Point Blank – June 24
It’s DBF Time, but the Eastern Divisions force an *…If there is a Stairway to Heaven, wouldn’t you rather look up, rather than view the others on the stairs…Vidal Nuno should not be tracked as the Seattle Thursday starter...Tom Koehler looks average this season, but he may not even be that…
The number of tools that can be put into play across the long MLB summer is a rather amazing assortment these days, and now it becomes time to add one more to the 2016 mix - there are 101 starting pitchers that have reached the 70 innings mark now, and it allows DBF, or Difficulty of Batters Faced, to begin carrying enough meaning for consideration. The problem is that this year it comes with a catch, because of the imbalance of both the N.L. and A.L. East in terms of pitching/hitting.
DBF allows for one of the best “Difficulty of Schedule” measurements across any of the major sports. Instead of focusing on how pitchers have done merely against teams, with the usual caveat that unless you could break down the individual lineup each day the team tag was not telling you as much as you would hope, you can now use a collective charting based on the exact batters they have faced.
As always, difficulty of opposition faced does not bring an automatic adjustment, either up or down, but instead offers some food for thought in other processes. Beating weak opponents does not mean that you aren’t good; it means that you have not proven yet that a higher grade is deserved. The difference may be subtle, but it is significant.
So as we prepare for the weekend ahead, let’s also set up some background – while the daily jukebox is now retired until football season, weekend threads do call for something to help carry you through the work cycle ahead. A prime news story on the Rock and Roll front this week has been Led Zeppelin winning a verdict from a trial by jury that “Stairway to Heaven” was not plagiarized from the Spirit instrumental “Taurus”, so we’ll hit the button for a recent cover with Ann and Nancy Wilson leading the way, from a Kennedy Center tribute to Led Zeppelin in 2012 -
For me the camera work unfortunately reduces the experience a bit, but it does provide some fodder for cultural commentary, and a producer friend in Hollywood and I have gone back-and-forth across this front a few times – just why is it that for settings such as this the current trend calls for so many crowd shots? They come across as being both forced, and rather annoying, because it takes the video viewer away from what they would most likely choose to watch.
Think of it this way – if you were in a box at the Kennedy Center that night and had the option, would you focus on watching the Wilson’s, the musicians and the choir passionately working their way through the song, or would you focus on how the crowd was watching the performers? When you go to a sporting event, do you go to watch the event unfold, or to pan around and gaze at the other fans as they watch the event unfold? Sometimes Fox will fall into this trap during the MLB playoffs, a whiplash of crowd shots that can make viewing uncomfortable. This video does the same thing, but is still an ethereal audio experience.
The fact that this type of editing happens means that someone somewhere thinks it’s the right thing to do, but through multiple discussions on the topic, the logic of why it is the right thing escapes my grasp. And enough of that; now back to baseball, as the music plays…
Item: Who you faced absolutely matters
This season DBF brings an added catch, and you will note it rather quickly when you sort through these two lists. So let’s look at the current Top 10 and Bottom 11 (adding one to the latter because it helps to make a point), and develop some feel for just how much impact the category can have. I prefer to use the OPS of the opposing hitters for the measurement –
2016 DBF Top 10
1. Chris Archer .760
2. Hector Santiago .759
3. Marco Estrada .758
4. Marcus Stroman .757
5. Tyler Wilson .757
6. Collin McHugh .757
7. Nathan Eovaldi .756
8. Masahiro Tanaka .755
9. Michael Pineda .755
10. Aaron Sanchez .755
You can see the reason for an * there – the A.L. East has some hitters, with three of the top eight teams in OPS residing in that division, including the Red Sox, who lead the Major’s by a wide margin. Now to the other end of the scale –
2016 DBF Bottom 11
91. Noah Syndergaard .704
92. Gio Gonzalez .703
93. Max Scherzer .702
94. Tom Koehler .700
95. Matt Wisler .698
96. Tanner Roark .696
97. Steve Matz .694
98. Bartolo Colon .693
99. Jacob DeGrom .684
100. Jon Lester .677
101. Matt Harvey .675
The second list just jumps off the page, showing the major imbalance between hitting and pitching in the N.L. East, which includes the Phillies at #29 and the Braves at #30 in OPS. The Mets are at #21 and falling, and imagine where their starters would show in this category if they got the opportunity to face their own hitters? It also tells you something about Matt Wisler’s favorable ride that he sets where he is despite not being able to face the feeble Braves offense.
