Point Blank – October 21
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #7
The NFL Week that Was, and some key items you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: The Detroit defense makes a stand
It was not a surprise that the Detroit offense looked like it was running through gravel without Calvin Johnson on Sunday; with 3:52 to play they were trailing 23-10, and had been held to 268 yards. Facing a third-and-14 at their own 27-yard line, another incomplete pass would likely have cemented those numbers as the final game stats, with the Saints only needing to run out the clock. But then a little luck came into play, and if luck is indeed “the residue of design” (Branch Rickey), it was the design of that Lion defense that made it all possible.
The luck came when Golden Tate caught a short pass from Matt Stafford, and was presented with enough bad pursuit angles by the Saints to make it possible to race 73 yards for a TD. And then a defense that had kept the game close enough for that TD to make it 23-17, took over. They got the ball back to the offense at the New Orleans 14-yard line, and with the aid of a pass interference penalty, it became 24-23. A valuable win went into the standings.
The best way to break this down is to sort through the Drew Brees fourth quarter. His first pass attempt of the stanza was a short toss to Mark Ingram out of the backfield, which went for 10 yards, with 14:34 remaining. His next completion came at 1:09, to Tavares Cadet, again out of the backfield. In between he threw 10 passes, with only one of them being caught, that by Detroit safety Glover Quin. Quin’s interception set up the field position for the Lions to get their game-winning TD.
The last 13 pass attempts by Brees gained all of seven yards. That is defense with a capital “D”, but it was not the first time it has been on display – as we all continue to marvel at the numbers that Aaron Rodgers is putting up, remember back to Week #3 in Detroit, when the Packers failed to score over the final three quarters of a 19-7 defeat. For a full-season perspective, let’s look at the Passer Rating the Lions have allowed, compared to how those same QBs have done in all other games:
vs. Detroit: 76.4
vs. Others: 95.8
That is substantial, and it is what happens when big-time talent sets the tone. Ndamukong Suh is #2 in the NFL in the Sacks/Hits/Hurries of opposing QBs with 23, having been in the lead prior to J. J. Watt going to the top on Monday night. Tied for #3 is Nick Fairley. That is quite a combination to have coming out of the same DL. Now there is one more game before the bye, and the return of Johnson, against an Atlanta OL that is currently the league’s worst. That particular game-inside-the-game matchup is one that is worthy of advanced scrutiny.
Item: Games are too long for the Falcon OL
So let’s talk a little more Detroit/Atlanta right now. The Falcon season started with a lot of promise, but some of it has turned out to be misleading. Beating New Orleans in OT was big for the psyche, but as the week’s pass the meaning has faded. That explosion vs. Tampa Bay in front of the national cameras had more to do with Buccaneer weaknesses (remember “When Cover 2, Covers None” from last week), than Atlanta abilities. And there was also a measuring stick that began that night which carried forward into Sunday – while Mike Smith showed class in backing off in the fourth quarter vs. the Bucs, little did he know that his offense would not score another point in the final stanza for over a month. When the Flacons did muster a drive to get on the board vs. the Ravens, they were already down 20-0. Since the beginning of that fourth quarter vs. Tampa Bay, Atlanta has been out-scored 58-7 in the final period.
Matt Ryan is a shelf-just-below-the-top QB. Julio Jones and Roddy White are among the better WR tandems in the sport, and Devin Hester (18 catches at 14.6) is a quality third option. But you have to have at least a modicum of success from the OL to make an offense go, and a cluster of injuries has simply gutted that group. Not only are there talent and chemistry issues to begin the games, but by the latter stages the lack of depth has seen this group consistently wear down. It was one thing to back off vs. Tampa Bay, but to be shutout in the fourth by the Vikings, Giants and Bears over three weeks was hardly a murderer’s row of elite defenses.
The bad news is that it may get worse. Already having lost Sam Baker, Mike Johnson, Joe Hawley and Lamar Holmes, while Jake Matthews has played below his usual standard because of an ankle injury (the Pro Football Focus grades were frightening from Sunday), C Peter Konz was injured vs. the Ravens, and has been declared out for the season. So they head to London with what will be their fifth different starting OL group, and a shortened week because of the travel certainly does not help matters, especially with undrafted rookie Josh Stone starting at C. The Falcons have nearly given up on running the ball, with only 29 attempts the last two games, while Ryan was sacked nine times in that span. OL injuries may not bring sizzle to the betting markets, but when they cluster like this it absolutely matters.
Item: Matt Forte got two carries in the first half vs. Miami
Well, this is going to be fun, especially with an active Chicago media on board that will not miss a sound bite. But before going forward, it is time to first take a step back, with the set-up for this one coming last Tuesday – “Matt Forte got 27 touches” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1062234.aspx). That take set the stage for how the Chicago win vs. the Falcons could easily be misinterpreted – Jay Cutler was given the bulk of the credit, having played a turnover-free game, but so much of that was predicated by slowing the pace down, making Forte a bigger factor in the offense, and having the semblance of a concept. And then came Sunday.
