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# Debunking the Value Theory

 Thread Starter Debunking the Value Theory
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5448

Once someone has bet sports long enough to think they're sharp, they start accumulating these "Rules to bet by" which are usually just a fallacy.  One of them is there is no value in laying big chalk.

The simple answer is any bet at any given price can have value, be it 50/1 or 1/50.

I won't give out many plays but to give an example for this thread I just bet Kaymer NOT top 5 at -400.

According to the market this has at least an 85% chance of winning which is well beyond the 80% needed.

The market is still not very mature with more than a day and a half left, but there's enough of an overlay to warrant a bet right now.

The thing to remember is it may lose and that didn't make it a poor bet because you can't judge betting decisions in a vacuum.  Just like someone laying Justin Rose to win at -800 would be a great bet even with him being the hottest golfer on the planet and even if he does win.

I agree that if you don't know how to either price something or read the market, you shouldn't be laying huge chalk because you'll be paying a premium price for your mistake.  But once you understand these things, you shouldn't discount any bet

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 10161

Lloyd Christmas
Justin Rose to win at -800

You must mean NOT to win at -800

I think you make a valid point and no place better than to look at serious chalk in a golf tournament in a prop type wager.  I do not agree with laying serious chalk in mlb, hockey (sides & totals), as anything can and does happen - often.

Betting the "don't come" line has it's place on the crap table, that I know is certain.

Insanity:  Doing the same thing and expecting different results.

We shall see.

2014-2015

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Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5448

razorback fan

Lloyd Christmas
Justin Rose to win at -800

You must mean NOT to win at -800

I think you make a valid point and no place better than to look at serious chalk in a golf tournament in a prop type wager.  I do not agree with laying serious chalk in mlb, hockey (sides & totals), as anything can and does happen - often.

Betting the "don't come" line has it's place on the crap table, that I know is certain.

"Laying" means you're betting it to not happen.  So if you laid Rose you'd be betting him not to win.

Good point regarding don't come.  It's the lowest house advantage bet in craps.  Craps is mathematically unbeatable although some people claim it is mechanically beatable.

The best strategy you can have for getting drunk at the casino is find a \$5 min craps table and bet don't come only.  You'll lose about \$4 an hour which will cover the cost of drinks not to mention any comps you accrue.  If you don't want to be a Scrooge you can bet the pass and it will only cost you a few cents

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 12/12/2009
Posts: 15703

Curious what your threshold is in a situation like this. I could've bet a play yesterday at +122. Now it's +115(+111 at Pinny). I set the line at even and fully expect it to at least drop to +105. So what's more important, the fact that I've lost \$7 from yesterday or that I still have at least \$10 of perceived value?

3 Year NHL Record

279-203-18 (+91.535)

@dennistyler

Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5328

dennistyler

Curious what your threshold is in a situation like this. I could've bet a play yesterday at +122. Now it's +115(+111 at Pinny). I set the line at even and fully expect it to at least drop to +105. So what's more important, the fact that I've lost \$7 from yesterday or that I still have at least \$10 of perceived value?

Dennis, you can't limit yourself to just dating virgins and sometimes dating an experienced **** has its advantages......if there is value.....take it!

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Joined: 12/12/2009
Posts: 15703

Toofdoc

dennistyler

Curious what your threshold is in a situation like this. I could've bet a play yesterday at +122. Now it's +115(+111 at Pinny). I set the line at even and fully expect it to at least drop to +105. So what's more important, the fact that I've lost \$7 from yesterday or that I still have at least \$10 of perceived value?

Dennis, you can't limit yourself to just dating virgins and sometimes dating an experienced **** has its advantages......if there is value.....take it!

I'll never give up on my virgins! Touched for the very first time...

3 Year NHL Record

279-203-18 (+91.535)

@dennistyler

Joined: 08/01/2011
Posts: 4424

Great writeups sir. Thanks

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %\$ Won
NFL11585357.501890.00
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5448

Toofdoc

dennistyler

Curious what your threshold is in a situation like this. I could've bet a play yesterday at +122. Now it's +115(+111 at Pinny). I set the line at even and fully expect it to at least drop to +105. So what's more important, the fact that I've lost \$7 from yesterday or that I still have at least \$10 of perceived value?

Dennis, you can't limit yourself to just dating virgins and sometimes dating an experienced **** has its advantages......if there is value.....take it!

very well put

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5448

SOUR

Great writeups sir. Thanks

no problem

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13849

This thread makes up for "others". Nice work, Llyod.

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Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

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