Point Blank – October 20
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #8
The NCAA Week that Was, and some key items you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: No one was better than TCU this weekend
It would have been easy for TCU to come out flat against Oklahoma State on Saturday, off of back-to-back games vs. then Top 10 Oklahoma and Baylor that went to the final possession. And given the way the Horned Frogs fell at Waco, which we went through in full detail here last week, a flat effort would have been excused. But not only did they bounce back with a resiliency, exploding to a big early advantage vs. the Cowboys on TD passes of 84 and 77 yards from Trevone Boykin to Josh Doctson, they kept going for the jugular. What they did was remarkably good, so much so that most of the fourth quarter was played under football’s version of a “caution flag”. All those concerns about depth and fortitude off of that late collapse vs. Baylor? Resolved, and we have a definite contender for a Playoff spot. Will we ever see a Mike Gundy team out-gained by 418 yards again?
The scoreboard will only show a 14-0 TCU advantage after intermission, but it could have gone far beyond that. On their two opening drives of the second half the Horned Frogs marched 79 and 88 yards for TDs, and total offense for the third quarter was 191-33. And that was that; what was expected to have been a competitive game between two good programs (Oklahoma State came in #15 in the AP poll) was declared over by the coaches. After what nearly became the third consecutive long TD drive by TCU was stopped on a fourth-and-1 at the Cowboy four-yard line, Gundy and Gary Patterson figuratively shook hands, with only 25 offensive snaps over the final 12:31. State had two first downs after intermission, with Daxx Garman going 0-6 in the air.
Just a week after that late failure at Baylor had seemingly ruined their dreams, the Horned Frogs now have a path ahead that can lead to the Final Four – they will be favored in all six remaining games, and the toughest challenge vs. Kansas State comes at home. And along those lines…
Item: Should Boykin also get at least a little Heisman love?
Perhaps no player in the nation has improved as much this season as Boykin. Someone that was not even guaranteed the starting QB job was naturally off of the radar screens in terms of the Heisman Trophy and other honors (you would have to wager on “Field” at some places to have action on him), but in this past three-week showdown cycle, vs. Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State, he has been special. Boykin threw for 1,015 yards and six TDs across those games, with only two INTs in 124 attempts, while also running for 163 yards. As mentioned above, there could have easily been more production on Saturday, but he did not take the field on the last three possessions. Can the Sports Mediaverse find him in time to get in the running for the Heisman? Unlikely, but with some soft defenses ahead (Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State), a small investment might not be a bad idea, if you can find a proper price, since a little out of pocket could pay a lot.
Item: Meanwhile, Baylor
Art Briles and his Bears were the flip side of that epic fourth quarter vs. TCU in Waco, a game that put them squarely in the Playoff hunt. It was just going to come down to taking care of business at West Virginia and at home vs. Kansas, before heading to that showdown at Oklahoma. And they got the boost of a +3 turnover advantage in Morgantown on Saturday, which ordinarily would mean light’s out – run favorites of -8 with a +3 in that category through the data-bases and see how rarely they fail to cover the spread, much less lose the game outright. But when a team with that advantage loses the scoreboard by 14 points, it requires a serious post-mortem. For Baylor, it was not pretty.
The Bears struggled to run the ball, and it was not one of those fluky measurements impaired by QB sacks – Shock Linwood only managed 69 yards on 21 carries, a 3.3 clip that was two full yards below his average in all other games. Bryce Petty completed less than 50 percent of his passes, the second straight road game that has happened, and that was despite the Mountaineers being without starting CBs Terrell Chestnut and Daryl Worley because of injuries. But most alarming was the lack of technique and composure – Baylor nearly had as many penalty yards (215) as passing yards (223). Naturally, that makes winning difficult. Eight of those penalties were for pass interference, six on the defense.
This was the season that the Bears were hoping to show that they were more than just that spread offense, and instead a full team. But the defense has allowed 99 points the past two weeks, with only one INT vs. 668 passing yards, and those penalty counts on Saturday show that there is still much attention to detail that is missing, before they move to true elite status. The path to 11-1 can still be navigated, but even if that happens, one of the weakest non-conference schedules for any Playoff contender will become part of the discussion, as will Saturday’s losing margin.
