Point Blank – October 23
The Price is Right, in ALCS #6…It is a good time to be playing QB against the Ravens…You probably can’t draft Joel Bouagnon in your fantasy league, but you can sure as hell bet his team this week…
At the first pitch of the David Price/Yordano Ventura Game #2 hookup in the ALCS last Saturday, the consensus was Toronto -151. This morning the Blue Jays can be found for as low as -127. That is quite a shift in market perception, especially since Price clearly out-pitched Ventura in that game. Since neither Eric Strasser, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit” and a member of our starting rotation here until the World Series is over, nor I, believe that a prime driver in the perception – the fact that Price is now 0-7 as a post-season starter, means anywhere what some are trying to make it be, you can probably imagine already what our conclusion will be for this one.
Yes, Price is 0-7 as a starter in the post-season (he pitched in five games in relief in 2008), but take that not just with a grain of salt, but a rather large crystal. In six of the seven games he worked into the seventh inning, and his 1.14 WHIP across those games is almost identical to his 1.13 during the regular season, where he is 104-56/3.09. His playoff K/9 is a touch below the regular season, 7.7 vs. 8.6, but his control has actually been better, a 1.3 BB/9 compared to 2.3 (that 1.3 rates among the best ever, for pitchers with at least 40 post-season innings as a starter). A big part of the 0-7 is that the offense behind him only brought 16 runs of support across those seven games. Price may not have won a playoff game, but he has thrown the ball just fine.
With an 0-6 hanging over his head, and the Blue Jays down 0-1 when he last took the mound, Price threw his best-ever playoff outing, retiring 18 batters in a row in one stretch, before a harmless pop-up to right-field off the bat of Ben Zobrist fell in for what baseball can only call a “hit” because of a defensive miscommunication by the Blue Jays. That opened the door for a most unusual plot twist of an inning in which the Royals did a great job of putting the ball in play, but scored five runs without hitting any rockets. Now a savvy veteran gets a reprieve from that, and Eric likes the setting - I think a road start and elimination game, with all the noise and excitement that brings, will be the perfect cocktail for a really good game from David Price.
But is this same setting a plus for Ventura? From Eric - I don’t think there’s any chance Ventura shuts down the Jays. His work in October has been below par, with 22 base-runners allowed in 12 1/3 innings, and only some very good Royals defense (which will see again tomorrow, unfortunately) keeping his numbers somewhat respectable.
Ventura’s post-season has indeed been uninspiring, a 1.78 WHIP and an 18.9 PPI across three appearances in which there has been some fortune on his side – he managed to skate through with an 80.0 LOB%. Pay particular attention to the way the PPI was accumulated because it was not just one bad game – he has checked in with a 21.0, 18.8 and 18.2, a possible sign of post-season nerves. Now not only does the pressure build, but the Blue Jays are getting a second look, and in particular Troy Tulowitzki has regained his stroke. Eric noted him as one of the keys to the series when he broke it down before Game #1, and after looking out of sync in the Texas series he has gone 7-15 over the last four games, driving in seven runs.
#971 Toronto is the call tonight, and how you build your ticket can come down to the particular value that you find for the Side, and the Run Line. Eric managed to take -1.5 at +127 last night, but the greedy bastard won’t share, so we are all on our own in that regard. The Blue Jays bring value at -135 or less, and because there is a chance for them to post a crooked number early vs. Ventura, the Run Line can still be a fit down to +120. You can also be on the lookout for a -.5 for the First Five if you can get an underdog return on that prop (I have not found anything better than even money so far).
Now let’s go to football…
Friday Fantasy QB
The focus here each Friday is to look down the board a bit, and try to find a matchup that brings the right guy at the right price – money you can save at the key QB spot becomes some valuable funds that you can use elsewhere. This week I will not head quite as far down the list, with Carson Palmer sitting at #7 on the DraftKings board, but it is a prime setting in prime time for him. If you can not get him out of his rhythm in the pocket Palmer can challenge a defense in those intermediate and deep target areas that many teams are vulnerable to, with his 9.0 per attempt trailing only Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton. The Ravens have struggled in just this area all season, allowing opposing passers to a 101.7 rating (#27), and with Kendrick Lewis still not having practiced yet this week, and Lardarius Webb trying to get back up to speed after missing last Sunday’s loss, this is not the setting for that unit to turn things around. It is likely that in consecutive weeks they may have allowed both Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick to have the best game they are going to have this season, and Palmer and his receivers should shine in this matchup.
In the Sights…
This one will probably not come as a surprise to those of you that have been following along all season, after isolating several times in the Monday NCAA review column the difficulties that Eastern Michigan has had defending the run this season, and also using Akron in this spot on the page a couple of weeks ago to exploit that flaw in an easy point spread cover. Now this is one of the toughest settings of the season for that Eagle defense, and that puts #316 Northern Illinois (time change to 3:30 Eastern) into play. You should not have to lay more than -28, and -27.5 is rather easy to find this morning.
With a lack of size, talent and depth, there just is not much that EMU can do up front – they are allowing 342.9 rushing yards per game, 30.6 more than any other team, at a 6.8 per carry clip that is naturally also dead last. A problem with having that weakness is that it becomes worse instead of better, as players physically and mentally wear down, the latter an issue after five straight losses in double figures. Exacerbating matters is that Chris Creighton and his team somehow drew a schedule this season that does not bring a bye until November 21, which means no chance for those tired bodies to get a respite. That is why I think this one could get ugly.
The Eagles are not only playing for the eighth straight week, but there is a quick turnaround before a home game with Western Michigan on Thursday. And guess what they get to go up against on Saturday? A team that features a power ground game, with all five UNI starters in the OL, and nine of 10 on the two-deep, weighing more than 300 pounds, and that group is opening the door for physical runner Joel Bouagnon, who at 6-2/226 will be a major factor over the second half of the season. Let’s let Huskies RB coach Kelton Copeland set the stage – “Everybody who watches Huskie football knows we’re going to run the ball. That’s what we do and how we win games. Your tailback is going to take the load of that run game. He’s (Bouagnon) a guy, whether it’s three yards and a cloud or dust, or boom, knock off a big one for 40, 50, 60 yards, he’s able to do both.”
Bouagnon is #3 in the nation in TDs, behind only Houston’s Greg Ward and LSU’s Leonard Fournette, and he has a chance for a monster game against this battered and confidence-shy defense. With Eastern unlikely to put up much fight from behind in the second half, saving something for what is a much bigger game for the program on Thursday, expect a lot of punishing drives by that UNI ground game, and for most of them to not stop until they reach the goal line.
In the Sights – Market Bonus…
There has been a substantial surge in an unlikely place this week, with USC being taken all the way from -3 to -6.5 this evening, and that sets up terrific value to #345 Utah. This game got a lot of media attention this week because of the rare setting – a team rated in the AP Top Five as an underdog to an un-ranked opponent, and as such a narrative has been created – “Utah is an over-rated team that is ready to have the clock strike midnight.” But there are major flaws in that thinking – one that some of it was already in making the Trojans the favorite to begin with, but the second that while the Utes are over-rated in regards to power teams from other conferences, the Pac 12 context here is extremely important.
Utah is not an upstart. The Utes beat the Trojans in Salt Lake City last year, so there is no intimidation factor, and in terms of handling a setting like this, they have won outright as underdogs at Stanford, Oregon and UCLA the past two seasons, and in a non-conference trip last year won as an underdog as Michigan as well. You can even throw in an overtime loss at Arizona State as an example of their road-worthiness. They are the far better defensive team, and much more fundamentally sound, and are worth stepping in with against that market surge.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)