R. GARRIGUS -125 over D. Hearn +105 / 3rd round match up at Congressional Saturday June 25 12:55 ET
I heard Robert mention in an interview after his 2nd round, "I made a 17 footer for par on #1, everything changes when the putts are dropping, those putts weren't going in at the Byron Nelson" and "If they keep making this course play as long as it has the last two days I like my chances, I'm hitting 6 and 7 irons into greens while most guys are hitting 3 and 4 irons." RG loves this course because he loves big, fast greens and long holes. This is exactly the kind of course that allows him to showcase his strengths. David Hearn is a nice little player, he hits a ton of greens (67% career, 75% this week), he is a very good "hard course" player meaning when par is a good score he is at his best, Congressional seems to be a good fit for him and he buried a mile of putts Friday (3.037 SGP) including 4 putts holed from outside 11 feet to shoot -4 under. Hearn drives it straight and short (280 yds avg.), which is good for making pars, but par is not going to be a good score tomorrow if you're going heads up with Robert Garrigus (302 avg.) on one of his favorite venues of all time. This is a similar situation to the Friday match up with Molanari, from the oddsmakers POV Hearn is a higher ranked, more consistent player with a slightly lower stroke avg.(70.96) than Garrigus (71.56), but this is RG's track and I love getting two to three clubs on every hole including the par 3's because Garrigus isn't just long with driver, he is long with his irons as well.
This is another 5 unit max play for me. I feel like you don't get to many mis-matches in length like this.