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SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....

SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....
sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1897
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I'll also do a TrackMaster lesson this week to help people understand what it's all about and how it saves you money putting tickets together. It was designed by Steve Crist and is very helpful.....

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
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OK.......so with the Trackmaster, if you have a "C" horse in any of the 4 legs, all the other races must be won by an  "A" horses so we are alive to the 2, 3, and 11 only. Here are the $.50 payouts:

#2     $317

#3    $302

#11   $320

Again close to doubling your bet money, pays aren't great though. Let's get it home!!!!!

sshz
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Well, we danced around a bit today. I was happy to see American Anthem lose, didn't even make the board actually. I won't say I told you so. And my best bet of the day, Mor Spirit, won at 4/5 in pretty easy fashion. So, A couple of "C" horses won today, and the other 2 races were won by "A's". Them the breaks..........on to next week at Dubai.

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
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On to DRF's Trackmaster. It was designed by Steve Crist and uses a computer program and algorithm's to help map out multi-race tickets i.e. Pick 4's, Pick 6's, etc. Crist uses a horse rating system putting horses most likely to win in the "A" category, horses that could possibly win in the "B" category and horses with a slight chance to win in the "C" category. All other horses are "X" horses and left off all tickets. The program designs tickets based on your wagering amount (i.e. $.50 or $1) and the total amount of the ticket ($100, $200, etc.). So, an "A" is going to be on more tickets than the "B" horses, and the "B" horses will be used more than the "C" horses. It basically just "weight's" the horses you like more when building a ticket. The great thing about the Ticketmaker is it allows you to use a lot more horses in the various legs..........BUT, and it's a big BUT, it limits how many longer shot horses "B's" and "C's" that can win for you to cash. (See yesterday's Pick 4 from Oaklawn). For clarity, the program just doesn't create 1 ticket, it creates many tickets, normally 4-12 tickets using numerous combinations of horses to cover everything.

Yesterday's Rebel ticket is a perfect example. The ticket, as laid out, only cost $156 or so. If you were to use every one of the A/B/C horses I used yesterday on a normal ticket (called a Caveman Ticket), the ticket would have been over $1000. With Ticketmaster, you would only cash if the races fell this way using a Pick 4 as an example:

A's win in every leg

3 A's win and 1 B horse wins

2 A's win and 2 B horses win

3 A's win and 1 C horse wins

Any other combo comes out, you lose. We had 2 A's and 2 C's yesterday- loss. You can minipulate the program to a point, i.e. only let the program figure the ticket with ONLY 3 A's and a B and NOT 2 A's and 2 B's. It's very flexible. That's it in a nutshell, below is a link to a tutorial to use it, it free and easy to play around with it until you understand it- it's quite simple after just a few times using it. I should also add that if we did our normal ticket, using everyone I liked, we would have won on the ticket but it would have cost $1000 and we would have only won $300+. Bottom line is it's a way to control your ticket cost but still allow a long shot (1 "C" or 2 "B's") here and there.

You can also Google Steve Crist and Ticketmaster and see various articles about it by others. I first learned about it in one of Steve Crist's books and he goes into great detail why it's such a good tool.

www.drf.com/drf-bets-ticketmaker

sshz
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I saw that Malagacy was given a 89 Beyer in the Rebel, while Mor Spirit was given a 103 Beyer in his race. Bottom line, the track was running true for the day with no biases noted.  I think it's safe to say the Kentucky Derby winner won't be coming from the Rebel race, as most K.D. winners run close to or over a 100 Beyer in their last prep.

After thought- I was reminded that Oaklawn is well known to have a very "deep" track, so Malagacy's Beyer number, although low, might actually be a bit better then originally thought. I'm looking more into it, trying to compare track to track numbers. I'll report back on it.

sshz
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Posts: 1897
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Dubai World Cup odds available internationally......who do you like for Place/Show? Arrogate's odds have been slowly falling and could be 1/5 by race day.

Arrogate                  2/5

Mubtaahij                8-1

Gun Runner            8-1

Hopportunity           14-1

Neolithic                  20-1

Special Fighter        33-1

Awaldee                  33-1

Keen Ice                 33-1

Apollo Kentucky      33-1

Gold Dream            33-1

Long R.                   50-1

Foria Cruzada         66-1

Move Up                 66-1

Lani                        100-1

sshz
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I expect this will be a lean posting week, check back Friday when the Service Picks come out. Not convinced this is a race to bet on, unless you play small money and try to beat the favorite........

sshz
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I also had a smile seeing "Lani" listed at 100-1 in the Dubai.......if you remember, he was the Japanese horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby last year and came in 9th. Then ran in the Preakness and came in 5th. THEN, I told everyone this horse will be there somewhere in the Belmont, maybe not win, but definitely 2nd or 3rd at worse. He came in 3rd, at 12-1 odds and paid $6.60 for show. So you know, he's raced 3X since the Belmont, finishing 3rd/9th/6th in Grade 1 company..........

sshz
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www.drf.com/.../road-derby-rebel-stakes-analysis

Above is DRF's after-race review of the Rebel. Also notice they revised Malagacy's Beyer up to 91 from 89.

sshz
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Well, I was under the assumption that the Dubai World Cup was the Kentucky Derby point race, it's not. Arrogate and these other horses are 4 yrs. and older. Duh......the Kentucky Derby Point race is the UAE Derby instead- worth 100 points to the winner. There are also 2 other K.D. point races this weekend, both giving 50 points to the winner, 1 on Sat and 1 on Sun. Saturday's is the Spiral Stakes at Turfway, Sunday's is the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park. Forget the Dubai stuff, I'll concentrate on just one the U.S. races instead. Service pics most likely will be released for all 3 races(on Friday), pick the ones you want.  Sorry guys for the confusion, my age is catching up with me.....LOL

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