting information. Have said that, we certainly have room for a great deal of improvement.
While I currently no longer work and have "only" the birds to tend to, the enhancement of the Community is and has been a key goal of mine, as I spend so much time around here. I am 100% certain that with our collaborative efforts and the willingness and desire of others to learn, that almost everyone can become a long-term winner. Yes, they are very high aspirations but I have total faith that it can not only be suggested, but be accomplished. Let's just hope that we don't put the site out of business by doing so.....LOL
I have no doubts that many are thinking, "Yeah, right", however I do tend to tell it like it is and my friend Sleepy's thread may actually prove my point. Obviously, 70% is not a sustainable number, but how many in here actually believe it was a total fluke? It wasn't. How many used it to profit this past weekend? I did. Anyone who was around during the Bowl season last year may also remember what head-down jam sessions can accomplish? As I currently am without an internet signal and cannot check, I need to see how many of the games that had multiple members on them succeeded and how many did not? Once many people back a side or a total we all understand that it then becomes a "consensus" play. Those games are often doomed to failure. We need to track that and eliminate them from our wagering roster, if need be.
I will try and endeavor to prove that a comfortable lifestyle can be achieved through Sports Wagering alone. Although we have been over it a million times, it does bear repeating. MONEY MANAGEMENT is of primary importance whether you are a high or low-volume player. There are many ways to learn that DISCIPLINE which, IMO, is the secondary key to becoming a successful gambler. If this has been a problem for you in the past, I will suggest a couple of methods of learning some. Despite the size of your 'roll, bet only ONE game and DO NOT hit submit again until the game is final and the money is in the bank. Yes, it is often very tough to do when that "great" game jumps out at you. Once you become comfortable with this concept you can begin to add an "in-game" play whether it is a quarter, a half OR a live play. DO keep your focus on that single game.
Once you have trained yourself NOT to put too many eggs in one basket, you can begin to add plays one by one. You will find your limit and then stay within it. ***NOTE*** I recommend NOT playing "live" action unless you are/have been physically watching the game. You will learn to spot random momentum swings whether is a goalie change on the ice, a turnover on the gridiron or perhaps an injury. These can often be straight cash-money! Be quick, as you may catch a great line after a turnover and before the "live" line is adjusted. If playing a quarter (3rd) or period be sure to know who has the first possession and/or if there is a power-play (advantage) in progress, etc. You may even learn to feel it before it actually occurs. Sometimes, I have to roll those dice.
In my 35 years of NHL gambling (and years of playing high-level), I will say almost unequivically that a 2-0 lead is the most difficult edge to protect in hockey. Obviously the next goal will often make or break our play. See the Flyers last night. Now that is NOT to say that we should immediately jump on a team that is down 0-2. Very bad idea! The key to remember is that should the losing team score to make it 2-1, the other team often falls back into a defensive shell to try and protect that 1 goal lead and it very often back-fires, as they then cannot regain their offensive mojo. There are teams that this is also a very bad idea (bet)...mainly high-scoring ones.
DO NOT CHASE! If you are having a bad day, go read a book or something (preferably sports or handicapping). Always remember that KNOWLEDGE IS POWER and never moreso than in this game of ours. More money is lost making poor choices when you are on tilt than at any other time. This goes back to the discipline that you may have learned by now? Start as a low-volume player and work your way up. I am high-volume not because I am an action junkie, but because I am an intellectual one. I need the mental stimulation that 'capping and following a dozen games, often at once, provides me with. You may need more or less, but if you don't need it, put a lid on the number of plays you make. Just keep in mind that the higher the slate you play, the lower your success rate needs to be to make the same (or more) income. BUT, a very bad day can really, really hurt.
I cannot state aggressively enough not to buy into ANY play >10 units ( I personally think that much is foolish) from anyone. Anybody, and I do mean anybody, that recommends such a fool-hardy wager is a SU idiot or flat-out liar with NO exceptions!
And no, I am NOT just another pretty face.......LOL
I'll add another chapter to this as time provides. Stay disciplined and begin to HIT THE 'BOOKS, my friends!
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Bruno's Best Betting Basics 101 (Part II) ~ November 14/2013
Goddamn it! Sitting around again without a connection since last night. Getting very pissed off at the entire Rogers' Internet service and would not recommend it to anyone.
