Illinois (3-9 SU/5-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 63.83 (#84)
Returning Starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: QB Wes Lunt, WR Justin Hardee, C Joe Spencer, DE Dawuane Smoot, DE Carroll Phillips, LB Hardy Nickerson, CB Darius Mosely
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #48
2016 Season Recap: New athletic director Josh Whitman made a surprising move last spring as on his first day on the job he fired Bill Cubit and would go on to hire Lovie Smith (who was recently fired from Tampa Bay). With spring practice nearly underway, the Illini were way behind schedule from the very start and it carried over to the 2016 season. After a feel good win over Murray St, reality began to set in after back-to-back blowout losses at home to North Carolina and Western Michigan. The Illini would also get upset at home (-9.5) to Purdue in overtime. They broke their losing streak with a 24-7 win at Rutgers but were crushed by Michigan and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks. The highlight of the season came with a 31-27 upset (+8.5) of Michigan St. However, the Illini finished the season with three straight blowout losses to Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern as the offense only managed a combined 24 points. Overall, the Illini would go UNDER their season win total of 4.5 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 19.7 122
Rushing 140.5 105
Passing 174.6 109
Total 315.1 123
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.9 94
Rushing 219.2 105
Passing 185.9 17
Total 405.1 61
Illinois (SU: 3-9, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 6-6)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Murray St
|
W
|
-33
|
52-3
|
u65
|
9/10
|
N Carolina
|
L
|
+7.5
|
23-48
|
o59.5
|
9/17
|
W Michigan
|
L
|
+3
|
10-34
|
u55.5
|
10/1
|
at Nebraska
|
W
|
+20.5
|
16-31
|
u53
|
10/8
|
Purdue OT
|
L
|
-9.5
|
31-34
|
o52
|
10/15
|
at Rutgers
|
W
|
-4
|
24-7
|
u52
|
10/22
|
at Michigan
|
W
|
+39.5
|
8-41
|
u52.5
|
10/29
|
Minnesota
|
L
|
+8.5
|
17-40
|
o46.5
|
11/5
|
Michigan St
|
W
|
+8.5
|
31-27
|
o47.5
|
11/12
|
at Wisconsin
|
L
|
+25
|
3-48
|
o41.5
|
11/19
|
Iowa
|
L
|
+9.5
|
0-28
|
u45
|
11/26
|
at Northwestern
|
L
|
+16.5
|
21-42
|
o48.5
|
2017 Outlook: Illinois is one of the least experienced teams in the Big Ten this year with only 11 starters back. Because of injuries, the Illini had to play three different QB’s a year ago and their best one (Wes Lunt) departs. Chayce Crouch was limited in the spring and Jeff George, Jr took most of the snaps. There’s only one way to go for the unit after finishing No. 123 in total offense a year ago.
At RB, the top two rushers return in Kendrick Foster (720 yards and 7 TD’s) and Reggie Corbin (523 yards, 6.1 yards per carry). The Illini also return their leading receiver in Malik Turner (712 yards, 6 TD’s) and get back Mike Dudek (1,038 yards in 2014) who has missed the last two years because of injury. The OL does lose its leader in center Joe Spencer but look for LT Christian DiLauro (31 career starts) to lead the group.
On defense, the Illini lose their leading tackler in Hardy Nickerson (107 tackles last year) but do bring back 4 of their top 5 tacklers led by Tre Watson (102 tackles). They do suffer some massive losses on the defensive line led by DE Dawuane Smoot (15 TFL’s) who was selected in the third round of the NFL draft and DE Carroll Phillips who had 9 sacks. The secondary could be a strength as they were No. 17 in pass defense a year ago and bring back three starters.
On special teams, kicker Chase McLaughlin (12 of 17 FG’s in 2016) returns but they will have to replace punter Ryan Frain who averaged 40.1 yards per punt a year ago.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #7 Chayce Crouch 6-4 225 Jr
RB #22 Kendrick Foster 5-9 200 Sr
WR #11 Malik Turner 6-3 205 Sr
WR #9 Sam Mays 6-3 205 Jr
WR #18 Mike Dudek 5-11 185 Jr
TE #81 Griffin Palmer 6-5 220 RS Fr
LT #67 Christian DiLauro 6-5 300 Sr
LG #53 Nick Allegretti 6-4 315 Jr
C #65 Doug Kramer 6-2 270 RS Fr
RG #66 Jordan Fagan 6-6 300 Sr
RT #52 Adam Solomon 6-5 315 So
Defense:
DE #47 Sean Adesanya 6-3 250 Jr
DT #55 Jamal Milan 6-2 300 So
DT #95 Kenyon Jackson 6-0 290 So
DE #94 Tito Odenigbo 6-3 290 Jr
WLB #33 Tre Watson 6-2 235 Jr
MLB #3 Del’Shawn Phillips 6-1 230 Jr
SLB #2 Julian Jones 6-2 215 Jr
CB #1 Jaylen Dunlap 6-1 190 Sr
SS #17 Stanley Green 5-11 195 So
FS #21 Patrick Nelson 6-0 210 So
CB #23 Frank Sumpter 5-10 180 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
3-star WR Ricky Smalling 6-1 195
3-star DT Kendrick Green 6-4 270
3-star LB Del’Shawn Phillips 6-1 230
3-star OL Larry Boyd 6-5 310
3-star DL Owen Carney 6-3 230
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Ball St
|
-7
|
9/9
|
Western Kentucky
|
+6
|
9/15
|
at USF
|
+15
|
9/23
|
Bye
|
|
9/29
|
Nebraska
|
+9
|
10/7
|
at Iowa
|
+16
|
10/14
|
Rutgers
|
-6
|
10/21
|
at Minnesota
|
+15
|
10/28
|
Wisconsin
|
+21
|
11/4
|
at Purdue
|
+1
|
11/11
|
Indiana
|
+7
|
11/18
|
at Ohio St
|
+36
|
11/25
|
Northwestern
|
+12
|
Schedule Analysis: Obviously, the Illini are one of the bottom three teams in the Big Ten (a long with Purdue and Rutgers) and the projected lines reflect that as Illinois will likely be an underdog in at least 9 and most likely 10 games in 2017. It doesn’t help that in non-conference action, the Illini play two of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in South Florida and Western Kentucky (will be an underdog in both). Illinois gets home games in Big Ten play against Rutgers and Indiana as they’ll be favored over the Scarlet Knights and the Hoosiers could be ripe for an upset. The Illini also have a winnable road trip to Purdue. Right now, I only have Illinois favored in 2 games and both are by a TD or less. However, since they have three games in which they are an underdog of a TD or less, I’d set the Illinois season win total around 3 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the books opened them up at 3.5.