Point Blank – March 29
Gonzaga and Virginia fell into the Twilight ‘Zone’…Be careful with those Buddy Hield plaudits…Russell Westbrook owned Kyle Lowry (again)…The Hornets should be ready to sting in this setting…
I’m a day late in recapping the Elite Eight weekend, because some key NBA issues demanded immediate attention since they pertained directly to the Monday card, and after a few early birds gobbled the fatter worms of the Final Four Totals, those prices are going to sit fairly stable for a few days anyway. So now it is time to get to work, and that work begins with some superb energy from Syracuse, especially in the way that Jim Boeheim’s tweaking of his defense led to a pair of the best back-to-back end games you will see under tournament pressure.
Item: Syracuse made plays
There is a natural tendency for folks across the Sports Mediaverse, and in the betting community, to form attachments to the early part of game flows, and often struggle to detach from those notions when the narratives don’t hold up. It is part of what we do in being human – we begin absorbing information as it comes in, then file it away, and when it fits pre-conceived notions often we shut the file drawers. Psychology textbooks are filled with that, and there were classic case studies as Gonzaga and Virginia seemed to have control vs. Syracuse across the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, only to have major plot twists at the end, both in the favor of the Orange. What I have read and heard was more about the Bulldogs or Cavaliers “collapsing”, the acceptance of what happened first in those games as being the proper course of sport, and the reversal more a case of those in charge abdicating their temporary scoreboard thrones, rather than being forced to vacate by a powerful uprising. I do not believe that is correct.
With a long read ahead some musical background will help you through, and with Gonzaga and Virginia being taken into the “Twilight Zone” by the Orange defense, it is a proper time to reach back for some classic Golden Earring, this version live in Rotterdam in 2006 -
They are still playing, now into their sixth decade, and if you decide to adopt a side hobby of arguing that George Kooymans, Rinus Gerritsen, Barry Hay and Cesar Zuiderwijk, with the occasional others, have been the most under-appreciated band in the history of Rock and Roll, you can hold your head high knowing that it is most unlikely that anyone will ever be able to prove you wrong…
Of course subjects like this are a matter of opinion, as is the classification as to whether Gonzaga and Virginia were bad, or Syracuse good, in those end-game turnarounds, and since the Orange are still alive to play again it matters. From my end the Eye Test gave most of the credit to Boeheim’s team, but that was also a product of watching much of the same scenario play out twice, rather than being reduced to a single occurrence. With their backs to the wall, they reached back and made plays, combining an intensity that had been missing, with the athleticism that was there all along.
First the basics -
Final 7:00 of regulation:
GONZAGA – 1 FG, 5 points
VIRGINIA – 1 FG, 4 points
Combined Shooting: 2-18
Combined Turnovers: 7
You can also note that the lone basket in that stretch by the Bulldogs on Friday came on a Domantas Sabonis tip-in of a missed shot, which meant that the Syracuse “First Shot” defense allowed one basket over 14:00 of those crucial junctures. It was partially the press getting turnovers, but also the fact that when it was broken, the opposing offense had been thrown out of rhythm, and even they open looks they found did not have the sense of timing behind them.
Why do I attribute more to good defense than bad offense? Look at how dynamic the Syracuse activity was in those two wins, compared to the weekends of the other teams that have advanced to the Final Four:
Steals Blocked Shots
Syracuse 20 17
North Carolina 11 6
Villanova 19 3
Oklahoma 8 7
That is quite a gap in disruptive plays, especially considering the differences in tempos the games were played at. Some of it can be attributed to Boeheim extending the defense more, something he claims to have done mostly out of game situation desperation (believe him when he says that), but perhaps should have been more of the plan all along for the athleticism of this group. And it is also the development of Tyler Lydon, who had 11 of those blocked shots, after also coming up with a half dozen vs. Middle Tennessee State last weekend. A key reason why they did not press during the regular season was a lack of faith in the freshman to be ready to be a rim protector, but that may no longer be the case.
Of course proper Post-Mortems go far beyond the personal Eye Test and charting, and rely on the other key cogs involved in an event. What I did not see was much hand-wringing by Tony Bennett or Mark Few, or of their players, about how their failures let those games get away, there was much more focus from them on what Syracuse had done right.
