Point Blank – August 13
Will the Saints new faces on Defense come together (Camp Questions #9)?...The Yankees/Indians series has only been close on the scoreboard…It is perfectly fine some nights, to be a Glutton in Las Vegas…
It is not just about reading practice reports for the NFL anymore, now it is time to watch the games play out, even if there may not be all that much to absorb this particular week, with many of the guys getting big minutes not on their way to September rosters. We may be able to learn a little from watching the Saints tonight, however, so let’s get to it.
There were multiple takes in NFL columns here last season about the misperceptions by the sports mediaverse and the betting markets of Rob Ryan, a guy who continues to find employment as a DC on Sunday’s despite not being very good at it. At a few of his stops the team he was coaching actually regressed, instead of making progress, the longer they were in his system, and that has been the case so far with New Orleans – using the Football Outsiders best defensive charts, the Saints fell from #9 in their first season under his tutelage to #28 last year, neither effective vs. the run (#32) or the pass (#27).
Now comes one of Ryan’s biggest challenges, a season in which that defense reads much more like what is being said about NCAA teams around this time – the current depth chart lists six returning starters, and one of them, LB David Hawthorne, is on the verge of losing his position to rookie Stephone Anthony. Not only could more than half of the starters be new when the regular season begins, but the base has also shifted, from a 3-4 to a 4-3, and breaking both new faces and a new system is a difficult process, especially for a unit lacking confidence off of that dismal 2014.
OK, there is one perspective to set right off the bat – this unit could be better by default, because it would be difficult to be much worse than they were last year. The secondary has absolutely upgraded by adding Jairus Byrd and Brandon Browner. But how will the front seven mesh, not only with new faces, but in those new alignments? Might both Anthony and fellow rookie Hau’oli Kikaha be starting at LB? There is a lot of work to be done, and history has not shown that Ryan is necessarily the guy to maximize the potential on hand. While there will be the usual sloppiness and deep rotation tonight, I will pay particular focus to Sean Payton the remainder of the pre-season – this may well be a case in which a team wants the defensive starting unit to play more than usual, because there is no much that needs to be accomplished.
In the Sights…
It would be easy to resort to the old phrase of “two teams heading in opposite directions” in previewing Yankees/Indians tonight, and in this instance it is indeed true. But the price does not show it, and perhaps it is that a series that has appeared to be competitive, Cleveland gutting out a pair of tense one-run wins, has actually been mostly a blowout on the field – the Tribe has outhit New York 27-12, and that is despite getting five fewer outs to work with. I don’t believe the Nathan Eovaldi/Trevor Bauer hookup changes the momentum, and #966 Cleveland First Half brings the best path to take advantage.
Eovaldi has had a rather blessed ride on his way to going 11-2 in his first season with the Yankees, posting an ERA that is actually above his career average (4.15 vs. 4.09), and only slightly better at FIP (3.63 vs. a career 3.68). Perhaps baseball owed him this after the 6-14 he suffered with the Marlins last year. The Yankees are also 3-6 in the starts in which he did not get a decision, and there is nothing special about his form – four of the last five starts have produced a PPI of 17.5 or higher. Playoff pressure is something entirely new to him, and there is a genuine question as to whether he has the moxie to be a “stopper” in a setting like this one.
So why First Half instead of Full Game? Cleveland will not have closer Cody Allen available this evening, having worked each of the first two games of the series, including 29 pitches over 1 ½ innings last night. So I will go with Bauer over Eovaldi early, and a resurgent Indian team that is only 5.5 games out in the Wild Card race should bring the energy to continue their momentum.
Vegas…
Last night steady forum contributor Jake Dittler was finally awarded his prize for winning the “When will Aroldis Chapman give up his first run” contest, an evening of great food and baseball conversation at Glutton (http://www.gluttonlv.com). Glutton is the kind of place Las Vegas has badly needed, a neighborhood restaurant with a high level of integrity, a few blocks from the shadows of the downtown casinos, with Bradley Manchester having the confidence to do things his way. The vibe would lead you to think that you might be in Portland or Seattle.
Naturally baseball was much of the focus, including Jake’s own career, one that maxed out at the AAA level because of Tommy John surgery, which leaves a permanent scar on the arm, but a lot of great memories. As an athlete he was able to step up to the plate for the Glutton burger, which I will tackle on another night, but it was their flawlessly executed Ora King Salmon for me, helping to save room for some of the best Peach Cobbler I have ever had (wood roasted peaches, bourbon butterscotch, pecan streusel, ginger & ricotta ice cream). The Manchester touch is to not just put complex and balanced flavors on a plate, but to also make sure his guests get fed. There is something to be said for that.
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