A key to beating Miami is to establish the run, limiting the Dolphin pass rush and creating more favorable third-down settings. So after holding the Miami offense to a three-and-out to begin the game, naturally the Bears passed three times on their first possession, before punting on the fourth play. That is who they have been, and despite the smattering of intelligent design at Atlanta, perhaps who they still are. When they got the ball back they were down 7-0. But at least they gave Forte a carry from scrimmage, and a pass out of the backfield, before punting on the second drive.
Forte was to get one other carry the remainder of the half, the Bears fell behind 14-0, and the game plan, if there actually was one, was out the window. They ran the ball on only 14 of 51 snaps, turning it over three times. So where did it go wrong? The seeds were actually planted before the game even started, when Trestman offered the following concerning Cutler’s clean game at Atlanta - ‘‘I think he’s making better decisions. We’re optimistic. But we’ve got work to do, and it’s a week-to-week process. It all starts over every week.’’ That was a back-handed compliment, but as it turns out, an accurate one.
Now who takes the blame for the lack of a running game? Following Sunday’s loss, Trestman offered “We had some runs called…” before adding that the Miami defense changed into “certain fronts that forced us to get out” of those runs. Did Cutler back his coach up on that? No - “We had two runs called ... it’s not like we had 12 called.” This will be fascinating to follow during the week, because a team badly needing leadership from both the HC and the QB may not be getting the necessary amount from either. And it can not be good for that team to wake up on Tuesday morning and see “Trestman cuts down on Cutler’s decision-making: Are big changes coming?” from the Chicago Sun-Times.
The image of Trestman and Cutler as leaders, on a week when they face Belichick/Brady, makes for a fascinating contrast.
Item: Not the “Real McCoy”
No, do not even pretend, regardless of whether you are a serious handicapper, a Fantasy Football speculator, or just a Washington fan. Yes, that 11-12-128 passing line is tantalizing, and there was what looks like a home run TD pass on paper to Pierre Garcon that brought the Redskins some badly needed momentum in that rally to beat Tennessee. But Colt McCoy can only be an affirmative answer to questions that an NFL franchise does not want to ask. He doesn’t possess the arm strength to succeed at this level long-term, and if anything what looked like a flawless statistical performance actually highlighted his very issues.
Yes, that first pass to Garcon happened. But it was just a simple short curl route in the flat that turned into a 70-yard TD. The next 11 McCoy passes only generated 58 yards, which is bad enough on the surface, but the fact that 10 of them were completions is something that you can’t live with in this league. Where does a 5.8 per completion put him? Of the 34 QBs that have thrown enough passes to qualify, no one is below 10.1. What happened after the pass to Garcon broke big? This happened -
Nine plays, 37 total yards, Punt
Five plays, 15 yards, Field Goal
Three plays, (-6) yards, Punt
10 plays, 49 yards, Field Goal
That is 27 snaps for 95 yards, a meager 3.5 yards per play, against a defense that is absolutely nothing special. The two biggest chunks of yardage on the final scoring drive that won the game were a 22-yard pass interference penalty, and a 12-yard run by Roy Helu. About the only genuine positive that can be said about McCoy through that span is that he did not turn the ball over. Now it comes down to a matter of whether Robert Griffin can be healthy enough to return to the starting QB spot for Monday’s trip to Dallas. If not, it will be McCoy’s turn, yet while the prospects of him being successful long-term are dim, a start on Monday night might not be as dire as the early lines are making it appear.
Item: The Cowboys win and cover again, but…
Dallas has provided a fascinating storyline in recent weeks. The Cowboys have played as well as any team in the league, and that emerging OL, with the ground game that group has unlocked, has been a topic here on multiple occasions already. Yet the market trading has been bizarre – there has been anti-Dallas money for several Sunday’s in a row, and there were even a few scattered -4.5’s out there against the Giants this past week. Not much respect for a team on a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS ride. But here comes the usual twist – now that enough notice has been taken for the early activity vs. Washington next Monday to have some places as high as -9.5, it may be time to shift gears a bit. The Cowboys still have major issues on defense, and the needle on the value meter can’t swing too far before those weaknesses can be exploited.
The Giants came to Texas without their two most explosive compliments to Eli Manning, RB Rashad Jennings and WR Victor Cruz. Yet they moved the ball at a 6.0 yards per play clip, and in 33 drop-backs Manning did not have an interception or a sack. The best Dallas defense was an offense that managed the pace, which limited the Giants to 59 snaps. And that has been the key most of the season, with notions of major improvements on that side of the ball a potential illusion.
The Cowboys are allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt. Only the Browns and Panthers have been worse. The Cowboys have only managed seven sacks on 236 drop-backs by opposing QBs. Only the Rams have a worse success rate. Get the picture? There has been a real lack of play-making coming from the defensive front, and a 16-game season is a long time to have to carry that weakness through other facets of play. The flaws have not come to the forefront, because the Dallas ground game has helped the offense to be on the field for 64 more plays than the defense has had to face, but they need to be incorporated into your processes. Over this past cycle the Cowboys have been a great “buy”, it may not be long before it is time to “sell”.
