Point Blank – September 15
Axiom: Many bad teams are worse than they appear to be…This week Eli Manning will be better than he has appeared so far…You may can profiled as a “square” this Saturday, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing…
This is an unusual week on the NCAA board, one of my favorite handicapping notions showing up across a multitude of games. That means time to delve into the concept, and to also buckle in for the ride, a day to “Lay it and Love it”, so to speak. The concept of picking on the weak also extends to Sunday, where Eli Manning has a chance to exploit the New Orleans secondary, yet is still being priced rather fairly to do it in the Fantasy world. And it also time for many of you to help develop a product that can end up being good for your own pockets, which is never a bad thing.
Item: Repeat after me - “Many Bad Teams are Even Worse Than They Appear to be”
That is another plaque that you can have on your desk, and this week’s NCAA board is an ideal time to explore the concept. Here is the gist – many bad teams get statistical boosts because they rarely get hard punches thrown at them by the better teams that they face. For some of these teams at least half of the schedule not only takes it easy on them in terms of preparation, but also in the game flow as well, and that leads to both misleading scoreboards, and stat tables.
These elements are easy to understand. In the grind of a long season coaches look for spots in which they can let up a bit, not having to work the players as hard in practice, or have the starters play deeply into a game, which helps both from reducing fatigue and preventing injuries. Savvy coaches also understand that spending too much time game planning for a weak opponent does not help their team’s long-term development, and that game-planning is difficult anyway because their players will see in the film room how easy it could be, which runs the risk of them losing focus.
This phenomenon is a big part of September football, teams trying to build up their resumes for bowl games by grabbing easy wins against lesser-weights, and also teams in power conferences trying to get a breather or two in there before the real grind begins. It is in the charting of these games that the second part of the notion comes into play – you see how the key cogs throw and catch fewer passes, and have fewer carries from scrimmage, than in their other games. There are many settings in which a team builds a substantial lead at halftime and backs off, which gives the loser the unearned scoreboard/statistical benefit of seemingly playing well in the second half.
The grading of these games is a challenge, but an important exercise in developing better Power Ratings. What it also does is set us up for those rare occasions in which the favorite is going to take such a game seriously, perhaps even extra so, and also those times in which it is the underdog that is not going to put out much of an effort. These games do not happen often, and when they do they bring some of the best edges on the board.
This week Mike Leach is pissed off. I believe that means something.
Leach came into this season knowing that his Washington State team has a lot of upside – except for being blown out in the Apple Cup by Washington last year the Cougars had a legit opportunity to have won every game. The problem is that a team unaccustomed to winning did not take the final steps to finish on a few occasions, and that is exactly what happened at Boise State on Saturday night, a game they could have won, but failed to step up a notch to accomplish that. Which in turn has made this a most intense practice week as a game vs. Idaho presents itself, and a much different flow than usual for such an opponent.
I cannot make this point any better than to let Leach’s own words, from his weekly press conference, set the stage –
“The thing that’s disappointing is that we’re having to re-learn way too many lessons we should have learned last year. We have to hammer these guys. We’ve developed to be a team that, if you want to be nice to them, and all this ‘kumbaya’ crap, it doesn’t work. Their lives are gonna change as they know it and it’s gonna change as they know it for the rest of the season.
“I just think we have a very immature team. I don’t think we handle success well. I think mentally we overindulged whatever success we considered we had last year.
“We have to raise the bar on three of our inside receivers I can think of. If they miss a block in practice, it’s all of a sudden going to get painful. I’ve got receivers running routes that don’t resemble anything we teach, we don’t tuck the ball and go straight upfield, we do all these stupid moves. We run out of bounds more than any team in the country. We’re the easiest team in the country to tackle. Defensively we don’t run our feet on contact, we don’t on offense either. We don’t like to run and hit, and this is a game for running and hitting. We don’t care to do that and we’ve got all this ‘I’ll do it in a game’ type of crap. That whole ‘feel good’ thing has got to be purged. Our team does not have the ability to play hard when there’s any level of comfort.
