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Betting the Oscars with Tara and Tony Da Guru

Thread Starter Betting the Oscars with Tara and Tony Da Guru
tonydaguru
Joined: 11/20/2009
Posts: 4236
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Top 150 Contributor

I may have stepped away from the game but it's Oscar time, which to me is not far behind the Super Bowl and the Final 4.  I know it sounds crazy but I work in the film industry, so this event always holds a special place for me.  I hope the pregame family has been doing well and I hope we can provide some insight to this years big show.  Most importantly I hope we can help you guys cash a few tickets this Sunday.

Tara and I will be here all week talking value and strategy.  Along with fellow film buffs and stud handicappers RJ Bell, Gil Alexander, BWatson, and many more, I think we can come up with some winners.  So let's get the discussion going.

Here are the current odds on Bovada.lv

Saturday, February 25, 2012 (Times shown in Central Standard Time)
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Adapted Screenplay 
 
The Descendants
 
Moneyball
 
Hugo
 
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
 
The Ides of March
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Animated Feature Film 
 
Rango
 
Chico and Rita
 
A Cat In Paris
 
Puss in Boots
 
Kung Fu Panda 2
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Original Screenplay 
 
Midnight in Paris
 
The Artist
 
A Separation
 
Bridesmaids
 
Margin Call
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Original Score 
 
Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
 
John Williams (War Horse)
 
Howard Stone (Hugo)
 
Alberto Iglesias (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
 
John Williams (The Adventures Of Tintin)
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Will Christopher Plummer win Best Supporting Actor? 
 
Yes
 
No
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Will Octavia Spencer win Best Supporting Actress? 
 
Yes
 
No
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Director 
 
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
 
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
 
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
 
Terrance Malik (Tree of Life)
 
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Picture 
 
The Artist
 
The Descendants
 
The Help
 
Hugo
 
War Horse
 
Moneyball
 
Midnight in Paris
 
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
 
The Tree of Life
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Actor 
 
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
 
George Clooney (The Descendants)
 
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
 
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
 
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
10:00p
2012 Oscars - Odds to Win Best Actress 
 
Viola Davis (The Help)
 
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
 
Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
 
Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
 
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Twitter........@TonyDaGuru

Filmmaker.  Sports fan.  Guru.

Accomplishments/TOP STREAKS:

(2011)  All Sports TOP 3* Plays  20-12........(62.5%)

NBA (2010/11) 3* Plays 15-7.......68.1% (+14.6)

NFL (2010) 44-37-2...............54.3% (+8.675)

NBA (2009/10) 120-94-5......... 56%(+13.85)

MLB Playoffs (2010) 13-6.............68.4%(+6.38)

2010 Sports-Bettors.com #9 NFL Handicapper Record: 51-39-2 56.6%

More records in my Bio...

JBRAN
Joined: 04/03/2011
Posts: 351
College Varsity
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One absolute slam-dunk is Terrance Mann's Tree of Life for Best Cinematography - I think I saw it at -140--this is a mortal lock.

tonydaguru
Joined: 11/20/2009
Posts: 4236
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

YES!!!  Cinematography is my specialty and profession actually, and I totally agree.  This is Emanuel Lebezki's 5th nomination.  Many feel he should have won in '07 for "Children of Men" (of which he received the ASC award) but it was tough to beat Pan's Labyrinth that year.  I think this is the year the Academy honors him.  His competition is "The Artist" and "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."  I think we can rule out "Hugo" because the Academy caught a lot of flack for  3D film winning a few years ago and I can't imagine they give the nod to another 3D film so soon.  Plus Robert Richardson has already won an Oscar this decade for "The Aviator."  Oscar loves to spread the wealth, which means that previous winners are at a disadvantage since they already have the hardware.  The other previous winner nominated this year is Januz Kaminski for "War Horse."  What hurts his chances is that "War Horse" can't live up to his previous wins with "Schidler's List" and "Saving Private Ryan," so the bar is set too high for him to win another Oscar anytime soon.  

I'll touch on this category a lot more this week, but I think you are spot on and wouldn't be surprised to see this number move up to -200 or more by Saturday.  Just curious, what book did you see this line?  

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Twitter........@TonyDaGuru

Filmmaker.  Sports fan.  Guru.

Accomplishments/TOP STREAKS:

(2011)  All Sports TOP 3* Plays  20-12........(62.5%)

NBA (2010/11) 3* Plays 15-7.......68.1% (+14.6)

NFL (2010) 44-37-2...............54.3% (+8.675)

NBA (2009/10) 120-94-5......... 56%(+13.85)

MLB Playoffs (2010) 13-6.............68.4%(+6.38)

2010 Sports-Bettors.com #9 NFL Handicapper Record: 51-39-2 56.6%

More records in my Bio...

JBRAN
Joined: 04/03/2011
Posts: 351
College Varsity
Not Ranked

5 dimes if I remember correctly.....

tonydaguru
Joined: 11/20/2009
Posts: 4236
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Thanks, I'll check that out.  Here is a site that has the odds for every category.  Mostly at foreign books but it should give us a good idea of who the favorites are, and who might have some value as a dog when bodog post their full lists later this week.

www.easyodds.com/.../oscars.html

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Twitter........@TonyDaGuru

Filmmaker.  Sports fan.  Guru.

Accomplishments/TOP STREAKS:

(2011)  All Sports TOP 3* Plays  20-12........(62.5%)

NBA (2010/11) 3* Plays 15-7.......68.1% (+14.6)

NFL (2010) 44-37-2...............54.3% (+8.675)

NBA (2009/10) 120-94-5......... 56%(+13.85)

MLB Playoffs (2010) 13-6.............68.4%(+6.38)

2010 Sports-Bettors.com #9 NFL Handicapper Record: 51-39-2 56.6%

More records in my Bio...

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5683
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Moved to -225 now

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

tonydaguru
Joined: 11/20/2009
Posts: 4236
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

I think now is the time to grab it.  It will just keep going up all week.  Still can't find it at an "American" book though.  See a few foreign books have it.  Some as high as -300.

Is it at 5Dimes?  All I see there is director, picture, and the actors

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Twitter........@TonyDaGuru

Filmmaker.  Sports fan.  Guru.

Accomplishments/TOP STREAKS:

(2011)  All Sports TOP 3* Plays  20-12........(62.5%)

NBA (2010/11) 3* Plays 15-7.......68.1% (+14.6)

NFL (2010) 44-37-2...............54.3% (+8.675)

NBA (2009/10) 120-94-5......... 56%(+13.85)

MLB Playoffs (2010) 13-6.............68.4%(+6.38)

2010 Sports-Bettors.com #9 NFL Handicapper Record: 51-39-2 56.6%

More records in my Bio...

JBRAN
Joined: 04/03/2011
Posts: 351
College Varsity
Not Ranked

it's under futures--the christopher plummer is a shoe-in too, but unbettable..another in the lengthy "make up" awards for career achievement long after its warranted ala Paul Newman, Jeff Bridges and Scorsese

dk70
Joined: 01/03/2011
Posts: 1666
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

What are your thoughts on Streep at 5/4?

I think that in this political environment, she's a shoe-in.  Hollywood's take on a conservative icon in an election year.

JBRAN
Joined: 04/03/2011
Posts: 351
College Varsity
Not Ranked

She's won before, more than once..so there's that..and the film wasnt widely seen....Id say if anyone but Davis wins (which i don't think is probable) I think Michelle Williams might be worth a stab @ 10-1---but this is Davis' award.....no matter who had the best performance.

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