Item: Texas A&M quit in Tuscaloosa
The Aggies do not return to the board until next week, but this topic is timely now, since someone could easily challenge the assertion of TCU’s dominance of Oklahoma State being the weekend's best showing, by pointing out the Alabama performance vs. Texas A&M. But that one comes with an *, and it matters – rarely have I ever seen a good team literally give up so early on the field.
I cringe at seeing how often the word “quit” is used across the Sports Mediaverse, comparable to the usage of “choke”, as a quick short-cut of analysis by a writer that does not choose to dig more deeply, in order to tell a story more accurately. Those concepts are too easy to fall back on. But an A&M team that already showed plenty of causes for concern going in, as pointed out in last Monday’s column, brought nothing vs. Alabama (at TCU, Oklahoma State was at least fighting). The Aggies lacked a sense of purpose in terms of a game plan, and did not show an appreciable sense of pride to compete as things got away. It was already 45-0 for the Crimson Tide at halftime, and one can only wonder how bad things might have been had Nick Saban not backed off in the third quarter. Saban now joins Hugh Freeze and Dan Mullen as SEC coaches that went out of their way to not embarrass the Aggies, with those last three games sitting at 94-10 at halftime. Let that sink in – a team that was ranked as high as #6 in the nation in early October has now been out-scored by an average of 28 points per game in the first half alone in three outings this month.
After being stopped at the four-yard line on the opening drive, settling for a short FG, Alabama reeled off seven straight TD drives. Then the starting offense took the rest of the game off. There was some awfully good football played by the Crimson Tide, but it gets clouded by just how little resistance A&M put up. The Aggies now get a week off to lick their wounds before hosting lower-echelon UL-Monroe, but this may be one of the most important weeks of Kevin Sumlin’s coaching career. His football dynamics have been built around speed and aggressiveness, but to win in the SEC also means hitting, an absolute weakness, particularly for a defense that has tackled abysmally. As mentioned last week, DC Mark Snyder has a lot to prove in terms of tactics. But no matter what the designs are some of it goes to heart - playing poorly can be corrected; not competing at all raises deeper questions.
Item: Big 10 games are too long for Northwestern
If you noticed a little more exuberance than usual from Pat Fitzgerald when Northwestern won its big 10 opener 29-6 at Penn State, it may have been because of the way the game closed out, a 15-0 control of the fourth quarter. That might not set off shock waves in a lot of places, but it would in Evanston, and to some in the betting markets – a long run of Wildcat failures in conference play over the final stanza of games had become commonplace. The pattern had been one of frustration for Fitzgerald because it is not easy to fix - he brings players to a high-level academic institution that show intelligence and grit, but just not the athleticism, or the depth, to compete in a physical conference. At least not for the full 60 minutes.
So was the Penn State game a turning point, or an aberration? The latter, as it turns out. While the Wildcats did hang on to a big early lead to beat Wisconsin, a tie game in the fourth quarter vs. Minnesota became a defeat, and after entering the final stanza down only 21-17 vs. Nebraska on Saturday night, they were pushed around 17-0 the rest of the way. It has been a negative run of 34-10 over the final period of those Big 10 games since the Penn State win, and continues a most ominous legacy – the current fifth-year seniors have been out-scored 346-183 in the fourth quarter, plus overtime, in conference play. There may be no way to correct that – once again Fitzgerald and his staff are doing a good job of having their team compete into the second half with a chance to win. But the players can not get bigger or stronger, or grow in number, which runs into a wall in this league. The problem going forward may be how the legacy of failure at crunch time weighs on this group – only six times in 36 Big 10 games have they won the scoreboard in the final stanza.
This has been a gravy train for those in the know in the betting markets, but it is also a concept that will not be hurt by a little publicity, since the oddsmakers rarely deviate from formula, and have not been making this particular tweak a prime consideration at halftime. In terms of your own handicapping the adjustments are easy to make – if you like the Wildcats you may find the First Half pointspread to bring better value than the full game, while those that play halftimes, or get involved in In-Running wagering, can also make this issue a part of the thought processes as well.
