Ok, so, I've been looking for two games to bet in Denmark this weekend for a while, no line on the second one yet which is in the second best division.
For this game, the home team is a scary team to bet on the surface. They've managed just 3 goals in 8 games, they're without a win and they're dead last in the division. Contrast that with their opponent Hobro who are 4th, have managed to get 15 points and scored 13 goals. Still, I think there's value on the homeside at +135. First of all, both teams are promoted sides. Second of all, last season Silkeborg won the division and in their three games against Hobro (2 at Hobro, 1 in Silkeborg) they won 2 and lost 1. Nothing to suggest that Hobro are the better side. They(Hobro) added a good pacey, hard working attacker in Quincy Antipas who is like a wasp and is constantly threatening on counter attacks, a great player for a promoted side even if he was out of favor at Brondby. But that's really all. Could he really have made such a big difference for them?
I don't think so. I still think Silkeborg is the better side, and recently the trends have begun to suggest as much. Silkeborg threw away a 2-1 lead against Aalborg in the 78th minute to finish 2-2 three games ago, lost 2-1 against FC Nordsjaelland 2 games ago after being 1-0 up going into the 2nd half and lost their last game away to Randers 1-0 in a goal in the 88th minute. Is this all bad luck? No, of course not. Adapting to the highest league is tough, it's more physically taxing and mistakes are punished harder meaning a more disciplined approach is needed. Still, you would have to say that being in those positions they would, on balance, be expected to get more points from those games if replayed 100 times (I think). That's why I think recently the results have been a bit misleading.
On the other side is Hobro, before the season condemned to relegation, but they have taken everyone by storm, winning 3-0 in Parken against FC Copenhagen. Lately they have come a bit down to earth. In their last 4 they beat last year's promted side FC Vestsjaelland, drew 0-0 against FC Nordsjaelland and 1-1 with Esbjerg and SoenderjyskE. No doubt results they are and should be pleased with, but not really that impressive either.
I think this is a statement game for Silkeborg, they need this game badly, it's an early 6 pointer because by the end of the season Hobro will in all likelihood be in a relegation battle. Still, it might be tough for Hobro to get their arms down after their fantastic season while Silkeborg knows this is an absolute must win game.
Record:
Norway-Italy 2 (-120) Win
Southampton-Newcastle 2 (Draw no bet) (+275) Loss
Brondby-Randers 1 (-120) Loss
Monaco-Leverkusen Both teams score (-120) Loss
Mainz-Dortmund Over 2.5 (-160) Loss
Future
Manchester United to win PL + 1700 (Line currently +1300)