Point Blank – October 28-30, 2016 World Series
The World Series goes to Wrigley (and let’s go ahead and soak some of it in as fans as well)…
As the Indians and Cubs head to Wrigley Field it is one of those times in which it won’t just be about making money for me – there is a special pageantry in place given the history, and it has brought some high levels of literacy into play, including this nice piece from Jason Stark, on the ivy turning red.
No one ever wrote about baseball better than Roger Angell, and if you haven’t had the chance to read the collections of his prose it is something you should take the time to do so (Amazon has “The Summer Game”, “Five Seasons” and “Season Ticket” available in a nicely priced Kindle package). I will use some of the best of Angell to help set up the weekend - Since baseball time is measured only in outs, all you have to do is succeed utterly; keep hitting, keep the rally alive, and you have defeated time. You remain forever young.
That is superb writing, setting the tone for the drama ahead, and it also becomes the proper connection as the Bob Dylan tribute continues here. Let’s take those notions of being Forever Young and go to the recent 2016 Bridge School benefit, Neil Young, Roger Waters, GE Smith, My Morning Jacket and so many others joining in beautifully -
May you build a ladder to the stars
And climb on every rung
Of course we do that by making money…
And now on to Game #3
It isn’t just Wrigley tonight, but potentially an interesting Wrigley, the sort of thing many hoped for across time but have not had a chance to see – how about the old ballyard with one of those winds blowing towards Lake Michigan…
Which will be part of the running story as the day goes on. But Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit and better known as Palmtree around these parts, believes that wind has already been factored in, and he is in play. I will let him take the lead, as always his comments in ITALICS –
Game #3 Under 8
I made the number 7.5 so I think there's value just on a numbers basis. But I believe this game fits my narrative of low scoring and tightly played games in this series. We didn't see any evidence in the first two games that either side would be able to string together a bunch of hits and base-runners and build big innings. I see no reason that changes today.
Kyle Hendricks has been brilliant all season and quite possibly deserves the NL Cy Young Award. I did a big write up on him before game 2 of the last series so no reason to repeat that here. The missing peace is Josh Tomlin.
Tomlin is one of those guys that will never wow you on the mound but you almost always know what you'll get from him. The strikeout-to-walk ratio is around 5 / 1, which is way above average. He doesn't do anything great but he's unlikely to blow up and give away a big inning. He had a tough August but rebounded well in September and October.
It's stating the obvious, but the lack of the DH takes Schwarber and Guyer out of the lineup.
Hendricks has been brilliant on this mound All Season, which is why he starts today instead of Game #2. Maddon made the gamble on starting Arrieta and it paid off. We're looking at a maximum of two times through the lineup for Tomlin before the bullpen, which is now well rested, takes over. One small edge for Tomlin is that only a couple of Cubs have ever seen him. Just 25 career at-bats against this lineup and 19 have been Ben Zobrist, who is 2 for 19.
When looking at the matchups before Game #1 I felt that this was the game the Cubs had the biggest Edge. Even with that being so I still think the number is too high and If this were a Tuesday in July I'd be taking the + 175. But it's not and I'm not. I think there are a lot of things working against getting to nine runs here so I'll be on the under 8. Naysayers will point out a wind out to left. I don't think there's enough offense to get the nine runs and beat me.
I am also in play, but for a lesser amount, agreeing with the handicap to Hendricks, but seeing vulnerability for Tomlin. The latter simply is who he is, a “pitch to contact” guy that brings value to a rotation because he can eat innings, and with the kind of defense the Indians back him up with that does matter. But Wrigley with some wind may be a tough place for a guy who sported a 4.40 ERA and 4.88 FIP this season, and is at 4.58 and 4.55 for his career. In other words, this is who he is.
Tomlin is not going to strike many batters out, a 6.1 K/9 this season that matches his 6.0 career, and the problem is that when contact is made in the air it has been good contact against him – there were 84 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings this season, and his HR/FB% of 17.7 rated #80. Want a darker cloud? There are 132 pitchers that have thrown at least 300 innings across the last three seasons, and Tomlin’s 16.5 rates dead last.
Where I will place my focus is on Hendricks over Tomlin, and look to the prop of #902 Cubs First Half -.5, which I see available at -135, but I am only doing it for a half play because I am not uncovering a secret with this handicap – this is not a bargain price play, but rather a game flow notion that I believe has just enough merit to work (I would have needed -125 for a full play). As for that wind I will be checking as the day goes on, but here is the current projection –
6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
15 mph South |
16 mph SSW |
17 mph SSW |
19 mph SSW |
20 mph SSW |
19 mph SSW |
Conditions |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Temperature |
64 °F |
63 °F |
62 °F |
62 °F |
61 °F |
62 °F |
Humidity |
67 % |
72 % |
75 % |
78 % |
81 % |
82 % |
Chance of Rain |
1 % |
1 % |
1 % |
1 % |
2 % |
2 % |
Saturday Night Game #4
It turned out to be fitting to open the weekend discussion with some historical perspectives, because Game #3 brought some memorable Baseball, and in particular what the Eye Test can do for us as a handicapping tool.
