Point Blank – April 3, 2017
Gonzaga/NC – The Game Inside the Game…Play Ball gets shouted across the land (but Mudville may have had more joy after Casey’s strikeout than Padre fans open the season with)…Is it time to get Bullish on Chicago (on things I thought I would never write again this season)…
It is an unfortunate reality of sport that either Kennedy Meeks or Przemek Karnowski will have to lose the final college basketball game they will ever play tonight, but that is how these things are drawn up. And it is an unfortunate reality of sport if you are a San Diego Padres fan that the season begins with a rather ominous matchup, the pending doom ahead made visible so early. So many details in play on a dramatic day on the sports calendar, one season coming to a close while another is just beginning…
With topics across multiple fronts today, and in fact throughout the week as both baseball and basketball both earn our attention, the jukebox will be plugged in throughout, an easy theme being Rock and Roll Hall of Fame week, with induction ceremonies set for Friday night. It was Yes, and in particular the guitar work of Steve Howe, that took the lead last Thursday and Friday, now the focus shifts to where a big part of tonight’s NCAA championship will get decided – with Karnowski, Meeks and others set to battle it out on the boards, let’s go to Class of 2017 inductee Pearl Jam, because cutting down the nets in Glendale really will be an “Inside Job” -
I will not lose my faith
It's an inside job today
Now time to use “The Game Inside the Game” model one last time for the NCAA season, and focus in on what I believe is the single most important matchup in the game.
GONZAGA/NORTH CAROLINA – And shall the Meek(s) really inherit the boards…
The work by the Tar Heels on the offensive glass this season got detailed here on several occasions so there need not be a prolonged into – led by Meeks, and with Isaiah Hicks, Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley also having NBA bodies up front, they managed to grab 41.7 percent of the available offensive misses. That may sound impressive enough already to you, but how about the fact that it should be even more impressive than that?
When I use Offensive or Defensive Efficiency, and Tempo, those numbers don’t need a lot of detail because they are adjusted for the difficulty of opposition (using Ken Pomeroy’s fine work). OR% is not schedule adjusted, which brings up a question as to where this Carolina team would rate among the best teams ever at hitting the offensive glass – consider that #1 rating, and then the fact that they faced the #8 schedule. For some perspective, Wagner was the only other team to snare more than 40.0 percent of available offensive rebounds, but that was against the #334 slate. Might the Tar Heels have won back half of their missed shots vs. the Wagner schedule?
This all gets very real tonight, because that particular strength may be the most important reason why the Tar Heels are in this game. And that strength also may be negated by this particular opponent perhaps as much as any other.
This is not a typical Roy Williams team. The announcers will talk about them wanting to push the pace, because that has been a story line for so long, but in terms of playing fast, this is a different group. Let’s look at both overall pace, and seconds per shot on offense, over the past eight campaigns:
Pace “O” SPS
2017 #42 #25
2016 #94 #19
2015 #18 #11
2014 #19 #10
2013 #11 #14
2012 #10 #3
2011 #14 #9
2010 #23 #6
Now here’s the thing – the reality is that they are even slower than this, in both counts. But many of those offensive rebounds led to immediate put-backs, and because such a high percentage of their possessions start that way, you can easily grasp how it impacts the pace and SPS trackings.
So now we go to the heart of the battle, not just for how it impacts the handicap, but also the lament that either Meeks or Karnowski has to lose. In the One-and-Done era, we have something to celebrate this evening, that on occasion it will not be some super-talented freshmen that is off to the NBA cutting down one of the stands of the nets.
There can be the appearance that a lot of the success of Meeks comes from the fact that he is a bull inside, and at 6-10/260 there is a degree of truth, but there is also a lot of basketball savvy. This will be game #144 and start #118 in his career, including 17 appearances in the NCAA tourney. He already has 403 career offensive rebounds. In just about every game he has played, Meeks has been the biggest and strongest guy around the basket, but he also learned how to use that strength well.
Tonight the challenge is different. They list Karnowski at 7-1/300, and not only does that mean a physical mountain to work around, but in terms of basketball savvy it has been a long five-year cycle of learning under Mark Few (he got a medical red-shirt after playing in only five games before a back injury shelved his 2016 campaign). That came after 72 games across the Polish Basketball League from 2010-12, a trip to the title game in the U17 World Championships with the Polish junior national team in 2010, and another appearance with the Polish team at EuroBasket 2013.
It isn’t just Karnowski’s size creating an issue for that North Carolina strength, but his basketball savvy. He is already 23 years old, and has 137 NCAA wins under his belt, a record that I seriously doubt will ever be broken. And it also isn’t just Karnowski up front – while he has the size to play for the Tar Heels, in freshman Zach Collins there is a player of the UNC talent level, one of Few’s highest-rated recruits ever. Collins is 7-0/230, and showed that the moment was not too big for him in the semi-finals vs. South Carolina, when he had 14 points, 10 rebounds and six blocked shots. Add in 6-9/225 veteran starter Jonathan Williams, and the ability to get something from lithe but talented 7-0/200 Killian Tillie off the bench, and you have a team that is going to hold their own in this matchup, something that only a handful of North Carolina opponents could do inside.
That becomes what I believe is the crucial starting point in setting tonight’s handicap. In part because of that size up front, the Bulldogs were the #1 team in the nation in Defensive Efficiency, which you cannot just blame on the WCC offering soft competition – that stat is schedule adjusted. They are also #1 in Effective FG%, which needs to be taken with at least a grain of salt because of the schedule, but let’s set a perspective there, because of how dominant they were in the category –
Eff FG% Sked
Gonzaga 41.2 #93
UCF 42.7 #80
The gap between #1 and #2 was wide, and the difference in schedules was moderate. How about if we compare the Bulldogs to the best of the power conference schools -
Eff FG% Sked
Gonzaga 41.2 (#1) #93
Minnesota 45.1 (#10) #49
California 45.3 (#13) #75
Again, one can make the claim that the Gonzaga numbers here are also very real, the gap between the Bulldogs and the others so wide that even with schedule-adjusting they would easily come out #1 in this category as well.
