Point Blank – May 16
A “Moment of Truth”, too late, for the Wizards; Stephen Curry really can score from just about anywhere (Playoff Passages #27)…A chance to cash early, in KC…
A shot that nearly Pierce’d the heart of Atlanta was a fraction of a second too late to get recorded in the NBA annals, and the Hawks became the first team to qualify for the conference finals. Meanwhile out west the Golden State countdown is eight wins to a championship, and the Over/Under on Warrior losses the rest of the way may only be in the range of about 3.5.
Atlanta 94 Washington 91
Like so many other Hawk playoff games, in what has become a rather consistent pattern, they had their moments. This time it was a 15-point lead midway through the third quarter, and the unselfish play continued, with three different players scoring at least 20 points. But once again they could not sustain for the 48 minutes that will be required going forward to be a champion, and their advancement required help, this time Washington missing three FTs that were taken over the final 3:19 with the Wizards in the lead. And then, of course, the classic ending, time expiring a fraction of a second before Paul Pierce launched that final shot.
Consider these floor game elements – Washington had eight more rebounds, and four fewer turnovers, leading to nine more field goal attempts, and six more tries at the free throw line. That was a lot for Atlanta to overcome, and as was the case vs. Brooklyn, the path to victory was only partially the merits of the Hawks, the rest being the limitations of the competition. That changes now, as the going gets much tougher.
Mike Budeonholzer did get one thing correct on Friday night – at crunch time Dennis Schroder was mostly a cheerleader, with his -11 over 22:10 (3-12 shooting) part of the reason why the big lead in the third quarter slipped away. Instead it was Jeff Teague back where he belonged, and it was Teague’s ability to create easy opportunities for DeMarre Carroll at 0:57 and 0:30 that put the Hawks in position to win. Yet once again the end-game defense broke down, having had an opportunity to commit a foul before the ball got to Pierce, but failing to do so.
Atlanta gives the appearance of a promising troupe of understudies that have been successfully touring smaller theatres around the country, and have now been given the opportunity to open on Broadway. But where are the lead actors? That will be a big part of the thought processes as the games vs. Cleveland enter the handicapping consciousness. The Hawks have not been effective in either their offensive or defensive end-games in these playoffs, and there does now become an issue of physical fatigue, in addition to having the pressure of those bright lights.
Case in point - is Kyle Korver wearing down? His 449 three-point attempts during the regular season were the second most of his career, behind a 558 all the way back in the 2004-05 season. He only had 16 playoff starts in his career entering this post-season; having made 12 in a row now look at how far his game has fallen – just 1-12 from three-point range over the final two games, with twice as many turnovers (six) as assists (three), and that does not count his late-game travel on Wednesday night, which failed to draw a whistle. Now he runs into the defense of Iman Shumpert. Which is not ideal for busting through a shooting slump. The Hawks will need to show more than they have to get past the Cavaliers; the question now becomes one of whether or not they have that upside.
Golden State 108 Memphis 95
Meanwhile Golden State has plenty of capacity; including the abilities for things like the ridiculous shot Stephen Curry threw in before the third quarter buzzer sounded last night, effectively ending the series 12 minutes before it was official. The Grizzlies put up a more than respectable fight, but this time Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol did not convert well (only 12-37), and once again the gap beyond the arc was too much to make up for in any other basketball area – over the last three games the Warriors out-scored them by 93 points from long range.
Curry’s motor continues to be remarkable. While some questioned, perhaps properly, whether fatigue might be an issue for him after that long ride to the regular-season MVP award, his arc has been much different than Korver’s. After those back-to-back Memphis wins he stepped up to an 18-35 from three-point range over the last three games of the series, with 21 rebounds, 20 assists and eight steals. And now he gets the benefit of a couple of days off that his Rocket or Clipper counterparts will not have.
While the other Golden State starters have established themselves pretty well in the eyes of the marketplace, pay attention to the way that Andre Iguodala’s game is stepping up off the bench. He has accepted the role of a non-starter because he wants to win a ring, and his effectiveness could really matter in the next round, when he can take on the task of guarding James Harden or Chris Paul. Over the past two games the Warriors have been a +33 in the 54:55 he has played, but note that beyond his defense there is also a blending into the offensive flow, with 25 points, 10 assists and only one turnover through that span. And in addition to his ability to guard a Harden or a Paul, just imagine the mismatch of his abilities against Austin Rivers or Jamal Crawford, should Los Angeles be the matchup.
In the Sights…
On a warm and humid night in Kansas City, with a bit of a hitters wind to left field, there is the prospect of a left-hander having some difficulties. And when the lefties involved are already struggling, that opens the door for some early-game value, in this case #922 KC First Half Over fitting on several fronts.
One of the first columns of this MLB season dealt with the decline of C. C. Sabathia since the 2013 All Star break, and his 3-4/5.28 of 2014 was the precursor to his current 1-5/5.20. It is a case of a guy that will be 35 in two months, and with nearly 3000 Major League innings under his elongated belt, being nowhere near his past levels. The 2015 SwS% is 8.3, far off of his career 10.7, and his form is unlikely to turn against a Royals offense that is #2 in the Majors in OPS vs. left-handers at .823, trailing only Toronto.
But for as much as Sabathia has struggled, he has been matched by Danny Duffy, who has opened with a 5.67 ERA that would be his career-worst, and a 4.23 FIP that would be the worst since his rookie campaign in 2011. The markets are struggling to catch down to him, that 2.53 ERA of 2014 having influence but being nowhere near his true abilities (FIP read it as 3.83), with a .239 BABIP that was only bettered by the .238’s of Johnny Cueto and Chris Young. There is a difference, however – those two veterans have particular styles that enhance their abilities in that category. Duffy does not, which means a regression was going to be inevitable, and his lack of command has led to an ugly 18.1 PPI through the first seven starts.
Here is where the markets are getting this one wrong. You can play Over 4 -120 for the First Five despite the struggles of the two starters, because these bullpens have been so damn good that they have to impact the full game line. I think the weighting of First half/Full Game is a bit off in this one, and that creates the edge.
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