UPDATE 10/6: Teddy Covers tweets that wiseguy money is pouring in on Texas. The line closes Texas -7.5 and -8 in some spots despite the public being on WV. I am holding -6.5 so I am feeling good. Then what happens? West Virginia smashes Texas in the mouth and wins outright. I just lost a huge chunk of my bankroll that I had been building all football season. Wow. Just wow. Barely anyone on West Virginia's roster would even be recruited by Texas yet West Virginia looked like the 5 star program instead of Texas. It is going to be hard to ever bet against Dana Holgerson again.
This one is simple. West Virginia's defense is terrible. The offense had to literally be perfect for West Virginia to beat Baylor. They scored 70 points and didn't cover. The only chance West Virginia has to cover this number against Texas is if their offense is perfect again. It will be good but it won't be perfect.
Buy Texas -6.5
*I will be back with more analysis as the week goes on but wanted to post this so we can get the best number.
**UPDATE: WED, 10-3**
A couple more reasons why I like Texas.
1. Texas' pass rush. West Virginia's offensive line has not had to block a defensive line as freakshly athletic as Texas. Texas will get more pressure on Geno Smith than any team WV has faced so far this season. Smith has had a lot of success standing in the pocket and waiting for his receivers to break free. This likely won't be the case vs Texas.
2. Texas' defensive backs. Texas's dbs are physical and will get in the face of and jam WV's wide receivers. WV's receivers are not used to this. This could throw off the timing of WV's offense of which they rely heavily on. Also Texas' dbs are faster than any of the ones WV has faced. WV's receivers have easily beat their coverage but will have a harder time vs Texas.
These two factors combined will make it hard for West Virginia's offense to put up enough points to overcome their poor play on defense.
UPDATE: Thurs, 10-4
Holgorsen has just announced that Shawne Alston WILL NOT be playing vs Texas. Alston is WV's big physical running back. After sitting out last week, WV was hoping he would be ready to go for Texas but he will not be.
UPDATE: Sat, 10-6
Here is in update regarding players who were uncertain:
Playing: Ryan Clarke rb, Donovan Miles, rb
Not Playing: Shawne Alston rb, Avery Williams cb, Matt Moro s, Travis Bell s
Hmmm...A team that can score like West Virginia getting almost a TD here is somewhat dangerous to give that many points to, and Texas has yet to be tested....and Mack Brown is not the best Big Game coach around either....I do agree that West Virginia's defense is flat out deplorable....tough call in my opinion....
Regards, Tony George- Big 12 Expert, 21 Year Veteran Capper, Pregame Pro Handicapper - "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"
Daily Plays here at Pregame from 21 year veteran Capper Tony George.
You don't consider winning at okst in a pickem game in the last minute being tested?
Yahoo CFB Pickem ATS Champ 168-111 60%
2011 Pregame Hilton 48-37 56%
2012 Pregame Hilton 52-33 61%
Okie State not all that good..see what Pac 12 Arizona did to OSU? OSU has 2 frosh QB's.....Texas has not faced a QB like Smith in the recent past that I can recall....just sayin....7 points is a ton in this game....My power ratings have this at Texas -2.......and you are talking to a guy who has Texas Saturday Night as a premium....
Really in all essence this is a barometer game for BOTH teams....hard to back a team who allowed Baylor 63 points in their own house...I will give you that..Texas has the far better defense.....and are at home...again this is a tough call....in my opinion...not stealing anyone's Thunder, just adding my 2 cents... Mack Brown is a very overrated coach and blows big games like this all the time...and I study the Big 12 quite a bit...
I meant HAD Texas Saturday for a Premium Play....
DubV, this line is very odd to say the least. I smell a rat..........
What you talking about Razor? Are you thinking it should be more or less?
Darts: 1-1-0 0 units
jUST Take the over-----if it isn't over 80.