Point Blank – October 14

Are the Betting Markets Tangled Up in Cowboy Blue (which allows for a trip to Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood)…And now the Markets have their Read on Reid as well…The LCS breakdowns begin (the Dodgers have been really, really bad against left-handers)…

Today brings us an ideal opportunity to delve into stats, trends and market behaviors, getting to the very essence of what this process is all about – what factors do you believe bring an edge against the current line vs. what factors have already been priced into that line. It is the very essence of what we do each day.

With a long read ahead across multiple topics the jukebox gets plugged in, and will remain that way throughout next week – why not a tribute cycle to Bob Dylan, who has appropriately been award a Nobel Prize for literature. He is here in Las Vegas this morning, having played at the The Chelsea last night, and his remarkable catalog brings a wonderful opportunity to build connections. Today it is the question of whether or not the betting markets are rushing Dallas a bit too quickly, and may be “Tangled up in Blue”. This one was from Forest Hills back in July -

Now to ponder that entanglement...

Item: I think the Cowboys are much improved

Sub-Item: I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are not what they used to be

Sub-Item: I am betting the Packers

It would not be saying anything dramatic to state that Dallas has made great strides this season; that is a “Duh” at this point. And after a subpar 2015, much of which could have been not having Jordy Nelson around, Aaron Rodgers is putting up even worse numbers through the first four games of this campaign. Because Rodgers is so high profile, there is also a major “Duh” on that front as well. Want to have fun with numbers? The current YPA and COMP% for Rodgers are both career lows, and in the latter category this is the fifth consecutive season of decline.

So what do odds makers do? They recognize Dallas as being better, and Green Bay being weaker, and adjust. The markets do the same. And it is no surprise to read and listen to folks making cases to play the Cowboys this week because of the factors already mentioned. Now it is to the point at which you can lay -3.5 with the Packers this morning, and in this instance I believe the horse may now be trying to catch up to the cart.

Let’s set perspective for what -3.5 means. The Packers have been favored in 49 straight Rodgers regular-season home starts, back to mid-2009. Over the last five seasons they have only been lower than -3.5 on three occasions, -3 vs. New England here in 2014, and -3 vs. both Seattle and Minnesota last year, though note that the latter two games were impacted by Nelson’s absence. So there is absolutely a factoring of a perceived offensive malaise in play.

Now we move further on two fronts – has the offense really declined that much, and even if it has are there defensive improvements that mitigate against that in the grand scheme? This supposedly struggling offense has just had back-to-back home games in which they scored 48 points in the first half, with Rodgers throwing six TD passes. Combined the two outings s a 60-minute game and it would grade out as the best game any offense has played in 2016. Yet the overall game numbers are not great because of the second half flows, which presents a challenge to the handicapper – was that a case of Green Bay not being able to sustain those early bursts, or was it Mike McCarthy doing what he does so often, backing off with a lead? That is what we have the Football Outsiders for. As noted here often, I like the work those folks do, in particular when it goes to grading many of the subtleties of the sport, like game management. If you want to get a better feel for their methodology, you can read some background here.

What do they think of this struggling Packer offense? On their best charts, Green Bay is rated #5 in the NFL so far this season. That lends a different perspective, because it does analyze the second half of Packers/Lions and Packers/Giants in full detail.

Here is another way to look at it, which helps simplify matters and indeed shows that that there is a lot of game management going on in the Green Bay statistics, using Pace as the base -

Green Bay SPS

1st Half      26.4 (#8)

2nd Half     29.5 (#27)

That isn’t new. If we throw out 2015 because of the Nelson absence, and go back to the last full season with him, here is the 2014 pacing –

1st Half       26.9 (#8)

2nd Half      30.0 (#31)

That does clarify things a bit. The Packers may not be what they used to be on offense, but just had two dynamic showings at home, performances better understood via play-to-play breakdown that the standard box score read. How about this from McCarthy to the media earlier this week - "You know, we had 400 yards of offense, so I don't know why the hell I've got to come in here and answer questions about the things you think that went wrong.”

Now the flip side of the line adjustment. Dallas is being priced at a lofty level at the +3.5, so let’s consider what they Cowboys have done in their road games to earn it –

@Washington     +3     27-23

@San Francisco -1.5   24-17

If we do a quick comparison, the markets are now saying that Green Bay is a half point better than the Redskins, and five better than the 49ers. Those obviously isn't close to reality. And yes, there is the issue that those were the prices at the time, and not where they would be today, with adjustments having been made. But what was so special about those road efforts anyway? The Cowboys trailed the Redskins in the fourth quarter, and were trailing San Francisco late in the third quarter before NaVorro Bowman was injured and the 49er defense collapsed. Meanwhile their 4-1 has been complied against teams that are a combined 9-16.

So what do we have? A case of a game in which the markets are pushing Dallas in one direction and Green Bay in the other, much of it for proper reasoning, but also taking it too far. Then there is the fact that one of the unsung elements of this matchup, an improved Packer defense, now provides the stiffest challenge to the Dallas ground game so far, the Cowboys have being gifted with a ride of facing the #10, #32, #25, #23 and #16 rush defenses so far. So in this instance I not only see just about every once of Dallas improvement already being factored into the line, but that it has now gone too far, and that while Rodgers has declined, it is not nearly as bad as this price makes it out to be. This is how markets work, and this is how we maneuver inside of those markets.

