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SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....

Thread Starter SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....
sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 2098
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Went back tonight and found last years thread, we had over 11,200 hits on it thru the Derby. Already putting some stuff together, as we are less than 8 weeks away........ people that followed, made some money but not enough to really get excited over. This year may be different, as it appears to be WAY more competitive at this point.

It was quite time consuming last year, this year I hope to condense some things to reduce my time spent entering it all.

i'll start posting some general stuff in the next day or two. Feel free to say hi!

Did you see Andy Byer and Steve Crist  were both elected to horse racing's hall of fame last month. Both are retired, or close to it, Crist is really missed- he had some great insights.

Captain Obvious
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Cool. Looking forward to some good info. Thanks, man.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB4135353.95210.00
MLB125130449.021107.00
NBA67046.15-170.00
NFL2715064.291033.00
NHL12033.33-95.00
sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
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Steve Haskin from Bloodhorse manages a "Top 12" Derby Horse list, which he updates weekly. This is a very good starting point.

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../derby-dozen-march-7-2017-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

sshz
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Posts: 2098
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The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool is closed  now, but here are the final odds on the top 24 horses......

2017 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3

                                ML Final Odds $2 Payoff

1 Always Dreaming* 50-1 42-1 $86.40

2 American Anthem 15-1 16-1 $34.60

3 Battalion Runner 20-1 34-1 $70.60

4 Classic Empire 8-1         11-1 $24.40

5 El Areeb*         20-1 20-1 $42.40

6 Epicharis (JPN)* 30-1 41-1 $84.80

7 Gormley                 15-1 18-1         $39.00

8 Guest Suite (g) 50-1 60-1 $123.40

9 Gunnevera         20-1 22-1 $46.00

10 Iliad (r)*                 15-1 24-1         $51.40

11 Irish War Cry           12-1 7-1          $16.80

12 Local Hero*         50-1 72-1  $147.80

13 Malagacy         30-1 53-1  $109.20

14 Mastery                 10-1 8-1          $18.40

15 McCraken          8-1         6-1          $15.60

16 Mo Town                 15-1 27-1    $57.20

17 One Liner*         15-1 12-1  $26.60

18 Petrov*                 30-1 73-1  $148.80

19 Practical Joke         20-1 19-1  $40.40

20 Royal Mo*         15-1 36-1  $74.00

21 State of Honor* 50-1 198-1  $399.40

22 Tapwrit*                 20-1 22-1  $46.40

23 Wild Shot         50-1 120-1  $242.80

24 All Others         4-1   5-1    $12.40

sshz
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Posts: 2098
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Let's review last years results:

Nyquist, 2-1, Zips to Victory

Nyquist was the best horse in the 2016 Kentucky Derby, and he demonstrated it with a rousing win after stalking a quick pace.

The son of Uncle Mo broke well from post 13, and the full field of 20 headed down the stretch for the first time. Nyquist was soon in front but ran under the finish line the first time just behind Danzing Candy, who was timed in a brisk 22.58. Danzing Candy, the expected pacesetter, fully ran by Nyquist in the first turn, getting the first half-mile in 45.77. At that point, Nyquist was four lengths back in second, followed by Gun Runner and Outwork.

Going up the backstretch, Gun Runner slipped to the inside and gained second position. He began challenging Danzing Candy while Nyquist and Mario Gutierrez bided their time to the outside in third. Outwork was still fourth.  The first six furlongs soon went into the books in 1:10.40. Gun Runner and Nyquist put away Danzing Candy in the far turn while Outwork retreated. Nyquist took over in upper stretch, and Gun Runner gamely stayed on while Exaggerator, who was well back in the early going, mounted a furious charge.

At the furlong marker, Nyquist looked like a winner, and at the wire, Nyquist had done it, completing Kentucky Derby 142 in 2:01.31 while besting Exaggerator by 1 1/4 length. Gun Runner finished a stubborn third, beaten 4 1/2 lengths and barely holding off the late-running Mohaymen. That one broke a step slow and was pinched back soon after the gates opened.

The Derby winner is now undefeated in eight starts. It was the third meeting between Nyquist and Exaggerator. The Derby runner-up was fourth behind Nyquist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile  on Oct. 31 and second to him in the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 15.

Trainer Doug O'Neill, owner Paul Reddam and Gutierrez won the Kentucky Derby for the second time. They teamed up when I'll Have Another was triumphant in 2012.

Nyquist became the fourth straight favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, following the footsteps of Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015). Nyquist is the 108th Kentucky-bred to win the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Bred by Summerhill Farm, Nyquist is out of Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry.

2016 Kentucky Derby Facts, Figures

Winning Connections of Nyquist

Breeder:Summerhill Farm (KY)

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Owner: Reddam Racing LLC

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Sire (Sire’s Sire, Dam): Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie, Playa Maya)

Dam (Dam’s Sire, Dam): Gabrielle (Forestry, Seeking Regina)

Dosage Profile (Points) Index: 1-2-1-0-0 (4) 7.00

Foal Date: March 10, 2013

The Top Five Finishers

1. Nyquist

2. Exaggerator

3. Gun Runner

4. Mohaymen

5. Suddenbreakingnews

Times, Conditions

Winning Time: 2:01.31

Track: Fast

Pace Fractions: 22.58, 45.72, 1:10.40, 1:35.61, 2:01.31

Nyquist's Fractions: 22.68, 46.52, 1:10.80, 1:35.63, 2:01.31

Nyquist's Internal Fractions: He went the first quarter mile of the Kentucky Derby in 22.68, the second quarter in 23.84, the third in 24.28, the fourth in 24.83 and the final quarter mile in 25.68.

