Betting the Oscars with Tara and Tony Da Guru

I may have stepped away from the game but it's Oscar time, which to me is not far behind the Super Bowl and the Final 4.  I know it sounds crazy but I work in the film industry, so this event always holds a special place for me.  I hope the pregame family has been doing well and I hope we can provide some insight to this years big show.  Most importantly I hope we can help you guys cash a few tickets this Sunday.

Tara and I will be here all week talking value and strategy.  Along with fellow film buffs and stud handicappers RJ Bell, Gil Alexander, BWatson, and many more, I think we can come up with some winners.  So let's get the discussion going.

Here are the current odds on Bovada.lv

One absolute slam-dunk is Terrance Mann's Tree of Life for Best Cinematography - I think I saw it at -140--this is a mortal lock.

YES!!!  Cinematography is my specialty and profession actually, and I totally agree.  This is Emanuel Lebezki's 5th nomination.  Many feel he should have won in '07 for "Children of Men" (of which he received the ASC award) but it was tough to beat Pan's Labyrinth that year.  I think this is the year the Academy honors him.  His competition is "The Artist" and "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."  I think we can rule out "Hugo" because the Academy caught a lot of flack for  3D film winning a few years ago and I can't imagine they give the nod to another 3D film so soon.  Plus Robert Richardson has already won an Oscar this decade for "The Aviator."  Oscar loves to spread the wealth, which means that previous winners are at a disadvantage since they already have the hardware.  The other previous winner nominated this year is Januz Kaminski for "War Horse."  What hurts his chances is that "War Horse" can't live up to his previous wins with "Schidler's List" and "Saving Private Ryan," so the bar is set too high for him to win another Oscar anytime soon.  

I'll touch on this category a lot more this week, but I think you are spot on and wouldn't be surprised to see this number move up to -200 or more by Saturday.  Just curious, what book did you see this line?  

5 dimes if I remember correctly.....

Thanks, I'll check that out.  Here is a site that has the odds for every category.  Mostly at foreign books but it should give us a good idea of who the favorites are, and who might have some value as a dog when bodog post their full lists later this week.

www.easyodds.com/.../oscars.html

Moved to -225 now

I think now is the time to grab it.  It will just keep going up all week.  Still can't find it at an "American" book though.  See a few foreign books have it.  Some as high as -300.

Is it at 5Dimes?  All I see there is director, picture, and the actors

it's under futures--the christopher plummer is a shoe-in too, but unbettable..another in the lengthy "make up" awards for career achievement long after its warranted ala Paul Newman, Jeff Bridges and Scorsese

What are your thoughts on Streep at 5/4?

I think that in this political environment, she's a shoe-in.  Hollywood's take on a conservative icon in an election year.

She's won before, more than once..so there's that..and the film wasnt widely seen....Id say if anyone but Davis wins (which i don't think is probable) I think Michelle Williams might be worth a stab @ 10-1---but this is Davis' award.....no matter who had the best performance.