The AFL lines are extremely volatile on game day. It’s not unusual to see a Side move 10 points, and a Total up to 15. For most games, I have wagers on both sides, and both the Over and Under. I won’t be posting selections, but rather my lines for each game. If anyone chooses to, they can make wagers when the actual line strays from my posted numbers. Big windows for middles are generally available.
Philadelphia Soul –17 WASHINGTON VALOR O/U 95 1pm:
Soul are defending champs and unbeaten this year. Valor are an expansion team with only one victory on the season, despite playing some competitive games. Washington has really struggled to score this season, and has only surpassed 40 pts twice thus far. To make matters worse, their starting QB is on the DL, and the experienced backup left the team this week. They had to activate the 3rd stringer, who has only 5 games of experience from 2 years ago. I’m not even sure if he got more than one full practice in this week. Not a good situation.
The Total was a bit difficult to set, because Philly is the best offense in the league, and routinely puts up 60+. Besides the offensive firepower, the head coach, Clint Dolezel, isn’t afraid to go onsides multiple times per game. Countering that however, is the anemic Valor offense, further weakened by QB issues, and the propensity of their Head Coach, Dean Cokinos, to waste his timeouts early in halves, thus allowing opponents to drain clock and limit total possessions. It’s an Over team vs and Under team. Philly could get 70 themselves, but Washington will be hard pressed to reach 40, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them under 30.
Cleveland Gladiators-3 BALTIMORE BRIGADE O/U 104.5 7pm:
Both teams have only one win this season, but the Glads are the more talented squad. They have lost two straight to the dominating Philly team, a 2 point tight one 3 weeks ago at home, and then a blowout loss in Philly last week off a bye. Teams off a bye are 0-6 this season, which leads us to the Brigade. They are off their bye this week, after nearly pulling off the biggest upset of the year two weeks ago as 23 point dogs vs Philly. They played well, but melted down late in the surprisingly tight game that they led with under a minute remaining. They scored on three passes of over 45 yards, and probably played better than they truly are. That game came on the heels of another tight loss to the 2nd best team in the league the week before, when they lost by 7 to the TB Storm. In that game, they benefitted from two bar balls that set up easy TDs, and got them back into a game that they were being soundly beaten. I believe they may receive some undue respect this week, because of the prior two games in which they were the recipients of some good fortune. This also may contribute to an artificially high Total for this matchup, as their seasonal scoring average may not indicate their true offensive ability.