From Bennett – “They’re really athletic. They did that and bothered some people. They did it to Gonzaga, even at our place (a 73-65 Virginia win as -10, when the Cavaliers shot 56.8 percent, turned the ball over 13 times). They’re long and athletic, and they’re such good anticipators because of all the work they do in the zone. A couple of those turnovers at just the wrong time were enough.” Then Few – “That was a battle. They’re so quick, they’re so long and athletic, it’s hard to deal with some of that.”
From Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon – “I think they had a charge. I think they made plays. … You’ve got to give credit to them, they made plays.” And Gonzaga’s Josh Perkins, who had a chance to knock down a game-winner, but had it altered by Lydon - “I saw a lane and I shot it. Taller guy with long arms blocked it, give him credit for making the play.”
Note the theme throughout, of the Orange making plays. That Syracuse 2-3 morphed into a true “Twilight Zone”, one that reached a special level in those rallies, and Boeheim himself was quick to acknowledge it - “Virginia has beaten us 15 points three straight times, and they were 15 points up today. They're a hard team to come back against, and these guys just made some unbelievable plays. They deserved to win this game.”
Now our challenge becomes determining how many of those plays can be made against North Carolina, in what becomes a much different matchup in terms of pace and athleticism. The bulk of that will come later in the week; for now time for some quick sorts across those other Elite Eight results, in particular focusing on what they may mean for this upcoming Saturday…
Item: Jay Wright’s defense was also in a special ‘zone’
Kansas never found much of an offensive flow vs. Villanova, only scoring .89 PPP, with the ugly ratio of 16 turnovers vs. 50 FG attempts. A significant part of that was Wright throwing an unexpected zone wrinkle at the Jayhawks in the First Half, which was a catalyst for the remaining game flow. Kansas went from a 16-12 lead with 10:40 remaining in the half until being down 25-17 before the next Jayhawk FG, a triple by Devonte Graham with 2:52 remaining. That is a long time to go without making a shot, but a big part of the problem was that during that stretch they could not even get them – the Jayhawks had eight turnovers across that run, and in one remarkable stretch turned the ball over seven times in eight possessions.
It was a great tactical move by Wright but there may not be the need to dig much deeper into the Wildcat zone because we may not see it this week – that is absolutely not the way to challenge Oklahoma…
Item: Oregon was lost again vs. 3-point shooters (but be careful in anointing Buddy Hield)
One of the key focus points in breaking down the Oklahoma/Oregon clash on this page last Saturday was that the Ducks exhibited a major weakness all season at guarding the 3-point line. It looked like an ominous matchup consideration and turned out to be indeed that – with Hield’s 37 points leading the way the Sooners drained 12-24 beyond the arc. Oregon finished the season having allowed an unsightly 36.2 percent from long range, #259 in the nation for a team that was terrific elsewhere. Their flaw just happened to run into one of the worst possible matchups.
That shooting by Hield was not news to folks that have followed the sport closely (and for the true insiders, nor was the fact that so many of those looks vs. Oregon were open), but it was a break-out for some across the Sports Mediaverse just beginning to tune in more closely. As such, once again you must be careful with that information flow – Hield shot the ball well last week, but Hield did not necessarily play well. How about this – in those wins over Oregon and Texas A&M he committed 11 turnovers, only had three assists, and did not come up with a single steal in 77 floor minutes. What is one of the things that the Villanova defense has done well? Get out into shooters, and make them put the ball on the floor to create. Stay tuned for more on that…
Item: North Carolina owned the boards (and may for the remainder of the season, whether it be 40 minutes or longer)
North Carolina has now elevated itself to #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency, and as noted here last week it is a challenging rating to process, because the Tar Heels have not been a great offensive team. The stat is a but fluky because grabbing an offensive rebound and getting an easy put-back is graded as a new possession by most charting, and that is where so much of their success comes from – they are #3 in the nation in corralling 40.3 percent of their own misses. There wasn’t much Notre Dame could do about that on Sunday, a game in which Brice Johnson had more rebounds in the first half than the entire Fighting Irish roster, and for the full game it was a 31-14 domination of the glass, Carolina getting more offensive rebounds (12) than Mike Brey’s team had defensive caroms (nine). Imagine an Elite Eight game in the 30-second shot clock era in which a team only gets nine offensive trips the entire game that came after stopping the opposition and getting a rebound. I don’t expect to see that again in my lifetime.
