Point Blank – October 6
The Most Interesting Game Ever Played (or at least one of them)…Derek Carr can drive in the fast line against the depleted Chargers…The Army option may have a (Blue) Devil of a time getting untracked at Duke…
The Wild Card round of the MLB playoffs turned out to be just that, both games tied in the 9th inning before dramatic HRs eventually moved the Blue Jays and Giants forward. Bumgarner/Syndergaard certainly lived up to the billing, with each throwing so many unhittable pitches. Now the meat of the playoffs arrives today, although at the current price points there may not be anything for the portfolio.
More on that in a moment, but first time to discuss some general handicapping notions, and also set part of the stage for Boise State/New Mexico on Friday night…
Item: The Most Interesting Game Ever Played (or at least one of them...)
OK, that is obviously a subjective headline and there are dozens of others that could be brought into the discussion. But I get to play judge and juror here, and as the focus turns towards Friday’s matchup there is no proper way to appreciate it without taking a hard look at what happened in 2015, on the blue carpet in Boise. It is a tale for the times.
Boise State was favored by -30.5. In the game the Broncos ran 114 plays, to just 52 for the Lobos. So before going any further ponder those numbers. If a team is favored to win by more than four TDs they are obviously far better than their opponent, and if you give a team with such an edge 62 more tries to make an offensive play, what does the scoreboard project to be? The play gap was so wide that even some folks I know that use statistical game simulators can’t plug a model in; it was unprecedented. Just think it through in your mind a bit, and try to come up with something that feels right. Boise by 50? Perhaps 60?
And then there is the final showing on the scoreboard:
NEW MEXICO 31 BOISE STATE 24
Rather shocking, isn’t it? I bring this up in general because major gaps in play counts are becoming a part of the landscape in the modern era, including that 97-49 that Utah put up at California last weekend, which was touched upon in the Monday NCAA Review. As such, more than ever before, it is “Rate Stats”, not “Raw Stats”, that should be the focus of the shrewd handicapper. Hence back to one of the best examples on the theme there will ever be –
BS NM
1st Downs 40 11
Total Offense 638 413
Looks dominating, doesn’t it? But on a per-play basis -
BS NM
Rush 3.4 5.0
Pass 6.8 16.8
Total 5.6 7.9
That is an entirely different portrait, and correlates much better to the scoreboard. The four New Mexico TD drives covered 265 yards, but only required 13 plays. Want to have even more fun with numbers?
BS NM
Plays 114 52
Possession 33:09 26:51
The time gap was not all that wide, despite the disparity in snaps. Bob Davie was indeed trying to slow the game down when he could, so that his defense would not wear out, but his own offense scored so quickly it became problematic – the New Mexico defense was gassed at the end of the game, but finally ended it by making a tackle at the three-yard line when Boise threatened to send it to overtime.
Is there a revenge motive to the Broncos on Friday night? Absolutely. But it comes with a caution flag – those 31 points at 7.9 per play that the Lobos produced vs. the Boise defense last year were on the heels of 49 points at 9.6 per play the previous season, a game they led 49-41 in the fourth quarter before falling 60-49. Over the past two seasons the Lobos have generated a shocking 80 points and 1,040 yards out of only 117 offensive plays, a rather astounding 8.9 per snap. Now it is new Bronco DC Andy Avalos matching up against Davie for the first time, which brings the potential for even more intrigue in this one.
Fantasy QB Week #5 – DEREK CARR
Neither the betting markets nor the Fantasy salary structures budged at all with the announcement that CB Jason Verrett will miss the remainder of the season for the Chargers, on top of losing Manti Te’o earlier, and with CB Brandon Flowers still not having cleared concussion protocol. That takes Carr to the top of the value list this week. He can be found at #8 on both the DraftKings and FanDuel boards, a solid opportunity for the kind of numbers he can put up against the San Diego defense.
What might add a little extra to Carr’s production may be an injury that indirectly helps – Latavius Murray has been downgraded to doubtful, which takes away Oakland’s best power back near the goal line, potentially opening the door for more passing TDs. And note that stepping up for Murray will be rookies DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, who have combined to catch 11 passes for 76 yards in limited roles, and can be utilized even more now in the passing game.