I think today we will look at value and how to best utilize it, IMO. I will use the Ball State/NIU tilt last night as a prime example. I was totally sold on the Cardinals catching 7+ and also played them on the ML. If I truly believe that a dog of +175 +/- has a solid chance at an outright upset, I will generally play the ML at exactly 1/2 the value of my ATS play (BTW ~ I lost fairly large, but not nearly as badly as it could have been. Explanation coming). LIMIT THE DAMAGE.....and always ensure that a proper ATS 'cap profits handsomely whether the dog wins SU or not. Be sure to follow your in-game action closely. Again using last night, I KNEW that my plays were circling the drain immediately after the Cards opted to kick the FG for the tie instead of choosing to go on 4th and very short (Worst case? Giving Lynch a 100 yard field to work and the opportunity for a short field with a stop)....the opposite decision that the Huskies had successly made on the previous drive. A gutless coach's game call on the road, under the circumstances in the 3rd quarter, IMO. At 27-27, I was certain that the wagers were lost (Sorry, without a connection I couldn't even post a "heads-up"). I think I saw the Cardinals' defense exhale at that precise moment after they, I believe, had been playing just well enough to possibly win. That coaching decision basically told them that he had very little faith in them and believed that the Huskies' defense was better. Ultimately, they were. The Cards' D had just taken Lynch to a 4th and Goal on the 1, or whatever it was, on their previous efforts. A true MOMENTUM SWING. They are easy to spot, IF YOU ARE WATCHING closely. At that point, I tried to lay off action in backing NIU "live", but the internet was down. I had to hustle down to a local to make a play and lost valuable time (and value) in doing so. I guess that the moral here is that if you have large action on a particular game(s), be sure to watch it/them. While you cannot change the outcome of the match-up, you certainly CAN minimize the potential damage an L may cause.....or in rarer cases, increase your stash with a W.
In essence, NEVER BE AFRAID TO LAY OFF A PLAY, no matter how strongly you feel/felt about it. SAVING "LOST" MONEY IS ACTUALLY WINNING! On another game, we actually made a small profit playing the Leafs OT prop (+280) even though they lost 2-1 in the shootout at Leafs (+145). A stupid 5 minute major penalty (up 1-0 in the third) sunk the Leafs, however the OT would not have cashed in that case, so 6 of one or a half dozen of the other. Kessel also had, perhaps, the worst 10 minutes of his life if you saw his SO attempt after a giveaway in the third and then directing the tying goal into his own net....LOL. Still Top 5 talent in the NHL to me. In a nutshell, if you believe that a big dog can win SU on the ice, it is often wiser to split the bet. Instead of $300 Leafs (+145), as an example, you may choose to submit $200 Leafs (+145) and $100 To OT (+280). In this instance and provided it's been 'capped correctly, you will profit either $80, $190 or $570 or lose the entire original $300 that you were going to play anyway. I look at that as simple RISK MANAGEMENT.
SPREAD OUT YOUR RISK (I am assuming that we have ALL learned some discipline at this point?) by laying less action on more games. Again, this is only my opinion and we can all argue about it until the cows come home, but the fact of the matter is that it is easier to go 6-4 (60%) than it is to go 2-1 (67%) over the long run......or short-run, if you ask me. Simple math dictates that it cannot be argued (Although I am sure that some will try). Using a flat $1K per day (-110) going 6-4 you profit only $160 while 2-1 would net you $300 +/-, however 1 more loss (1-2) will lose you about $400 while mine would lose $50 (5-5). My method can take that hit....can yours'? Just to reiterate, this is MY method and it can quite obviously be tailored exactly to suit YOUR wagering comfort level.
Still no wi-fi, so perhaps another paragraph......
As lava-hot as you "may" have been, don't ever forget that the NEXT SLIDE IS ALWAYS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.....and bet accordingly. What I am alluding to is that regardless of how much your account(s) has/have grown, never believe that you are Spiderman (my fave) and don't increase your bet-size based upon it. I do mean increase it according to your BANKROLL MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS, but don't think that just because you've been on a great "heater", that as a $300 bettor, you are now a $1K whale. Once again, KNOW YOUR LIMIT AND PLAY (STAY) WITHIN IT!
Remember kids, this is a game that can be very prosperous, but always also remember that it is the men/boys on the field (and unfortunately on the side-lines or in stripes at times) that dictate the outcome. BAD BEATS ARE A BIG PART OF THIS GAME. The sooner you learn to bitch quickly, not dwell upon it and move on....the BETTER BETTOR you WILL become. That is my one and ONLY guarantee, folks. Operating on "tilt" is extremely hazardous (and very rarely profitable), which I am sure that many of you can attest to?
Over 12 hours down, this is becoming totally unacceptable. Time to start looking for a new Service Provider, methinks? If this was a Saturday/Sunday, shit would would be hitting the fan right about now! Fk'n PC is showing connected with an excellent feed......13.5 hours at this point. I will be deducting (pro-rata) from my next cable bill. Look after the pennies and the dollars WILL look after themselves providing that you REMAIN WITHIN YOUR BOUNDARIES. And no, that IS NOT a cliche.....what really pisses me off is that it is severely cutting into my handicapping time for tonight's slate. May have to eventually head to Tim Horton's with the laptop for their Wi-Fi? I usually commence the night before, but.......now noon and I am starting to get vicious! That is understating just how far behind the 8-ball this is putting me....not just for tonight, but for the entire fucking weekend. I just spent the last hour peeling pomegranates for the birds to take my mind off of just how livid this is making me.....
I am so fk'n pissed-off right now I can hardly think straight, so we'll cut this off and, perhaps, continue in another week or two. Hope you enjoy and most importantly....LEARN!!!!
Fade, Follow or Flip the Bird it's your choice and ALL on you.....the one who inevitably hits the "submit" button.
Hammer Your 'Books, Pregamers!