As for the workweek ahead, for as athletic and active as that Syracuse defense is, the Orange have had a major weakness in keeping teams from the offensive glass, rating #337 in the nation at clearing the defensive boards.
Item: The Thunder made the Raptors look extinct
Sub-Item: Russell Westbrook owned Kyle Lowry (again)
Sub Sub-Item: How much of the Lowry season is because the East point guards are weak…
Are we going to have to go through the process of considering Oklahoma City to still be a genuine part of the race for the NBA Championship? Perhaps. You can play with some interesting trivia stuff that does not mean a whole lot, like the fact that they are on an 8-0 run in which they have scored at least 110 points each time, which has not happened since Orlando did it 22 seasons ago. What does bear watching was just how remarkably dominant the Thunder were last night, and I believe it does merit scrutiny.
Entering that game Toronto had played teams with a win percentage of 57.5 or better 11 times at home, and had gone 10-1 SU and ATS. The only SU loss was by three to Golden State in a well-played affair, and the only ATS failure was a game that some would call a “W” anyway, a cover in overtime vs. Miami that I do not credit. But last night was a wipeout. First consider how remarkable the domination was with the starting lineups –
Minutes +/-
Westbrook 34:06 +35
Roberson 24:44 +25
Durant 36:53 +15
Ibaka 32:43 +39
Adams 28:18 +33
----------------------------------
Lowry 36:27 -19
DeRozan 33:37 -26
Powell 27:49 -22
Scola 15:21 -17
Valanciunas 26:30 -19
When four of the five OKC starters show a better than a point-per-minute advantage, it is rather staggering. Most important of all was the Westbrook/Lowry matchup, and as one sided as it was it was also not new, Westbrook also controlled that one at home earlier, despite the Thunder losing. Let’s add up the two encounters –
Pts FG Reb A TO
Westbroook 48 18-37 16 28 11
Lowry 31 9-28 6 5 9
Rather amazing, isn’t it? Lowry’s break-out season continues to be a remarkable story after a long tour as not being much more than an NBA journeyman, but one has to wonder if he may be wearing down a bit because of the load he has been carrying, and also whether so much of his success really stems from the fact that there is such a major gap between the quality of PG play between the two conferences.
There may be something to see here from each side of those equations as the playoffs approach.
Item: And about grading those Laker Overs
Yes, by the simple counting the Lakers are now at 14-6 to the Over in Kobe Bryant’s “Last Call” road games, but Monday’s result also speaks volumes about how trends can often be built upon a foundation of silliness. Bryant was utterly terrible in his final bow to the Salt Lake City fans, going 1-11 from the field and compiling a mind-numbing -44 across his 27:44 stint. It did go down as the worst scoreboard loss of his long career, and he can be proud to know that he played a major part in that imbalance.
In the Sights…
There is a setting on the Tuesday NBA board that goes back to one of my favorite handicapping concepts of all, that rare game in which a truly awful team will be taken seriously by the opposition, and it brings #765 Charlotte First Half (7:05 Eastern) into play, with -6.5 available in the morning markets. In this one, the Hornets have absolutely no reason to not put the full focus on the 76ers, since they are the only team they will face across the span of seven days, with a rematch coming at home on Friday.
The Hornets should bring the physical energy to go with the proper mental focus. They are only two games out of the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, yet still have work to do to grab the #4 and a first round home court, and with two days to prep for this game, and another two before playing Friday, they can fully absorb the Philadelphia weaknesses. Meanwhile the 76ers may be even more vulnerable than usual, having only one day off to regroup following a road trip that had them in Portland on Saturday and Golden State on Sunday. Charlotte has taken care of business by 25 and 20 in the first two head-to-heads this season and I call for more of the same here, but will make the First Half the focus – there is the chance that Steve Clifford might back off late against an opponent he has to face again shortly, but there should be no holding back from jumping out to seize early control.
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