“The bottom line is, you’ll see more plays repeated, you’ll see significantly louder verbal instruction, I think you might see a lineup shuffle and I think you might see some post-practice extra drills if what we needed is unsatisfactory. I think you’ll see more coaches talking and less players talking, and I think you’ll see less input accepted (from) players in meetings because they’ve proven that we coaches have misjudged their ability to assess and take responsibility for what’s going on. So you’re gonna take back the responsibility. We never should have relinquished it in the first place, and that’s our fault.”
This will not be a fun week to be on a football scholarship in the Palouse. But you know who is likely to have even less fun? Idaho, once the game begins. The Vandals are a classic example of a team that often gets several points artificially boosted to the scoreboard results, and a slew of yards in the box scores, because many of their games are against teams that treat them with kid gloves. How bad could last week’s 59-14 loss at Washington have been? The Huskies led 35-0 at halftime, then scored a TD on the first drive of the second half, and that was it for most of the starters. It could have easily have been 63-7 or so, but it wasn’t, and the late-game Washington offense is what you often see – the final three possessions for the Huskies were only 19 snaps out of 10:12 of possession time.
Will Washington State show a similar kindness this week? I don’t believe so, with Leach going in which an angry focus, plus the fact that since his team does not play next Saturday, there is no reason to hold back – this is the last chance to get them sharp before conference play begins. So what do we do with it? I’ll get back to that in a moment, but first some other items to sort through.
Week #2 Fantasy QB – Eli Manning
Although the Giants offense has struggled to get up to gear, a poor pre-season followed by lackluster showing against Dallas, I believe it is just a matter of time for Eli Manning to get into a rhythm with that talented trio of Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. That time may be at hand this week, with a make-shift New Orleans secondary that lacks the talent and chemistry to be able to compete vs. this class.
The Saints will be using P. J. Williams, a #3 pick in 2015 that sat out all of last season; Da’Vante Harris, an undrafted rookie; and Ken Crawley, another undrafted rookie, in their CB rotation. Sunday was naturally the first NFL game for each, and they were lit up for 319 yards by Derek Carr, with the defense not generating a sack or a turnover.
Confidence should be high for Manning, who threw for 350 yards and six TDs in a wild 52-49 loss at the Superdome last year, and now adds Cruz and Shepard to that cast that ran wild through the New Orleans secondary. Given this matchup, seeing Manning available at #5 on the DraftKings board and #8 at FanDuel brings surprising value.
Item: Calling out all Selfish, Greedy, Data-Craving Sports Bettors (there have to be at least two or three of you reading each day)
There is an invitation to all PB readers to do some trouble-shooting for the good folks at Matchup Center who are building some new platforms that should be a substantial aid for all of us. One of the recurring themes in thread discussions is the multitude of different sites that we have to navigate through each day to get all of the numbers that we want, in particular because most of the folks that were gearing stuff up for sports bettors did it long ago, and upgrading designs can be an expensive process. And of course you know the difficulty of working some of these sites on a mobile device, with a place as useful as FanGraphs becoming a frustration when I am limited to my iPhone.
Now you all have a chance to help in the development process – as the MLB season winds down, and into the playoffs, get in there and kick the tires around. The folks putting this together understand the quality of audience that we have here, and now you all have a chance to play an integral role in their development. There are good people behind this, and the more feedback they get, the better the end product will be. If that end product can not only bring us better stats, but also shave significant time from the workday, that is a tremendous win.
You’ll have plenty of time to sort through while watching Jets/Bills tonight because those two are just going to wrestle around in a scrum for long stretches anyway. On Saturday you will be a little busier watching the action, but first let’s get some Thursday MLB into play…
In the Sights, Thursday MLB…
There is a major gap in enthusiasm in the way that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are playing right now, the former having seen their Wild Card hopes expire, while the Phillies have a lot of young faces working hard to build into 2017. With Jared Eickhoff continuing to be an under-rated notion that brings solid value to get #952 Philadelphia (7:05 Eastern) into play, with -110 available in the early trading, and this one good up to -120.
