Penn State (11-3 SU/10-3-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 90.40 (#8)
Returning Starters: 15 (9 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: WR Chris Godwin, OC Brian Gaia, LB Brandon Bell, DE Garrett Sickels, DE Evan Schwan and SS Malik Golden
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #15
2016 Season Recap: After a pair of 7-6 seasons, Penn State head coach James Franklin’s seat was beginning to warm in Happy Valley. Expectations weren’t that high as the Nittany Lions season win total was only 6.5 at South Point. After an expected win over Kent State in the opener, Penn State lost a renewed rivalry game at Pitt. After a win over Temple, the bottom fell out at Michigan as a banged up Penn State team lost 49-10. The season would take a dramatic turnaround starting with an OT win over Minnesota as a home underdog. Remarkably, the Nittany Lions were also a home underdog to Maryland and they would run away from the Terps in the second half. After a bye week, Penn State got a dramatic upset win over Ohio State as 19-point underdogs. The Nittany Lions would then easily cover over Purdue and Iowa in blowout wins and then benefitted from five Indiana TO’s in another win and cover. After a 39-0 shutout win over Rutgers, they hammered Michigan State. In the Big Ten Championship game, the Nittany Lions rallied from a 28-7 deficit to beat Wisconsin. In a dramatic Rose Bowl, Penn State was outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter as they lost 52-49 to USC. However, the Nittany Lions still covered as they finished the season with nine straight covers.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 37.6 21
Rushing 171.9 66
Passing 260.7 36
Total 432.6 49
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 25.4 47
Rushing 151.3 48
Passing 216.6 50
Total 367.9 37
Penn St (SU: 11-3, ATS: 10-3-1, O/U: 10-4)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Kent St
|
L
|
-22.5
|
33-13
|
o44.5
|
9/10
|
at Pittsburgh
|
W
|
+4
|
39-42
|
o46.5
|
9/17
|
Temple
|
L
|
-8.5
|
34-27
|
o50
|
9/24
|
at Michigan
|
L
|
+17
|
10-49
|
o57
|
10/1
|
Minnesota OT
|
P
|
-3
|
29-26
|
u55.5
|
10/8
|
Maryland
|
W
|
+2.5
|
38-14
|
u56.5
|
10/22
|
Ohio St
|
W
|
+19
|
24-21
|
u56
|
10/29
|
at Purdue
|
W
|
-14
|
62-24
|
o57
|
11/5
|
Iowa
|
W
|
-7
|
41-14
|
o52.5
|
11/12
|
at Indiana
|
W
|
-7
|
45-31
|
o59.5
|
11/19
|
at Rutgers
|
W
|
-27
|
39-0
|
u56
|
11/26
|
Michigan St
|
W
|
-11.5
|
45-12
|
o53.5
|
12/3
|
† Wisconsin
|
W
|
+2.5
|
38-31
|
o45.5
|
1/2
|
† USC
|
W
|
+7.5
|
49-52
|
o59.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Nittany Lions welcome back 15 starters including nine on offense led by QB Trace McSorely who threw for a school-record 3,614 yards and 29 TD’s in 2016. McSorley’s average of 16.1 yards per completion led the nation. At RB, the Lions have one of the best in the country in Saquon Barkley who is fresh off a 2016 campaign that saw him run for 1,496 yards and 18 TD’s.
The Nittany Lions do lose their leading receiver and deep threat Chris Godwin (982 yards and 11 TD’s) but bring back one of the best TE’s in the country in Mike Gesicki (679 yards) along with DaeSean Hamilton (506 yards). Keep an eye out on Juwan Johnson who had a big spring. The OL does lose 3-year starting center in Brian Gaia but returns four starters and should be the best Penn State has had in several years.
The defense does lose some key players including LB Brandon Bell (88 tackles), SS Malik Golden and a pair of DE’s in Garrett Sickels and Evan Schwan. They also suffered a key loss when starting CB John Reid was injured in spring. The unit will be led by All-Big Ten MLB Jason Cabinda (81 tackles) and FS Marcus Allen (110 tackles).
The special teams unit sees the return of kicker Tyler Davis (22 of 24 FG’s in 2016) and also punter Blake Gillikin who averaged 42.8 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #9 Trace McSorely 6-0 205 Jr
RB #26 Saquon Barkley 5-11 223 Jr
WR #13 Saeed Blacknall 6-3 212 Sr
WR #5 DaeSean Hamilton 6-1 205 Sr
WR #84 Juwan Johnson 6-4 218 So
TE #88 Mike Gesicki 6-6 252 Sr
LT #52 Ryan Bates 6-4 305 So
LG #70 Brendan Mahon 6-4 320 Sr
C #66 Connor McGovern 6-5 310 So
RG #59 Andrew Nelson 6-6 306 Sr
RT #77 Chasz Wright 6-7 343 Jr
Defense:
DE #19 Torrence Brown 6-3 257 Jr
NT #41 Parker Cothren 6-4 295 Sr
DT #52 Curtis Cothran 6-5 280 Sr
DE #48 Shareef Miller 6-5 255 So
WLB #43 Manny Bowen 6-1 220 Jr
MLB #40 Jason Cabinda 6-1 232 Sr
SLB#7 Koa Farmer 6-1 222 Jr
CB #15 Grant Haley 5-9 185 Sr
SS #28 Troy Apke 6-1 206 Sr
FS #2 Marcus Allen 6-2 202 Sr
CB #1 Christian Campbell 6-1 194 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star CB Lamont Wade 5-9 190
4-star OG CJ Thorpe 6-3 314
4-star QB Sean Clifford 6-1 211
4-star DE Yetur Gross-Matos 6-5 242
4-star DT Fred Hansard 6-3 302
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Akron
|
-39
|
9/9
|
Pittsburgh
|
-16
|
9/16
|
Georgia St
|
-40
|
9/23
|
at Iowa
|
-9
|
9/30
|
Indiana
|
-21
|
10/7
|
at Northwestern
|
-7
|
10/14
|
Bye
|
|
10/21
|
Michigan
|
-7
|
10/28
|
at Ohio St
|
+10
|
11/4
|
at Michigan St
|
-11
|
11/11
|
Rutgers
|
-34
|
11/18
|
Nebraska
|
-19
|
11/25
|
at Maryland
|
-19
|
Schedule Analysis: Expectations will be sky-high for Penn State in 2017. The Nittany Lions get all three of their non-conference games at home with the most competitive coming against in-state rival Pittsburgh in a revenge game. The Big Ten portion opens up with a road trip to Iowa and after hosting Indiana, the Nittany Lions have a dangerous road trip to Northwestern (Penn State will be favored by about a TD). Penn State gets the all-important bye prior to a big game at home vs Michigan. The Nittany Lions, in their only underdog role of the season, will play at Ohio State as the Buckeyes will be looking for revenge. The very next week, Penn State travels to Michigan State (could be a flat spot). Penn State closes out the season with home games vs Rutgers and Nebraska before traveling to Maryland (will be a big favorite in each). Overall, I have the Nittany Lions favored in 11 of their 12 and all 11 are by a TD or more. However, with three games in that 7-10 point range, I’d set their season win total around 10.