Point Blank – November 16
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #11
The weekend that was on the NCAA gridirons, and a sorting through of some of the key issues to find opportunities on the games to come…
Item: It’s late November now
One of the reasons why college football can bring such major edges is that a season is actually several different acts played out across the stage, each bringing their own unique elements of both comedy and drama. Now it is time for one of the major ones, that closing stretch in which the weather gets colder, the wind begins blowing a bit more, tired bodies wear down, and the playing of the game moves closer to the middle of the field, the ability to run and defend the run taking on larger roles. It is not just tactics now, but also a matter of wills, and knowing which teams still have something left is of tantamount importance as the power ratings get adjusted.
Fatigue has been written about often here this season, with some difficult schedules having major impacts on the way certain teams have crumbled. How can a 7.5-point home favorite lose a game 42-14? They can if it happens to be a Hawaii team playing for the 11th straight week without a bye, and having had six separate trips to the mainland built in to that (yet shockingly the betting markets were all over the Warriors in that game). Which also leads to the counter of just how much does one upgrade Fresno State, which exceeded the market expectations by five touchdowns, but did it against such a worn down opponent.
So as the final three Saturdays approach, this week already being the last for a few teams, measuring what’s left in the tank is essential, first appreciating the toll that a season takes, then also how the bleakness of November across much of the landscape itself can exacerbate that. I cannot imagine a better way to set the mood for this than “November” by Tom Waits, part of the under-appreciated stage musical “The Black Rider”, which he co-wrote with William S. Burroughs, with Robert Wilson as director. Talk about a trio of unique geniuses -
It only believes, in a pile of dead leaves
And a moon that’s the color of bone
As days get shorter, colder and grayer, you can imagine the toll it takes on a battered team that has not been having a very good season. And when you hear this -
November has tied me to an old dead tree
Get word to April to rescue me
it is so easy to think of an embattled head coach, looking ahead to spring practice as a respite from the current bleakness. If you have not made Waits a part of your cultural development, it is not too late.
But there is also a flip side, which can matter across this board – there are several teams that are coming off of byes, and have a chance to be physically invigorated a bit, if the will is still there: Ball State, Boston College, Connecticut, East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi, Penn State, UCF (though in this instance down time might hurt more than help), Western Kentucky and Wisconsin. A good team off of a bye can bring an added step, and you can sort through Southern Mississippi’s domination of Rice as a textbook example of that.
Meanwhile the search for energy is on across the remainder of the nation, looking to fade those that do not have it, and play on those that bring a finishing kick. Like a bunch in Chapel Hill that is getting better by the week…
Item: Here comes North Carolina* (* - though grading the defense is still a problem)
The Tar Heels are getting precious little notice across the Sports Mediaverse for how well they are playing, but in retrospect if Marquise Williams had not thrown those two end-zone interceptions in the opener vs. South Carolina, this might be a 10-0 team looking ahead to the ACC Championship game vs. Clemson as a stepping stone to a Playoff berth. Their energy is impressive, but the difficulty from a power ratings standpoint is sorting through the defense, which is improved under Gene Chizik, yet still sports uncomfortable numbers - in five of the Tar Heel wins that unit has allowed at least 400 yards.
Here is the tricky part – the defense has actually been terrific in the opening stages of the past two games, with a combined halftime lead vs. Duke and Miami F. of 69-10. The only TD allowed came on a 52-yard run. But there were 42 points allowed in the second half of those contests, and of course the requisite piles of first downs and yards that it takes for that to happen. A lot of it was truly garbage time – for Saturday context, Carolina led 45-0 midway through the third quarter vs. Miami, before producing the 59-21 final. Is this a defense intentionally letting up? Perhaps. Might it also been a sign of a lack of depth? There is that issue, and if the Tar Heels win the next two weeks on the road it will become a big part of the handicap vs. Clemson. Might it be possible, if enough other pieces fall into place, that the ACC title game could still be for a Playoff berth? Williams and the offense are ready for that; there are some judgments to be made about the other side of the ball.
Item: Florida State showed some pedigree (beating the spread by 9.5 when you are -4 in turnovers is huge)
Another team in the ACC also deserves some plaudits from Saturday, under the circumstances of both the setting, and the early game flow. Having lost out on any chance to win the conference at Clemson the previous Saturday, the game marked the first time that many players on the Florida State roster were out of the National Championship hunt. It was a common discussion across the Sports Mediaverse, in particular the betting community, and you can read a sampling of that from Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat here – “It’s been four years since FSU was in a game like this.” It would make logical sense that a letdown would be in order, but only by judging the cover of the book, without reading it. Many in the betting markets did that, with the Seminoles available for as low as -7 on game-day, after -9.5 had been common earlier in the week. And when the game started a series of turnovers dug an early 17-7 deficit, and those projecting the Seminoles to be flat would have certainly felt confident. If the team truly was down, it could have easily been time to quit.
