Alright fellas, back at it again. When it comes to the fight game, every handicapper has a different method they use to decide who they think will win a fight. I use data, plug it into this model that I've created and out spits a win probability (my line). Then I compare my lines to the books and if I see a large enough discrepancy, I place a bet.
But to quote Nate Silver "The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information". My model has Frankie Edgar winning tonight 56% of the time or at -125. So as of this writing (depending on which book) he's listed as high as -190. So based off of that alone, Cub should be the play because the number is off.
But I'm going to tell you why Swanson will be not just a play but a big play for me. You see the model has Frankie winning this fight more often than not. At this point in their careers, if they fight 100 times, I would disagree with the model and have Swanson wining more than half the time. You see my model isn't sophisticated enough to realize that Frankie isn't the wrestler he once was. And although Cubs take down defense isn't the greatest, It's good enough to stave off Edgar's attempts more often than not. So that means the majority of this fight will be played out on the feet, and that's not good news for Frankie.
With his footwork and pace I expect Edgar to make it competitive on the feet until that one counter shot from Cub lands. Swanson's the more accurate puncher and the more powerful puncher. So when that shot lands Frankie's going to be in some trouble and that's when he'll look to his wrestling, but I just don't think it'll be enough. I love Frankie, but he isn't fighting Charles Oliveira or a washed up BJ Penn in this fight. Cub's hungry and this will be his moment to stake his claim at 145. If he doesn't stop Frankie, he'll do enough to take it on the cards. So the play is Cub, both from a data/implied odds perspective and an emotional/logical perspective.
The other plays on the card will be on...
Bobby Green +125
Jared Rosholt -285
Luke Barnatt -365
As always BOL fellas!