Now let’s set this into the foundation of tonight’s flow – the Gonzaga defense causes a lot of missed shots. North Carolina is not a great shooting team, the easy put-backs from the offensive boards inflating the overall percentages (consider Saturday’s win over Oregon, when Meeks was 11-13, almost none of them more than a few feet from the basket, while all other shot attempts were 14-55). There will be Tar Heel misses, and then it is game-on inside in what will be a fierce battle to claim the ball off the rim.
Can we take something from this matchup notion to the betting windows? Unfortunately the path is not quite there – my #’s show Gonzaga at +3, or North Carolina at +2, which we will not see, and Under 156. Perhaps the latter may get out there, with plenty of 154.5 showing in the early markets.
But if I don’t end up with a financial interest I won’t care – because of the career arcs of Meeks/Karnowski this will be an absolute pleasure. Here is my favorite Karnowski quote of all, from back before the tournament started - “The thing I’m proudest of is that I was able to keep my grade-point average above 3.0 and get my degree on time while playing on one of the top college basketball teams in the country.”
So if the game is close late and I have no money on the line, will I root from someone with my fellow Polish background? You can be pretty damn sure of that. But I won’t be rooting for the Padres in the daytime as a prelude…
Item: 162 games may feel like 500 for San Diego fans
I am not sure of the last time I came across a Major League team entering a season with less oomph than the Padres. Not only are they terrible, but also rather dull, which makes for a long summer for the fans. But it is important to put a couple of notions in place. First something that defines the state of affairs quite well, from Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune -
Now something that in particular Las Vegas locals can focus on. Deep in the weekend thread I noted that the Stratosphere was sitting on Kershaw -450 over Chacin for today, by far the highest price on the planet. Note part of their purpose in doing that, and why you can take advantage on those occasions in which a big underdog brings value – because of their audience, they write a lot of parlay action. They already know that a high percentage of all MLB parlays today will have the Dodgers at the top of the wheel, and a lot of smaller bettors just coming in to bet a game or two will turn any of their ideas into a two-teamer, attached to Kershaw.
The Strat can’t knock the Dodgers down, of course, and there is no price at which the recreational parlay bettor will back off, but in elevating the price they do lower the rate of parlay return. That can be significant over the course of the summer. Hence if you are a local you can make the occasional stop there part of your shopping regimen, when looking to scrape the best price on a substantial underdog.
Item: The Bulls have become interesting (as have others at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff chase)
I sure as hell did not expect Chicago to be a talking point again this season once Dwyane Wade went down, and in particular not with Rajon Rondo taking on a bigger role. But in putting together a 5-1 run the Bulls are solidly back into the mix, and it was a monster weekend from Jimmy Butler setting the tone, with 72 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds.
I am going to bring this up from two directions, not just because of what is happening for Chicago, but also how the current state of affairs at the top of the East may be impacting the energy levels in the race at the bottom.
The Bulls are allowed to be optimistic because of two fronts – first a favorable remaining schedule, and then the fact that they are 6-2 SU against the Cavaliers and Celtics, which means a lack of intimidation for either possible first-round matchup. Here is the five-game closing stretch –
A - NEW YORK
A - PHILADELPHIA
A - BROOKLYN
H - ORLANDO
H - BROOKLYN
Yes, there are three straight road games ahead, but every one of those teams is at least 19 games below .500. It lays out rather well.
Now let’s consider the second element, because it hasn’t just given the Bulls a jolt but may also be a reason why a team like Charlotte (7-2 over the last nine) has rebounded from the dead to show energy. In many season’s there isn’t exactly a rush for the #8 playoff seed (and in this case the #7 as well, because so many teams are bunched) because it likely means a quick first-round dismissal. Sometimes it brings the prospect of an embarrassment, and at the end of the long schedule grind some teams would genuinely rather begin their vacations than get swept by a superior opponent. But might the Eastern Conference race be far different because no one fears Cleveland or Boston at this juncture?
I am going to be doing some reading between the lines on this front over the closing NBA cycle, but it just may well be that that race for the #7/#8 seeds may bring a higher intensity level than usual.
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
The NCAA title game is not the only show in town ion the hardwoods tonight, a make-up game between the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves now getting enough market play to open something up, and it will be #801 Portland Team Total Over (7:00 Eastern). The trigger gets pulled with 107.5 now appearing for the first time, courtesy of the full game total dropping from 218 to 215.5.
The Blazers should have the proper energy level, having moved two full games ahead of Denver for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs, and it was a non-taxing 130-117 win over Phoenix to cap a week at home for them on Saturday, But I don’t want to trust them to win the game outright because of the severe limitations at center without Josef Kurkic, Meyers Leonard the only natural player at the position, and Leonard a dubious matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns.
But I can bet the Blazers to score because the Minnesota defense is gassed. I will be writing about the Washington defense as one of the lead topics for tomorrow, and the impact fatigue has had on the Wizards, but no team is suffering more on that front than the Timberwolves right now. Andrew Wiggins now leads the NBA in minutes at 2,798, and Towns is #2 at 2,776, perhaps more than Tom Thibodeau really wanted given their stages of physical development (Wiggins just turned 22, Towns is 21), and it is showing on the defensive end. In going 2-7 SU and ATS over their last nine games they have allowed 118.0 PP100, and if we look at all teams over that span they rate dead last across the NBA (in that same span, the Trail Blazers are the #4 offense).
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