Item: On to the Thursday Diamonds
It looks like a day of only tracking the playoffs, not playing – neither Eric Strasser nor I have anything coming out of pocket at the current prices. Palmtree would show the Red Sox at -125, and I get bells beginning to chime on the Rangers around that same plateau, but we are unlikely to see those price points appear. Here are Eric’s notes on the matchups -
I haven't played either with the Thursday games. I think both prices are close and I'm not seeing any edges. Here are a couple of bullet points that I'm looking at:
Are the Jays focused after ever pouring champagne 48 hours ago? Who's closing for the Jays? It didn't look right when Ozuna walked off Tuesday night with the trainer. I'm not looking at Hamels or Darvish as a liability because they closed the season poorly, but I'd like to see something from both before laying those prices.
I think the Red Sox win the series as well as Game #1 but I can only bet them here if the line drops. One of my hard and fast rules, especially in the playoffs, is to never back a pitcher who has a BB rate more than double his opponent, which takes Trevor Bauer completely out of consideration for me. I think the Indians will run wild on the Red Sox if they get the chance. As great as Porcello has been. I'm not willing to lay a price with him on the road in a playoff game yet. The Red Sox work for me at -125 or better which I doubt we see.
Wouldn't it be great if Hamels threw one behind Bautista in the first inning? I know it will never happen but it would set off five games of unbelievable chaos with the entertainment factor off the charts. I I think the Judge would have a great chance to win the series if knew that Ozuna was healthy, and they weren't holding Sanchez for Game #3 which I don't understand.
But while only watching the Thursday MLB, there is some college football to bet…
(UPDATING: A major surge in the marketplace has now dropped #938 Texas to as low as -115, and that is the "go" price, so we are in play after all.)
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
One of the reasons why the NCAA gridirons consistently bring the highest rate of return of any sport are the opportunities to find edges that are not even sniffed by the betting markets, in many cases it coming down to the idiosyncrasies of particular matchups. That leads to #336 Duke (note the time change to 3:30 Eastern) for this Saturday, and the tale of Jim Knowles. You can find a little -3.5 out there this morning and plenty of -4, with the value holding up to -5.
Knowles was the LB coach under David Cutcliffe at Mississippi, before going on to be the HC at Cornell in the Ivy League for six seasons. The last of those campaigns did not work out well, so he was free to begin working under Cutcliffe again, this time as the DC. Part of that job entails going up against Georgia Tech’s option schemes each season, and a serious learning curve was put into deciphering Paul Johnson’s playbook, an attention to detail that both Cutcliffe and Knowles are noted for. That is also a prime reason why a once moribund program has been to bowls after each of the last four seasons. It wasn’t just facing GT, however, but also that Army and Navy also find their way on to the schedule regularly as well, that made breaking down the option a priority.
Knowles did not solve the Yellow Jackets immediately, but over time he has – Duke has won and covered the last two head-to-heads, beating the spread by 31 points in the process. And it is in the last two encounters vs. the option attacks of the Academy teams that there has also been much to see. In 2013 they whipped Navy and Keenan Reynolds 35-7 as -4. Then last year it was a trip up to West Point to face Army, and a 44-3 domination as -14, the Black Knights being held to an amazing 120 rushing yards, less than half of the 244 that was their season average. Combine that Army 120 with the 173 allowed to Georgia Tech in 2015, and it was almost flawless technical defensive football, hence the market expectations being beaten by 48 points.
Now the Blue Devils face Army and GT within the space of three weeks, so you know where the focus is going to go, and it is interesting to read the confidence level the players bring. Let’s start with senior safety Corbin McCarthy, a veteran of those past battles - “I have to give a huge amount of credit to our coaches. We know what we’re doing and we have an incredible scheme. We also have the players who can do it down the field – as long as we’re working as a team. I think that’s the key, if everyone’s doing their job and working as a unit, we’re going to react very well.” And from LB Ben Humphreys - “Coach Knowles is the King of the Triple Option. He is so smart in what he does. His schemes are not like anyone else’s. We’ll attack it from different ways. I think that’s something that other people don’t do. We attack the triple option. We don’t let it come at us.”
This is not factored into the line, which is mostly a case of generic power ratings dealing the cards, and it enables us to buy in at a more than fair rate.
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