Hey Everyone!
I know it's already Wednesday afternoon - so I'll get right into it. Lots to get posted today - so let's start with some Outright plays. But first - Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, SC requires a good ball-striker. Tight narrow tree-lined fairways await players, which often require playing to a specific portion of them in order to have a direct look at the greens. And these greens are some of the smallest on tour. Typically players who are accurate off the tee and into greens do well here - but since the greens are tough to hit we will look to those who have the ability to get up and down successfully. I also happen to think that Proximity To Hole is key this week since getting to far away from certain pin positions could prove rather difficult, even if the greens are pretty small overall. And of course the ever important Strokes Gained Putting stat is again in play.
I know that's a quick run-down, but this has been a tough start to the week with unfortunate personal matters taking precedence.
I do want to speak about my strategy for Outright plays this week. I very much like a few players at the top of the market, namely Donald and Kuchar. But I just can't bring myself to pay the price they are currently at - around 15/1. What I have decided to do instead is make a few selections near the top of my stats board, with the idea of potentially jumping in on Kuch or Donald after Rd 1 or 2 - if the price is right. So as of right now I have 3 plays, and I may have a 4th this afternoon. But let's get right into it. And again - sorry for the delayed thread this week and the lack of a detailed write-up.
Outright Plays - each .5u
Zach Johnson - 20/1
-Zach is the top name on my board this week with some fantastic numbers in our key stats. 12th in Proximity, 13th in Scrambling, 20th in Ball Striking, and 52nd in Strokes Gained Putting has Zach way out in front on the board. He also owns a 6th here in 2007, and more recently a 2nd in 2012. Even though he missed the cut last week at Augusta, before that he finished 6th in the Valero Texas Open, and also added another Top 20 when he placed 16th at the WGC Cadillac 6 weeks ago. I actually am a little shocked Zach hasn’t done better here as he is one of the straightest drivers on Tour, hits lots of greens, and has a fantastic short game. Pretty much the exact game needed here to win – so let’s hope he does it this weekend.
Will MacKenzie – 45/1
-Will is on some ridiculous form having gone 6, 4, 43, and then most recently a 2nd place finish 3 weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open. 11th in Strokes Gained Putting and 22nd in Ball Striking is the perfect blend for Harbour Town. He has made the cut each of the 5 times playing here between 2007-2011, but with rather pedestrian finishes (69, 32, 77, 72, 50)… No one is saying that this is the same player however. Coming on strong in 2014 with a game that is performing strong at some good tracks, Will is in prime position for his 3rd PGA Tour win, and his first since the old Viking Classic (now the Sanderson Farms Champ) back in 2008.
Charley Hoffman – 46/1
-The solo 54 hole leader in last year’s RBC Heritage, Charley ended up finished 6th. He also owns an 8th place finish here in 2012 – so some very strong Course Form from Charley. And with a Recent Form that reads 12, 25, 11, and 37 – he definitely is ‘On’ form. He also finds himself 6th on my board this week as he is 16th in Ball Striking, 40th in Proximity, 61st in Strokes Gained Putting, and 70th in Scrambling. We have taken Charley a few times recently, so let’s hope he rewards us this week and is wearing the Tartan Jacket come Sunday!
So for the time being I only have these 3 plays. As I said before – I really like Luke and Kuch - but just can’t pull the trigger at their current prices – especially with such other good players available up there (Spieth, Furyk, GMac). I have a feeling we may be able to fire after tomorrow’s Rd 1 at slightly better value. There are a few guys I am considering adding now (Garrigus & Perez primarily), but for the time being I don’t mind laying 1.5 units in total knowing that Luke and Kuch are real possibilities.
The full card will be posted by early tonight – and that includes the usual… 72hers, 18hers, and some Top 5/10 plays. Lots still to come!
Best of luck to everyone this week with all your action! Now get in here and let’s talk about it all!
-LinksPicks