Item: Missouri was up 42-0 with 97 yards of offense…
…and went on to beat Florida 42-13 with only seven first downs and 119 yards. That makes the Tigers a good lab experiment to dissect off of recent topics on processing convoluted results, particularly “Of Turnovers, and ‘Pandora’s Box Scores’” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1058201.aspx). Because this time Mizzou does not get advanced with a passing grade. Yes, there were TDs on kickoff, punt, fumble and interception returns that kept the offense from getting the ball. But when the Tigers did have it, it was an atrocious evening.
Last Monday there was a discussion about the struggles of that Missouri offense, noting how they were sitting on seven points midway through the fourth quarter vs. a mediocre South Carolina defense, and then got humbled at home vs. Georgia – zero points, 10 first downs and 147 yards. Absolutely nothing was solved vs. Florida. Gaining 2.4 yards per play is simply awful, and on a night in which they badly needed to get some confidence for QB Maty Mauk, off of his 9-21 vs. Georgia with four INTs, that did not happen.
Missouri ran the opening kickoff back for a TD, so every snap that Mauk took in the game came with a lead. It was 14-0 with 3:50 left in the first quarter, with the remainder played with a comfortable lead. But the offense only scored three times, a TD and two FGs, and those three possessions produced just 63 yards in 26 plays. Given the game circumstances, Mauk was even worse than he was vs. Georgia, competing only 6-18 passes for 20 yards, with one INT. There was an opportunity in that setting, to get him some easy completions to boost his confidence, but it was missed. Of the 49 Missouri snaps, only one gained more than nine yards. It is rare that one would not even think of upgrading a team that won in The Swamp by 29 points, but that should be the case – whatever plus you give to the Tiger defense and special teams gets negated by that showing by the offense. As for the Gators…
Item: Will Muschamp will be someone’s DC next season
Off of that Florida debacle vs. Missouri, Muschamp gets two weeks to prepare for Florida’s annual showdown vs. Georgia in Jacksonville, after going 0-3 vs. the Bulldogs so far in competitive games (the losses were by a combined 15 points). While it is likely going to get billed as a “must win” for him to keep his job, that is not likely the case – he may have to sweep out, which includes beating Florida State in Tallahassee, to still be on the sidelines during the Gators spring game next April. And the issues that enabled Missouri to win so easily despite an anemic offense on Saturday night will be the defining moments of the Muschamp years. Neither the Florida offensive schemes, nor the players on that side of the ball, have been good enough.
Saturday’s defeat marked the third time in five SEC games that the Gators could not score an offensive TD in the first half. Outside of the triple overtime vs. Kentucky, they could not reach 200 yards either running or passing vs. a conference opponent. In the only two wins in the L10 conference games, Florida led by just a single point at the end of regulation play.
The hope was that new OC Kurt Roper could change the fortunes of an offense that has now been held to 20 points or less 15 times in SEC play in Muschamp’s four seasons, and Roper has a quality resume. But on the field, it is difficult to see the pieces available to make it fit - this is the season for the seniors from Muschamp’s inaugural recruiting campaign, and NFL scouts are not going to be charting any of the Gator QBs or RBs. While sophomore WR Demarcus Robinson shows plenty of upside, his 34 catches are more than twice the production of anyone else, both in terms of catches and yardage. And that is the failure that will not be excused - Gainesville should be among the easiest places in the nation to recruit elite talent to the skill positions. This will be a plum opportunity for someone next season, while there will also be a program somewhere with the chance to sign a top-notch defensive mind. Muschamp has made that part of the equation work.
Item: The Wake Forest Offense is Even in Net TDs in lined games
As bad as the Florida offense has been, with players not good enough to make positive things happen vs. SEC defenses, the task of rebuilding at Wake Forest for Dave Clawson has had an even more ominous beginning. Through six lined games the Demon Deacons have the unsightly ratio of six offensive TDs being scored, vs. six by opposing defenses while that offense was on the field. There have been three TDs allowed both on Interception and Fumble returns. And in ACC play the ratio has been disastrous – through 12 quarters the offense has scored one TD, while allowing three.
Where do they go from here? The 2014 campaign offers few signs of hope, except perhaps to have the offense practice tackling a bit more during the week, so that turnovers might not lead to scores. Freshman QB John Wolford had to leave Saturday’s loss to Syracuse because of a possible concussion, and while he has shown that he is not ready to be leading a program at this level yet (12 INTs in only 204 attempts), he got the job because the options are so limited. Sophomore Tyler Cameron was ineffective as his replacement, but is the likely starter this week of Wolford is not cleared.