Winning Margin: 1 1/4 length

Purse: $2,391,600. First $1,631,600; second $400,000; third $200,000; fourth $100,000; fifth $60,000

Payoffs

Nyquist: $6.60 to win, $4.80 to place and $3.60 to show

Exaggerator: $5.40 to place, $4.20 to show

Gun Runner: $6.00 to show

$2 Double $63.60

$2 Exacta $30.60

$2 Pick 3 $109.20

$1 Pick 4 $11,447.60

$0.50 Pick Five 5 $24,152.45

$1 Pick 6 (5 of 6) $4,519.30

$1 Super High Five $5,794.50

$1 Superfecta $542.10

$2 Trifecta $173.40

Finish position, beaten lengths

1. Nyquist

2. Exaggerator, beaten 1 1/4 length

3. Gun Runner, beaten 4 1/2 lengths

4. Mohaymen, beaten 4 1/2 lengths, nose

5. Suddenbreakingnews, beaten 4 3/4 lengths

6. Destin, beaten 7 lengths

7. Brody's Cause, beaten 9 1/2 lengths

8. Mo Tom, beaten 10 1/4 lengths

9. Lani, beaten 10 3/4 lengths

10. Mor Spirit, beaten 14 1/2 lengths

11. My Man Sam, beaten 14 1/2 lengths, head

12. Tom's Ready, beaten 17 lengths

13. Creator, beaten 18 1/4 lengths

14. Outwork, beaten 18 1/2 lengths

15. Danzing Candy, beaten 20 lengths

16. Trojan Nation, beaten 26 3/4 lengths

17. Oscar Nominated, beaten 32 1/2 lengths

18. Majesto, beaten 36 3/4 lengths

19. Whitmore, beaten 37 1/4 length

20. Shagaf, DNF

Scratched: Laoban, Cherry Wine

Announced Attendance

2016: Attendance 167,227, second highest

2015: Attendance: 170,513, a record

2014 Attendance: 164,906

2013 Attendance 151,616

2012 Attendance 165,307

2011 Attendance: 164,858

2010 Attendance: 155,804

2009 Attendance: 153,563

2008 Attendance: 157,770

2007 Attendance: 156,635

2006 Attendance: 157,536

TRIVIA

Battle of the Asmussen Horses

Gun Runner finished third, Creator finished 13th

Battle of the Pletcher Horses

Outwork finished 14th, Destin finished sixth

Battle of the Chad Brown Horses

My Man Sam finished 11th, Shagaf did not finish

Best, Worst in Proportion to Odds

Best finish of a low-odds horse: Nyquist won at 2.30-1

Worst finish of a low-odds horse: Mor Spirit finished 10th at 12-1

Best finish of a high-odds horse: Suddenbreakingnews finished fifth at 24-1

Worst finish of a high-odds horse: Shagaf did not finish at 56-1

Finish Position of the Grade I Winners

Florida Derby winner Nyquist finished first

Wood Memorial winner Outwork finished 14th

Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator finished second

Arkansas Derby winner Creator finished 13th

Blue Grass Stakes winner Brody's Cause finished seventh

Show Bet in the Derby

Nyquist paid $3.60 to show.

Exaggerator paid $4.20 to show.to show.

Gun Runner paid $6.00 to show

Closer That Couldn't Get There

Whitmore finished 19th after being fifth after six furlongs.

Closer That Got Into the Mix Late

Exaggerator finished second after being 15th after six furlongs.

Winner Lengths from Pace

At a quarter-mile: one-half length

At a half-mile: four lengths

At six furlongs:two lengths

At one mile: head

At 1 1/8 mile: first by 2 1/2 lengths

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 2098
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Top 500 Contributor

Dick Downey's top 18 horses, on his "Watch List" as of today...........

AMERICAN ANTHEM

CLASSIC EMPIRE

EL AREEB

EPICHARIS

GIRVIN

GORMLEY

GUEST SUITE

GUNNEVERA

J BOYS ECHO

MASTERY

MCCRAKEN

ONE LINER

PETROV

PRACTICAL JOKE

ROYAL MO

STATE OF HONOR

TAPWRIT

UNTRAPPED

sshz
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Tampa Bay Derby is tomorrow, 3/11. A group of us buy "someone's" picks from now thru the Belmont, along with other stats, etc. If you check last years thread I mention him over and over. These are his releases for tomorrow for the Derby:

1st       Tapwrit                     (3-1)

2nd      Wild Shot                 (5-1)

3rd       Beasley                   (9/2)

4th       State of Honor         (4-1)

No great surprises in a very competitve race. He also said to use No Dose if he's higher than 6-1. Weather looks fine, race goes off around 5:25PM.

Free PP's for race:  

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=TAM&race=11&param1=2145&param2=715&param3=1863708



Added info
[edited by: sshz at 7:34 PM (GMT -8) on Fri, Mar 10 2017]
sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 2098
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While we are at it....the San Felipe Stakes goes tomorrow at Santa Anita too...........

Below are his picks:

1st          Mastery

2nd         Iliad

3rd         Term of Art

4th         Gormley

More favorites, in a 7 horse race. Pass on this one, there are loads of stakes races across the country to pick from.

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 2098
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If you don't know who these guys are, think about switching sports to bet on......

Image result for andy beyer and steve crist hall of fame picture

Mr. Moke
Joined: 10/08/2016
Posts: 607
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As of now, it doesn't look like an elite crop for the Derby.  

I am intrigued by Epicharis, at a big price, this year.  Eventually, a horse from the UAE or Japan is going to win the race with all the money they are spending.  Japenese racing has come a long way over the past decade.

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