Now let’s consider what these gaps can mean. Chris Archer has been dealt the equivalent of facing the Blue Jays in every start, while Matt Harvey’s closest comparable would be each game against the Padres. That indeed is going to make a difference in how run prevention numbers get put together, isn’t it? And while that is the extreme measure, the upper and lower quadrants will all show a plus/minus that is worth taking in to some consideration.
Now for the problem of sorting. We don’t penalize the likes of Syndergaard, Scherzer, DeGrom or Lester because we know what they are capable of. It isn’t their fault that they have been dealt easy hands to play. But it can make the difference in charting someone like Wisler, or Koehler, and in fact Koehler will be fodder for the pockets this evening, which I will get to in a moment.
As for the top, while Archer continues to be tracked as having a disappointing season, the schedule should come into play for him.
In his 4-10/4.70 opening to 2016 there has been enough for xFIP to read 3.60 and SIERA 3.76, nearly a full run better than his actual allowance. A problem for Archer has been a HR/FB% of 18.6, far above his career norm of 10.9, yet his GB% of 44.7 is near his career of 46.1. Is this a case of not all that many more fly balls being hit, but the quality of hitters leading to more of them leaving the park? There is plenty of food for thought on that front with a guy who may be under-valued over the next cycle, as long as his confidence remains high (alas, that may be a genuine question).
About Last Night…
I am going to save the Brexit vote, and the way the betting markets went through a stunning roller-coaster, for Monday, so that there can be a weekend of better sorting through some fascinating notions. But there is some awkward baseball tracking from Thursday to deal with, Vidal Nuno becoming the “starting” pitcher for the Mariners when Adrian Sampson felt something wrong with his elbow when warming up.
Naturally this caught Sports Books in an awkward position, and there is the difficulty of having an “opening” line for data-base tracking based on changes after a game had already begun. If you need something you can go with –
Detroit -150
O/U 9.5 Under -115
RL Detroit -1.5 +135
as good ballpark numbers. But what about the game result? I am not going to track Nuno as having made a “start”, but instead a relief appearance, because it more closely approximates his role in the game. I will also not overly penalize him for being ineffective, not only because he was rushed out there, but the Tigers were getting a second look in the same series, after he threw 32 pitches over two innings on Monday (from Brad Ausmus afterwards – “We fortunately we just saw him three days ago, so the guys that faced him, it’s fresh in their mind.”)
In the Sights…
The Cubs are slumping and Tom Koehler looks like an average pitcher, and the markets are doing what they are supposed to do in making adjustments for those notions. I believe they have gone too far here, which opens the door for #905 Chicago Team Total Over (7:10 Eastern) this evening, with 4’s available in the morning trading.
There is absolutely nothing special about Koehler’s stuff, and his career 32-41/4.08 highlights that well, with FIP at 4.20, xFIP at 4.40 and SIERA at 4.49. He is a below average talent without upside, yet he is sitting at 6-6/3.92 this season despite his BB/9 reaching a career high of 5.1. In this case much of it really is about the schedule, and not only has he faced those weak N.L. East offenses, but his last two road games were against the Twins at Target Field, and the Padres in Petco Park. So factor in what the schedule has done for him, and then note that for 2016 xFIP is 4.86 and SIERA 5.07, and you have a below average starter backed by a below average bullpen being asked to hold the Cubs (#3 in the Major’s in road OPS, and important in this particular matchup is rating #1 in BB%) to three runs or less for the ticket to lose. That touches the value meter in the right place to step in.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB…
I don’t think the early markets are in the right place for Dodgers/Pirates, with as high as +136 available for the home team as a Side play and +1.5 on the Run Line available for as low as -131. That has the value bell ringing for #960 Pittsburgh (7:15 Eastern) at +125 or better Straight, and at -140 or less Run Line, and in this case I will play about a 50-50 split since the two options come close to balancing each other out, a favorable return for the Pirates to get an outright win, but also forcing the Dodgers and their .225/.295/.370 vs. left-handers (only the Braves and Phillies have a lower OPS vs. lefties) to get a margin.