And then it turned, and it turned in a way that bears looking at carefully. FSU closed the game on a 27-0 surge, winning 34-17 despite a -4 turnover differential. It is ever so rare for a team to cover that comfortably with such a TO deficit, and it speaks volumes about how much the dominated play, controlling N. C. State by a substantial 6.4 to 3.7 in yards per play. It was outstanding football by a team that may have taken a major step forward in the growth process, and that is what the Clemson loss was about – it was not he end of the line for a veteran group, but rather the beginning for a young one. The Seminole offense is the rarity for this level of not having a single senior starter when Sean Maguire is at QB, which should be the case the rest of the way. Facing adversity the way they did on Saturday, and responding with three quarters of solid football instead of losing their swagger, tells us much about the upside of this group going forward.
Item: Appreciating Tom Herman, again
Earlier this season there was a take on the unexpected offensive struggles of Ohio State, because while the names Meyer, Barrett, Jones, Miller and Elliot were still around, Herman was not. As this season develops, one can’t help but wonder just how much those great offensive designs vs. Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon on the way to the National Championship were his doing, especially when Houston jumped out 9-0 this season under his tutelage, with QB Greg Ward putting up Heisman-type numbers. Then came Saturday night vs. Memphis, and reasons to like Herman even more.
The Cougars were caught in a potentially debilitating moment of seeing big dreams about to turn into much lesser realities, trailing Memphis 34-14 in the fourth quarter, and having to try to mount a comeback without Ward, who left with an ankle injury late in the first half, and also sans back-up Adam Schulz, who was lost earlier in the season. At the helm was Kyle Postma, who was the third-string QB back in fall camp, and had been getting some playing time at WR (six catches, for 145 yards and a TD).
So what did Herman, Postma and the Houston offense do? After some struggles to find a rhythm they patched it together in the fourth quarter, going on three TD marches that covered 166 yards, coming away with a 35-34 win to go to 10-0, and remain on the periphery of perhaps something interesting as the ranks of the unbeaten thin. To be able to make those kinds of adjustments in the heat of battle, especially considering what was at stake, is another feather in the cap of a coach that is moving up the power rating charts. Herman may not have to dial up quite as much this week, however, with Ward probable to return for the game at Connecticut. And for as good as Saturday night was, he was not the best game-day coach in the nation…
Item: Appreciating Bob Davie (he made the right turn in Albuquerque after all)
New Mexico has done something the past two weeks that I can’t find in the annals of college football, winning back-to-back games outright as underdogs of +20 or more. The Lobos were a collective +51 vs. Utah State and Boise State, yet won the scoreboards 45-37, and are now bowl eligible. Think about what that means as Davie coaches his first freshmen recruits as seniors – the three years before he took the job the program had gone 1-11, 1-11 and 1-11. It has been a remarkable turnaround from a guy that gave up his analyst position at ESPN to get back on the field, and choosing to try to turn this downtrodden bunch into something showed how much he really wanted to coach again. It brings the excuse for another link to help you through today’s long read.
When Davie took the New Mexico job I thought it was a tough gamble, perhaps a death knell to his coaching career because it is such a difficult place to win. In doing a media show around that time I said that when offered the job he should not have made the same mistake as Bugs Bunny, and it just fell flat. Dead flat. Which made me wonder if I was surrounded by cultural illiterates, or if I was the troubled one. No answer to that yet, or perhaps there is an answer I am trying to avoid facing, but for now a classic bit of 20th Century American culture -
How is Davie doing it? The recruiting has been a little better, but only a little. Instead what he has done is find a way to instill confidence in the players that he does have, and finding ways to make things happen through some option schemes in which it often looks like they are drawing it up play-by-play as the game goes along. Think about this – a team without game-breakers has eight offensive TDs on plays of 60 yards or more this season, which leads the nation. Over the past two weeks it was an 86-yard TD pass vs. Utah State, and a 74-yard TD run vs. Boise State, that helped turn those tides.
Consider just how much of a gut-out the Boise win was and you can appreciate the grit that Davie’s team plays with play with. The Broncos had the ball for 114 snaps to just 52 for New Mexico, an almost impossible deficit to overcome on the scoreboard. But they gutted it out. Perhaps one of the keys to that is the Lobo bye week coming before the Utah State win, which gave the batteries a chance to be recharged, the carrot of a bowl berth creating motivation during that down time (carrot, Bugs Bunny, get it this time?). And with so many major jobs opening up when this season ends, this also may be the opportunity for Davie to move back to a higher level. He has earned it.
Item: Appreciating Trevone Boykin
It is not known yet if Boykin’s ankle injury will keep him out of TCU’s trip to Oklahoma this week, but it has already led to some fascinating discussion across the back rooms as potential lines are kicked about. A case can be made that he just may be worth low double figures as the adjustment, which is almost unheard-of on the betting boards.
Boykin was injured early in the sluggish 23-17 win by the Horned Frogs, the offense getting 11 drives without him against one of the worst defenses in the nation (the final possession of the first half, and game, are not counted). Those drives produce one touchdown, on a 42-yard pass from Foster Sawyer to Shaun Nixon after the lead had been cut to 13-10 early in the fourth quarter. It was the only completion Sawyer had in his five attempts, after he had replaced the ineffective Bram Kohlhausen. Neither of those back-ups bring anywhere near the talent, savvy or flexibility that Boykin has stamped on the offense, and it has been his ability to make up for TCU injuries across the board that has been such a marvel – with him on the sidelines, the limitations of the other pieces, especially a banged-up OL, were on full display.