Item: Jacksonville, and the Proper Posluszny Perspectives
A couple of keys to file away here. One is that Paul Posluszny had rarely been given his due as one of the NFL’s premier MLBs, having led the league in tackles since 2008, and rating #3 this season. You don't get much notice from the Sports Mediaverse playing for a bad team in a small market. But he won’t take the field again this season, because of a torn pectoral muscle. Which takes us to the second key – not only was there the lack of recognition as to how good Posluszny was, but how many had caught on to the recent improvements of the Jaguar defense? There is a story there that now faces a plot twist, so it is worth delving into.
Time will tell if Gus Bradley has what it takes to be a successful NFL HC, although Jacksonville is currently a tough place for a proper measurement. But there is no disputing Bradley’s defensive acumen, some of which could be seen in his debut season, when an 0-8 opening turned into a respectable 4-4 over the second half of the campaign. Now is an appropriate time to begin measuring the progress that unit has been making this season, especially as we also have to factor the loss of Posluszny for the duration, and DE Andre Branch for at least six games.
The opening salvo was dismal, but partially schedule-related. The showing at Washington was hideous, but the Eagle, Colt and Charger offenses provided challenges that the Jaguars were not ready for, with three new DL being incorporated into the mix, plus rookie LB Telvin Smith. Those pieces pieces were slowly being fitted through those failures, however, and they came together to only allow two offensive TDs over the last three games. Yes, facing Charlie Whitehurst in one of them was a break, but do not let that keep you from seeing a progression that I believe was real.
Cleveland entered Sunday as the #2 offense on the Football Outsiders charts. The Browns will not be that good, of course, but in opening 3-2 they were averaging 146.4 yards per game overland, at 4.4 per carry, and Brian Hoyer had a 99.5 Passer Rating. On Sunday those numbers were 69, 2.3 and 46.3. Here is how Mike Pettine summed it up - “This is one of the better defensive fronts in all of football. When we ran the ball, they clearly out-executed us.”
That quote was used because of the way Pettine referred to execution, which shows some aspects of what a Bradley/Bob Babich defense can be about. So let’s take it to the other side of the field and Jaguar DT Sen’Derrick Marks, who is on his way to a Pro Bowl season - “Everybody played the game above the neck. The game is so precise. It’s an inch game. You’ve got to play above the neck and that’s what happened today.” And it also mattered that Smith’s athleticism is a great fit to the mix, getting an interception and forcing a Hoyer fumble on Sunday.
Now those injuries jumble the picture, but it is still important to recognize what had been happening, because it will be challenging for the marketplace to accept. And Bradley might be able to sort through those injuries and still come up with a plan. Don’t sleep on this bunch, especially if a healthy Denard Robinson may be able to offer the run balance the offense needed to take pressure off of Blake Bortles, which can mean a little ball control that also helps the defense through their transitions as well.
Vegas…
Another Monday meant another lunch out with the Review-Journal NFL section, a terrific way to survey the Sunday action via a different platform. Sometimes things really can look different on paper than on a screen. This time the lunch direction was set by a reader, and it brought a chance to revisit another of those hidden local gems.
On Anthony Bourdain’s “Parts Unkown” on CNN Sunday night he visited the city of Hue, in the central highlands of Vietnam, and when he had a bowl of Bun Bo Hue, the classic soup from the region, he proclaimed it the “greatest soup in the world”. That is not hyperbole from Bourdain, he has traveled enough to have a good judgment on the subject, and he also understands it within the context of various cultures – for many soup is a way of using up leftover ingredients, or cheap filler, as a way of sustenance. Many of them are still brilliant. But Bun Bo Hue (pronounce it “Bun Bo-Way”) is a complex adventure, a soup that aspires to be a work of art. So when someone that had watched Sunday’s broadcast asked about prospects of a good bowl in Las Vegas, it made the Monday decision easy.
Bun Bo Hue can be found on several Vietnamese menus across the valley, but is generally average at best, and often below. The problem is that there is not enough demand at some restaurants to make the broth the proper way, so it is occasionally some Pho stock as the base, dressed up a little. And there is a reason for the lack of demand from the North American audience – a proper bowl that includes pork leg with skin on, shin of beef on the bone, with some tendon, and cakes of pork blood, can challenge the sensibilities of that palate. But those components help to create a dynamic flavor profile, accented with a complex set of spices. If you want a bowl of the real thing you are in luck, and can head to Pho Bosa (3355 Spring Mountain Road, Polaris is the cross street). You will get a bowl more than big enough to get through the entire box score page, and tell Vanessa how much heat you are comfortable with (in truth, the spicier the better, which helps to cut through the richness of the various proteins). There is an amazing amount of flavor for the price point, and showcases why Bun Bo Hue deserves such a reputation.