This is the 20th anniversary of the first UFC event & the card is definitely highlighting the Welterweight Division with 5 of the 12 fights including the Main Event being at the 170lbs weight class. Last Saturday night's Fight Night card was very exciting because there were a ton of finishes with most being by KO. This card will not have as many finishes but features a lot of interesting matchups that will showcase the best styles of MMA that should still make it fun to watch. All lines came from William Hill Sportsbook & were quoted when I sent out my plays last night to anyone that has asked for them in advance.
5 Round Main Event for the Welterweight Championship
170lbs
Johny Hendricks (+210) OVER George St-Pierre (-250) (C)
The UFC hype machine markets every GSP fight as an exciting contest that could go either way but once the cage door closes, the fight ends up being pretty boring with GSP cruising to an easy victory. This fight is going to finally be the one that lives up to the hype. GSP uses his jab, long reach advantage, & great MMA wrestling to dictate the pace to pick up decision victories. Hendricks is a very powerful wrestler that has the best 1 punch knockout in the Welterweight Division if not the entire UFC.
This fight is going to go one of 2 ways. Either Hendricks knocks him out inside the first couple rounds or GSP wins a unanimous 5 round decision because I'm sorry but GSP can't even finish a sandwich. GSP's mentor Kristof Midoux advised him to KO Hendricks & then retire in the cage after the fight so I believe that GSP might already have 1 foot out the door & when facing an opponent as dangerous as Hendricks, it will prove to be too much for the champ. Everything Hendricks does is with power & GSP has never faced a wrestler this strong. GSP is not invincible & he does leave some openings in fights but most fighters lack the skill or power to capitalize on it. I believe that as long as Hendricks can use his wrestling for a takedown or 2 & block the takedown attempts by GSP, then he will find his opening to unleash that deadly left hand on GSP's chin to shock the world & knockout the champ.
205lbs
Chael Sonnen (+175) OVER Rashad Evans (-200)
This an extremely close fight between 2 great wrestlers but I believe Chael's pace & intensity will end up being too much for Evans. Rashad seems to be past his prime & although Sonnen is older, he is in the prime of his career. Both men are coming off victories that ended 2 fight losing streaks. Sonnen easily beat Shogun in the 1st round & Evans barely beat the old and washed up Hendo via split decision in one of the worst main events that I've seen in quite a while. I think that although Sonnen has a ton on his plate with all the TV appearances & his next fight already scheduled, he has downplayed how much this fight does mean to him & he will come out with a very close decision victory.
170lbs
Rory Macdonald (-400) OVER Robbie Lawler (+330)
Lawler has looked very good since dropping to 170 & he does have huge knockout power with 18 of his 21 victories coming by knockout but unless he catches Macdonald with a lucky punch, Macdonald will keep the distance & either cruise to a decision victory or find his spot to hurt & finish Lawler. It should be a fairly easily victory for the rising Canadian star.
170lbs
Josh Koscheck (+105) OVER Tyron Woodley (-125)
Both men are great wrestlers & I look for them to cancel each other out in that aspect so this should be a stand up battle. Koscheck is definitely past his prime but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to beat an overrated Woodley. Koscheck should push the pace & wear down Woodley before looking for the finish in the 2nd or 3rd round.
125lbs
Tim Elliot (-150) OVER Ali Bagauntinov (+130)
The Russians are making their presence known in the MMA world & there are quite a few that may have an opportunity to wear UFC fold in the future. Bagautinov definitely has a bright future & is an excellent Samba fighter but I believe the pace & aggression of Elliot will prove to be too much for the Russian. Bagautinov is very powerful & has been impressive but Elliot has an iron chin & should be able to take the Russian down enough times to secure a victory by decision or find an opening for a submission.
155lbs
Donald Cerrone (-110) OVER Evan Dunham (-110)
Cerrone plans to drop to 145 after this fight but I don't think it's the weight class that's the issue for him. He is terrible when there is pressure on him to win big fights. There is zero pressure on him for this fight & believe that he will be able to use his reach advantage to deliver lots of jabs & kicks to catch Dunham and finish this fight. Dunham is very durable & he does have good BJJ but Cerrone's Muay Thai will prove to be too much.
185lbs
Thales Leites (-210) OVER Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (+180)
Herman is definitely the popular choice here but I believe that Herman's fuse has burned out. Herman's biggest weakness is his submission defense & Leites biggest strength is his submission game. I believe that Leites will be able to take Herman down pretty easily & submit the beloved UFC vet inside 2 rounds.
170lbs
Rick Story (-215) OVER Brian Ebersole (+185)
I am definitely not the biggest fan of Story but he is a good wrestler that possesses some nice power. The key for Story is his takedown game. He's 7-1 when he wins the takedown edge but only 1-4 when he loses it. Ebersole is also a good wrestler & he does have very good takedown defense but he is off a 16 month layoff. Story should find his opening & wear down Ebersole enough to win this fight.
135lbs
Erik Perez (-400) OVER Edwin Figueroa (+320)
Perez is Bruno's favorite fighter lol. He comes out in a luchador mask & has a huge hype machine behind him. He did lose his last fight but this fight is basically a gift for him. Figueroa is off back to back losses & is on his way out of the UFC very soon. Perez should hit him with a big shot early & if that doesn't finish Figueroa then he will grab his neck & submit him inside a round.
170lbs
Jason High (-300) OVER Anthony Lapsley (+250)
Jason High looked very impressive in his last bout & I expect him to keep up the momentum with another easy victory. Lapsley is making his UFC debut & is a very good grappler with 15 of his 25 victories coming by submission but this is a big step up for him and he has struggled against good grapplers in the past. High is going to find an opening to apply his deadly guillotine & ruin the UFC debut of Lapsley inside a round.
135lbs
Will Campuzano (+340) OVER Sergio Pettis (-420)
Sergio is the younger brother of UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis. He's coming into this fight with an undefeated record & has a ton of hype behind him but this is the UFC debut for the 20 year old Pettis & this is definitely a step up in competition. So far, his biggest victory was over Tom McKenna & anyone that watched last night's Bellator 108 saw that McKenna is nothing to brag about. Campuzano is riding a 5 fight win streak since he was initially released by the UFC & although he isn't very good at takedowns, I believe that he will be able to exploit Pettis's terrible takedown defense enough to Frustrate Pettis into making a costly mistake & win this fight inside the distance. Pettis might have a bright future but most young hyped up fighters including his brother lose their UFC debut & this will be nothing different. Everyone pays their dues.
205lbs
Gian Villante (-345) OVER Cody Donovan (+285)
Villante is a very good wrestler with nice power & a BJJ blue belt. He is looking to get back on track after losing his UFC debut. Villante needs to use his tremendous takedown defense to keep this fight standing & avoid submission attempts by Donovan. Donovan is a very good grappler but has a questionable chin & I look for Villante to turn this into a brawl & knockout Donovan in the 1st or 2nd round.