When I told someone on Sunday morning that Boykin might be worth 11 points, they thought I was kidding. But that is what it genuinely looks like.
Item: Missouri brought it, and will again
One of the major questions last week was how the circumstances around the Missouri campus would impact the performance of the football team, and it was answered in a most positive way, the Tigers playing their best game of the season in beating Brigham Young by more than the scoreboard can show, with a decisive 434-290 edge in total offense. This team bears watching closely again this week.
One of the issues brought up last Monday was the potential for a positive feeling throughout the program because HC Gary Pinkel chose to stand behind the team, and not the administration that signs his paycheck, and it played out well across the board. Now file away that this will be Pinkel’s last home game in Columbia, with retirement ahead because of health issues. With the team still fighting to be bowl eligible, that should make for a high level of energy across the practice fields this week, and a passionate crowd on Saturday night, some factors that do not necessarily show up in the stat columns.
Meanwhile for another SEC team, the stat columns are telling us plenty…
Item: LSU allowed 551 rushing yards vs. Alabama and Arkansas
There was a major focus here in the pre-LSU/Alabama days of just how young this year’s Tigers were, and how getting rated #2 by The Committee did them no favors (while also showing some of the pratfalls of putting out those ratings far too early). Now more evidence is in, and after back-to-back losses by 14 and 17, it is clear that these Tigers do not truly enter the Playoff picture until next season. In particular pay special heed to those rushing counts on defense – Alabama toted it for 250 and Arkansas for 301, and that is with 41 sack yards included, otherwise it was a collective 592 at 6.7 per carry. That is not something we are accustomed to seeing from a Les Miles defensive front. This group is not ready yet.
Item: The transformation of Mitch Leidner
We are also not accustomed to seeing Leidner throw for 857 yards and four TDs over a three-game cycle, and it makes for some intriguing thought. First note that those three outings just happened to come against Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa, three of the Big 10’s best defenses. He only had seven TD passes in the previous seven games combined, vs. six INT’s (Leidner only threw one across those last three).
But there is another element – those are also the first three games played since Jerry Kill retired. While there was not any significant thought that the offense was going to change under Tracy Claeys, perhaps there is something to see here. Leidner was playing with a little more confidence and daring, perhaps feeling a little less confined in the downfield passing game, and it does bear watching as the Gophers close out with a pair of home games, needing a sweep to become bowl eligible.
Item: The Air Force offense does it by air
There is another offense that bears watching because of the way they are throwing the ball, the formerly land-locked Falcons. Over the past two games it has been an amazing 427 yards on 27 pass attempts for Karson Roberts, with three TD passes and no interceptions. How good is that on the efficiency charts? It breaks the scale. To average 15.8 per attempt over that many throws is fantastic offense.
Here is the key – it is not just a matter of Air Force fooling teams that are geared to stop the run, but in having legitimate weapons. Roberts can make throws that a lot of his predecessors could not, and in 6-4 Jalen Robinette there is a dynamic threat down the field rarely see in Colorado Springs. Utah State simply could not match up to Robinette on Saturday, when his seven receptions went for 210 yards and a TD, and for the season his 18 receptions have gone for 26.8 per catch. It provides plenty of food for thought in what has become a Mountain West showdown at Boise this week, the Falcons 5-1 in conference, while the Broncos are 4-2.
Item: Tulane figures out the option
Option teams are difficult enough to figure out even when they can not throw the ball, the advantage of those running schemes not seen often by the opposition, making for a difficult adjustment in a single week. It can be a particular headache if you are a weak defense limited in manpower anyway, like perhaps Tulane. As such, when the Green Wave got mashed around for 65 points and 439 rushing yards at Georgia Tech in mid-September it did not raise many eyebrows. Yet the eyebrows arched high a little over a month later, when Keenan Reynolds and Navy were held to a shocking 133 yards overland, something a 31-14 Midshipmen scoreboard win might have caused many to overlook.
That performance came up in last week’s post-column thread as Tulane went to West Point to face Army, in what looked like a vulnerable spot for a 2-7 team on a blustery day. Yet once again there was a result that has us needing to look beyond the scoreboard. The Green Wave did pull a 34-31 upset, which may look like a win in spite of the defense, but that scoreboard was another of those book covers that did not represent the contents well. That defense once again handled an option attack with a terrific sense of purpose, allowing 3.9 per rush, and there were 10 tackles for loss. This is something to file away, because Navy now becomes an annual conference opponent, an Army an occasional non-conference one, and if this coaching staff has figured something out vs. those offenses, it can matter.
The defensive catalyst on Saturday was LB Nico Marley, grandson of the reggae legend, who had nine tackles. And Marley’s post-game comments show that there really was a sense of purpose – “We watched a lot of film, and listened to the coaches. They were the masterminds of a great game plan.” It is just one of those little things that can provide edges across the wide spectrum this sport brings.
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