Teams like this can wreak havoc with traditional measurements. While defensive returns for TDs are often fluky bounces, they can also be the result of an offense not being able to stretch the field, which puts more defenders in the box, and subsequently in position to make those plays. Wake did not have a play of longer than 16 yards vs. Syracuse, and in 177 snaps over three ACC games, a gain of 24 has been the longest. Hence, the coaching conundrum – the fear of attacking down the field because the offense is not good enough, yet the knowledge that with so many defenders near the line of scrimmage, the odds of something bad happening when there is a turnover are increased. For this particular season, Clawson will be without answers.
Item: Iowa State’s play counts
The football resurrection of Mark Mangino, along with that of Ralph Friedgen at Rutgers, made it within reach to use some old Little Feat for a “Fat Man in the Press Box” reference here about a month ago (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1033973.aspx). Now it is important to understand just how Mangino’s stamp is being imprinted on the Iowa State offense – in opening the season on an ATS roll that has rewarded their backers often (a good shopper could have found their way to 6-0), it is a much different flow for the Cyclones.
On Saturday the offense was able to put up 30 first downs and 534 yards vs. a good Texas defense, largely through the pacing – there were 93 snaps. The week before it was 87 vs. Toledo. Since throwing 31 passes in the opener vs. North Dakota State that particular category has increased six consecutive times (has any team ever done that before?), with Sam Richardson putting it up 53 and 55 times the past two games. Sam Richardson!
The Cyclones will be off this week, but do not go to sleep on them. A winning season and a bowl bid may be a long shot, but this is a team that is playing with a lot of enthusiasm under a coaching staff they may respond well to in the practice sessions ahead. It provides such a contrast to Wake Forest above, where the coaching staff has their hands tied, and it is one of the handicapping keys in terms of anticipating which teams will go hard to the final whistle. A losing team playing with high energy can be of significant ATS value. And then there are winning teams that could be in trouble because there is little to look forward to. Like in Provo…
Item: Where does BYU go from here
A couple of weeks ago that was an “In the Sights…” take on Brigham Young’s trip to Orlando to face UCF, and how much losing to Utah State the previous week could have taken steam out of the Cougar season. Instead of Big Dreams, the best that could be hoped for is to get enough wins to qualify for the already contracted Miami Beach Bowl. It is an issue of the self-imposed exile that program has taken, opting for the status of an Independent in football, despite having had conference options on the table. After watching the way that the team went flat following a decent first half on Saturday night, the issues of intensity really do come into play – when the likes of Nevada can go one a 29-0 run at LaVell Edwards Stadium, a worst-case scenario may be playing out.
The issue is a simple one – while the program will be able to get some early-season showcase games on the schedule, the closing stretch of the campaign is another matter entirely. Few teams are going to want to play a tough non-conference opponent while in the heart of their league schedule. So when there is no chance to improve bowl positioning, and the upcoming opposition does not generate a passion among the players, how often will the team go through the motions? There can be a little spark at Boise State this week, with the national cameras involved, but look at that closing stretch – home games vs. UNLV and Savannah State, and road trips to Middle Tennessee State and California.
That will not change much going forward. There is already paperwork signed with the Poinsettia Bowl for 2016 and 2018, and the goal each season will be to have a deal in place with a minor bowl before the first game is played. Meanwhile the scheduling is so difficult that future Home/Away late-season matchups are on the table with Cincinnati, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Northern Illinois and San Jose State. Not only will it be difficult to attract top-tier recruits with such minimal upside to the seasons, but how do they keep the players on hand competing at a high level through those schedules? This is worth watching closely, since it could mean manually, and annually, adjusting their power ratings down a bit this time each season.
As for Saturday’s second half, it is another of those “be careful” box scores – while the defensive numbers were not awful because the last three Nevada drives started in Cougar territory, it may well have been one of those cases of the goal line becoming a key defender. Especially the final two scores, which needed only eight plays to cover 69 yards, suggesting that a longer field would likely have been marched.