Eickhoff has been written about here a few times previously, a guy not bringing sex appeal as a high-ceiling prospect, and also not exciting folks by blowing hitters away with his strikeout counts. What he has done is throw strikes, an impressive 2.1 BB/9, and his frame and delivery also bring an element that folks don’t always recognize – his 13.4% IFFB, or pop-ups if you prefer, rates #10 in the Major’s this season. Eickhoff shows no signs of wearing down, working to a 1.50 tune across his first two September starts.
Meanwhile Chad Kuhl could struggle to find a rhythm tonight, working for the first time in 10 days, the last outing being an ugly one vs. the Cardinals in which he was removed after two innings (58 pitches). We also may not see the best Pirate lineup behind him, a rare case of a night game before traveling into a new series, and at this stage Clint Hurdle is certainly allowed to sit a key cog or two
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
I noted above how unusual this Saturday board is for today’s theme because there are a multitude of games that fit the pattern. In each of these there is a favorite that will absolutely take the game seriously, and we get the bonus in all four that this time the underdog is not likely to throw their best efforts into the fray. Here is the day that many of you will have been looking for – the chance for your store to profile you are a “square” early in the season, just one of those recreational guys that likes to bet big chalk because they don’t really understand the nuances of handicapping.
Instead of narrowing the list, I will let them fly…
#144 Kansas State (2:30 Eastern; note the time change). The Wildcats made a good account of themselves at Stanford, the defense playing quite well after needing a couple of series to get into their flow. That unit gets a major upgrade with the return of safety Dante Barnett, much like I believe the offense benefits from the return of QB Jesse Ertz, who will be much better than he was in the opener now that he has that game vs. a tough Cardinal defense under his belt, an outing in which he was also limited by leg cramps. There is no reason for State to not bring the full focus here – there have been two weeks off to prepare, and on deck is lowly Missouri State, a far lesser opponent than FAU. Meanwhile the Owls only show up for a paycheck – they threw their best efforts into that regional battle vs. Miami last week, a big one for them because of how many local kids are on the roster, and instead of chasing in the second half will hold back for next week’s home game vs. Ball State, when there is a legitimate chance to win.
#160 Kentucky (4:00 Eastern; note the time change). There might not be a coach anywhere this week that needs not just a win, but a big win, more than Mark Stoops. Hence no chance of taking New Mexico State lightly, and in this instance I expect little from the Aggies. That rally to beat rival New Mexico last week used up a lot of energy and emotion, and note that they have not responded well after facing the Lobos – the fifth-year seniors are 0-4 SU and ATS in the ensuing game, losing to the spread by 44.5 points in the process. Having beaten New Mexico last week, and with the conference opener at Troy on deck, they have little reason to show much here.
#178 N. C. State (6:00 Eastern). The Wolfpack have a chance to vent some frustrations after their loss at East Carolina, and they are entitled to do it for the full 60 minutes here, with a bye week on deck. With Dave Doeren 13-7 ATS laying double figures (6-3 at State), we can see that he does not mind going for the jugular in such a setting. Meanwhile the Monarchs are another underdog that won’t bring their best – there is a home conference game vs. UTSA next week that they have a legitimate chance to win, so staying fresh and healthy for that one is more important than chasing this one from behind.
#212 Washington State (2:00 Eastern; note the time change). Plenty enough has been said about the expected focus from the Cougars, but consider how disinterested the Vandals could be if this breaks open early. They are in their second of three straight road games, and next week’s trip to UNLV offers them the best opportunity to win a game. Paul Petrino will likely adjust his player rotation towards that purpose, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result here in a game his team has little chance to win.
So there we have it – four big favorites that will take these weak opponents seriously, and in this instance a strong case can be made that none of the four underdogs will produce their best effort.
And for your NCAA listening pleasure -
The Point Blank 2016 NFL Team by Team Previews
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)