A lot of hitters put up bad statistics last night, which means that someone wanting to create a narrative can, about various players failing in the clutch. But I saw few hitters fail in Game #3; instead it was tremendous pitching, with not many good swings available the entire evening. It was also that quality of pitching that kept a brisk hitter’s wind out of play – there were only two instances the entire night in which that wind was any kind of factor. I did not see hitter’s failing; instead I saw pitcher’s winning.
Tonight should bring more of that from Corey Kluber and the Indians bullpen, and the Chicago bullpen, but I am not certain where John Lackey fits into the equation – he has only worked eight innings over the past month, four each against the Giants and Dodgers on the road, and there wasn’t anything special about his stuff at all – 15 base-runners across those two stints, and an 18.3 PPI. The question is whether the Indians can take advantage – they have only scored 20 runs in eight games since the LCS started, but have managed to turn that into a 6-2 through excellent pitching and solid defense (even with a couple of errors attached to the latter last night). Indians other than Francisco Lindor batted .138 in the Toronto series, and outside of Lindor it has been just .202 against the Cubs.
I think the markets are high on the Side here, with must-win Chicago bettors forcing an inflation that has Lackey as high as -135 this morning, and I do see a small opportunity there given the conditions, which far more favor the pitchers than they did on Friday (the temperature has dropped and it will be a slight wind blowing in). I don’t want to have to trust the Cleveland offense to produce, but since the high line on the Cubs impacts all equations, it allows for #904 Chicago Team Total Under to be found at 3.5, and that is a fit.
I don’t have concerns about Kluber on short rest, since he has done it before and had a manageable 88-pitch outing in the opener, and for the purposes of this ticket getting Andrew Miller out at 17 pitches last night also helps. And of course there may also be that break that if the Cubs happen to be leading 3-2 after Cleveland has been retired in the ninth inning, we don’t have to sweat getting any additional outs.
7:08 PM CDT on October 29, 2016
| 6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
8 mph North |
9 mph NNE |
8 mph NNE |
8 mph NNE |
7 mph NNE |
7 mph NNE |
Conditions |
Mostly Cloudy |
Chance of Rain |
Chance of Rain |
Chance of Rain |
Chance of a Thunderstorm |
Chance of a Thunderstorm |
Temperature |
57 °F |
56 °F |
56 °F |
56 °F |
56 °F |
55 °F |
Humidity |
99 % |
99 % |
97 % |
95 % |
93 % |
92 % |
Chance of Rain |
11 % |
11 % |
11 % |
11 % |
53 % |
53 % |
Sunday Night Game #5
The Indians played a superb all-around game to put themselves on the brink of a championship in Game #4, with Corey Kluber getting the engravers prepared for his Series MVP award, working six solid innings at only 81 pitches, which can have him well-set for a Game #7 on Wednesday.
So after that kind of blowout why would there even be mention of a Game #7? Because after what had the makings of a crescendo last night, there may yet be a plot twist ahead to the 2016 MLB season. For as close as Cleveland is to wrapping up, the next two games bring unusual matchups, so let’s set the stage.
Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta are not only better than Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, but they come in with the advantage of full rest, which their Cleveland counterparts don’t have. It is one thing for an ace like Kluber to come back after a short turnaround, but Bauer worked to a 4.26 ERA and 3.99 FIP this season, which is not far off of his career 4.42/4.24. He projects as a slightly below average MLB starter when on his game, but now is having to work around the down time caused by that finger injury, and he was awful in Game #2. Bauer needed 87 pitches to get through 3.2 frames, with eight of the 18 Cubs he faced reaching base via a hit or walk, and he was fortunate to only have two runs charged against him. An “A” level pitcher might be expected to bounce back here, but over Bauer’s last eight appearances it has been a 6.75 allowance and a 1.58 WHIP, and journeyman rarely work under this pressure on short rest.
Of course none of this is lost on the odds makers, which does not leave much opportunity for this evening. I’ll let Palmtree chime in on that front -
I've already finished my work and I make it Lester -190, with 6.5 flat without any weather adjustment, and no knowledge if Miller is available. So I won't be any help to anyone. I hate betting totals in elimination games as they tend to get away if the game is one sided late.
So is there anything actionable here? Close, but not quite. I see value in a Cubs Series ticket at +350 or better, which was out there for a flash last night, but no longer. While ordinarily I would believe that an open parlay across the next three games to Chicago might pay better, which is the usual market phenomenon, that may not be the case here – there may be a herd mentality to the Cubs in Game #6 should they win tonight, and if there is a Game #7 it would mean the momentum has shifted, and that herd mentality would likely be in play again. So +350 would likely pay a bit better than rolling over the tickets, but I wouldn’t want to take anything less.
As for Sunday I don’t have anywhere to go at the current price points, but I do expect to be back on Tuesday writing about a Game #6.
| 6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
7 mph North |
6 mph NNE |
6 mph NNE |
6 mph NNE |
6 mph NE |
6 mph NE |
Conditions |
Mostly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Temperature |
51 °F |
50 °F |
50 °F |
49 °F |
49 °F |
49 °F |
Humidity |
78 % |
79 % |
79 % |
79 % |
79 % |
78 % |
Chance of Rain |
40 % |
10 % |
10 % |
10 % |
1 % |
1 % |
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