Jeff Locke showed a lot of moxie in his last outing, bouncing back from the two worst back-to-back starts of his career to outduel Madison Bumgarner 1-0, and the key cogs behind him are on form – Tony Watson has not allowed a run over his last seven outings, with his lefty offerings particularly important in this matchup, while Mark Melancon has not allowed an earned run since May 15, although the defense did break down in a game vs. Colorado back on May 21, when three unearned runs scored. With Sterling Marte back in the lineup, and Andrew McCutchen having a good game last night after a day off, and also being set back into the #3 slot in the lineup, the timing is there for what has been an under-achieving Pittsburgh team to make up some lost ground.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB…
Sonny Gray is looking like Sonny Gray again, but the markets are not buying in yet, his run since returning to the rotation apparently not enough to offset his 3-6/5.20 bottom line for 2016. That opens the door to take advantage today with #927 Angels/A’s First Half Under (3:35 Eastern), with 4.5 easy to find in the morning trading.
Gray has only allowed two runs over 20 First Half innings since returning to the rotation, and in particular these are the numbers you would want to see in terms of him getting back to his groove –
BB/9 GB%
Astros 1.8 66.7
Reds 1.2 47.8
Rangers 1.5 52.4
Brewers 1.5 52.9
Gray is throwing strikes and inducing ground balls, but the fact that he did not get credit for a win across those outings (0-1/3.28) has kept any alarms from going off.
Meanwhile Hector Santiago is not much more than a battler that eats innings, but that helps to bring this price point, and I like what I have see from him over the last two starts. Santiago went through the worst stretch of his career prior to that, a dismal five-start run of 0-2/12.18, and after getting KO’d by Cleveland in the last of those outings, he has responded with poise in back-to-back solid showings, holding the Twins and Astros to just one run each over a combined 12.1 frames, with as many strikeouts as Hits + Walks allowed. Santiago’s value here stems from that fact that while his 4.99 allowance for full-season 2016 looks ominous compared to a career 3.74, note that is the key “rate” categories not impacted by baseball geometry, he has basically been the same pitcher he always has been; if anything the uptick in BB/9, GB% and SWS% would be considered a positive, had his bottom line shown differently –
Career 2016
K/9 8.2 7.6
BB/9 4.0 3.6
GB% 34.0 39.2
SWS% 8.2 9.5
And as noted in the opening of this topic, Santiago also gets his grades adjusted a bit because of the schedule difficulty and now that levels off a bit, today offering him not all that much of a challenge vs. the pedestrian Oakland offense.
In the Sights, MLB Sunday Part II…
It is difficult to not fade the market move to Tampa Bay this morning, Baltimore now trading below the -130 barrier (I have seen as low as -123), so as the attempts continue to show here that it is every bit as much about playing prices as picking winners, let’s use this one as a a prime example, #920 Baltimore (1:35 Eastern) going into pocket. The gap between these two teams is far wider right now than this price indicates.
The depleted Rays (with Corey Dickerson sitting today the OF gets even more punchless) are on the verge of being swept for the third straight series, but the key is to note that the games have not even been close. The Giants took them 3-0 by 16-6. The Indians pulled a 3-0 by a 19-5 count, despite never batting in the 9th. The Orioles have won the first three in this series 19-9, also without batting in the 9th. So in an 0-6 road trip Tampa has been out-plated 34-14, and that is despite having six extra innings of offense the opposition did not get.
Also note that there is a bit of value to Tyler Wilson from the opening column – his high DBF shows that he has pitched better than his bottom-line suggests, something the markets may not be factoring well in the unexpected morning surge to such a struggling underdog.
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