And for more on that front…

Item: The Markets have their read on Andy Reid

It will not be easy for you to read any handicapping newsletter, or listen to serious handicapping shows, without being told that Andy Reid has gone 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS off of bye weeks. There is something genuine there; Reid is a master of detail and organization, and we can sum it up best through his own words – “In this league’s there’s never plenty of time. There’s always an urgency for now. You’re not going to fix problems unless there’s a massive amount of urgency that takes place.”

While other coaches may use a bye for a bit of a break, Reid stays on the throttle. But guess what, much like some of those Dallas/Green Bay notions noted above, the markets are also fully aware of this pattern. The Chiefs opened +2 at Oakland, and now are as high as -2 themselves, with -1.5 the most common price. At this point can you step to the window and use Reid’s track record believing it brings an edge? Not anymore.

I will have more forays on this front as the season unfolds because it is an important discipline for the serious handicapper to be involved in. Our goal is to be searching for edges that can be used to beat the line, and that means developing the cognition of when those edges have already been used in setting the line where it happens to be.

Now time for some baseball…

Item: On to the LCS

To make the weekend flow a little easier, there will be separate MLB threads again for Saturday and Sunday, tomorrow bringing games from each league, and Cubs/Dodgers in prime time on Sunday night (which may end up being the high drama of Kershaw/Hendricks in Wrigley).

We will be joined until the final out of the World Series by Eric Strasser, author of "Betting Baseball for Profit" better known as Palmtree around these parts, and we are in agreement as each series begins. As I write this the Cubs have opened -190 at the Westgate in Las Vegas, and at -210 or less there is value to put #804 Chicago Series in pocket. Later today as the various subsets get out there we can go into more detail in the follow-up threads, and any addition props will be made part of the Saturday edition. Now time for the Palmtree analysis (this takes will be in ITALICS throughout the playoffs) -

I haven't played anything on the ALCS or Game #1. I find it very difficult to look at two teams that haven't played in almost a week and figure out what's going to happen. The edges for both teams are pretty obvious. I don't think the Cleveland rotation can hold up for a week against the Toronto lineup with all the injuries. But if the Indians can get the games to the 6th or 7th inning they have a big end-game advantage . So I look for the Indians to try and manufacture runs, while the Blue Jays will wait for the big inning they know is coming. But the Indians won't give the Blue Jays the same kind of help Texas did by kicking the ball all over the yard. Last year they were terrible defensively, and now they're top five in the league. I don't think there's a better left side of the infield in all of baseball than Ramirez and Lindor.

I'll be looking for opportunities to play the Indians in bullpen games, and I'll also be looking for spots to play Overs. I think there's some value in the Indians + 130ish to win the series, but I'm not going to get involved.

It was nice to see Dave Roberts play to win in Washington. He's the first manager I've actually seen do that in a couple of years. But they may not make the number high enough on the Cubs for Game #1. It'll be a quality Lefty in Lester against the Dodgers lineup that just does not match up. I think that closes close to - $3 and I think it's going to be an extremely short series. As long as the numbers aren't ridiculous I'll be loading up on the Cubs in four and Cubs in 5 props.

Here is the gist on that game #1 matchup (I don’t expect to see a line up until later this morning) – the Dodgers didn’t just struggle vs. left-handed pitching, they were terrible. Let’s compare their performance vs. the rest of MLB, noting that they were not just dead last across the board, but in some categories not even close to the #29 team -

                  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Dodgers     .213  .290  .332  .622

Next worst  .234  .298  .363  .666

And this is not just Lester as the starter, but also Chapman/Wood/Montgomery available from the bullpen throughout. So while the price for Game #1 may come out a bit stiff, incorporate that edge into the Series Play is significant – there is a damn good chance of getting out of the gate 1-0.

In the Sights, Sunday NFL…

One of the things I did not expect to find as Sunday morning rolled around was value to the Patriots, but now there are scattered -7’s out there, and plenty of -7.5 at reduced vig. That is more than fair range to get #252 New England (1:00 Eastern) in play. For as high profile as this team is there may genuinely be an element that the markets will be a step slow to recognize, and that tis the story of that Bennett/Gronkowski combination, which was a feature topic here in the summer and again this week after their first game working with Tom Brady. It is today’s opponent that helps set one particular aspect of that concept up best.

For the Patriots this is a combination of both talent and tactics, that duo creating major headaches for opposing DCs, who have to come up with a once-in-a-season game plan. Where they will be at their very best is in the red zone, which is crucial in terms of maximizing opportunities. NE scored TDs on three out of four such trips last Sunday, the only FG coming when working with a big lead in the fourth quarter. But Andy Dalton does not enjoy Brady’s riches at the position, and it is the absence of Tyler Eifert that continues to cause inefficiency for the Cincinnati offense – the Bengals are #30 in converting red zone trips to TDs, after rating #6 last season, when Eifert caught 13 passes that went to the end zone. You can even put an * next to that, because two of the Cincinnati successes in the category came on late drives vs. Dallas last week when down 28-0 and 28-7. I look for those problems to be in play again here, and for New England to build to build this final margin out into double figures.

For your listening pleasure –

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