LSU (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 91.22 (#7)
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Key Losses: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Malachi Dupree, C Ethan Pocic, DT Davon Godchaux, LB Kendell Beckwith, LB Duke Riley, S Jamal Adams and CB Tre’Davious White
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #7
2016 Season Recap: The Tigers came into 2016 with a lot of hype as they returned 17 starters including a Heisman contender in RB Leonard Fournette. However, the season could not have gotten off to a worse start as LSU was upset by Wisconsin in the opener. That ended the longest non-conference win streak (regular season) in college football history at 52 games. The Tigers managed to win their next two games (both non-covers) but a 18-13 loss at Auburn was the final nail in the coffin for head coach Les Miles who was dismissed after. The Tigers actually responded quite well to interim Ed Orgeron as they won and covered their next three games. However, in a defensive slug-fest, the Tigers would lose at home to Alabama 10-0. After a 38-10 win over Arkansas, the Tigers would come up short at the goal line on the final play in a 16-10 loss at home to Florida (was originally scheduled to be an away game). LSU would hammer Texas A&M in the finale and Orgeron got the permanent gig. The Tigers continued their winning ways by dismantling Louisville 29-9 in the bowl game.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 28.3 68
Rushing 233.0 21
Passing 190.1 101
Total 423.1 59
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 15.8 5
Rushing 117.2 13
Passing 197.2 23
Total 314.4 10
LSU (SU: 8-4, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 2-10)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
† Wisconsin
|
L
|
-12.5
|
14-16
|
u44
|
9/10
|
Jacksonville St
|
L
|
-31
|
34-13
|
u55.5
|
9/17
|
Mississippi St
|
L
|
-13.5
|
23-20
|
u47
|
9/24
|
at Auburn
|
L
|
-3.5
|
13-18
|
u46
|
10/1
|
Missouri
|
W
|
-12
|
42-7
|
u53
|
10/15
|
Southern Miss
|
W
|
-24.5
|
45-10
|
u56
|
10/22
|
Mississippi
|
W
|
-7.5
|
38-21
|
u60.5
|
11/5
|
Alabama
|
L
|
+7.5
|
0-10
|
o45.5
|
11/12
|
at Arkansas
|
W
|
-7
|
38-10
|
o45.5
|
11/19
|
Florida
|
L
|
-14
|
10-16
|
u38
|
11/24
|
at Texas A&M
|
W
|
-6.5
|
54-39
|
o48
|
12/31
|
† Louisville
|
W
|
-3
|
29-9
|
u59.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Tigers will be much less experienced than last year’s team as they return only 11 starters. The offense has a new coordinator in Matt Canada who comes over from Pittsburgh. Danny Etling is back at QB after throwing for 2,123 yards (59.5%, 11-5 ratio). While the Tigers lose Top 5 pick Leonard Fournette, the best RB on the team last year was actually Derrius Guice who led the SEC in rushing with 1,387 yards and 15 TD’s (averaged 7.6 yards per carry).
The big losses on offense come at the WR position as the Tigers lose both Malachi Dupre (593 yards) and Travin Dural. Look for D.J. Chark (466 yards last year) to become the go-to-guy in 2017. The OL loses one of the best centers in college football in Ethan Pocic and the unit will be led by Will Clapp who will slide over to center this year.
The defense has some major holes to fill as they lose their top 5 tacklers from last year. Both LB’s Duke Riley (93 tackles) and Kendell Beckwith (91 tackles) were All-SEC and DT Davon Godchaux (62 tackles, 6.5 sacks) will be missed. The secondary also took a hit as S Jamal Adams (76 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s) and CB Tre’Davious White (16 passes defended) were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Arden Key, who plays the Buck position had 12 sacks a year ago, but sat out the spring due to personal reasons. His return will be mandatory for the Tigers.
The Tigers will have to replace kicker Colby Delahoussaye (11 of 15 FG’s last year) and the early favorite is Connor Culp. Punter Josh Growden (averaged 41.4 yards per punt) returns and it will be interesting to see if they still have Derrius Guice return kicks.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #16 Danny Etling 6-2 215 Sr
RB #5 Derrius Guice 5-11 212 Jr
H-Back #44 J.D. Moore 6-4 241 Sr
WR #7 D.J. Chark 6-3 187 Sr
WR #83 Russell Gage 6-0 179 Sr
TE #84 Foster Moreau 6-6 250 Jr
LT #63 K.J. Malone 6-4 303 Sr
LG #75 Maea Teuhema 6-5 315 Jr
C #64 Will Clapp 6-5 309 Jr
RG #78 Garrett Brumfield 6-3 305 Jr
RT #66 Toby Weathersby 6-5 302 Jr
Defense:
DE #18 Christian LaCouture 6-5 301 Sr
NT #99 Greg Gilmore 6-4 308 Sr
DE #90 Rashard Lawrence 6-3 301 So
BUCK #49 Arden Key 6-6 238 Jr
ILB #40 Devin White 6-1 255 So
ILB #48 Donnie Alexander 6-1 212 Sr
OLB #23 Corey Thompson 6-2 222 Sr
CB #2 Kevin Toliver II 6-2 193 Jr
SS #21 Ed Paris 6-1 203 Sr
FS #26 John Battle 6-2 202 Sr
CB #1 Donte Jackson 5-11 173 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star S JaCoby Stevens 6-2 214
4-star DE K’Lavon Chaisson 6-4 220
4-star OL Austin Deculus 6-6 345
4-star DT Tyler Shelvin 6-3 376
4-star ILB Jacob Phillips 6-4 228
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
† BYU
|
-14
|
9/9
|
Chattanooga
|
-34
|
9/16
|
at Mississippi St
|
-9
|
9/23
|
Syracuse
|
-24
|
9/30
|
Troy
|
-30
|
10/7
|
at Florida
|
-1
|
10/14
|
Auburn
|
-6
|
10/21
|
at Ole Miss
|
-8
|
10/28
|
Bye
|
|
11/4
|
at Alabama
|
+12
|
11/11
|
Arkansas
|
-17
|
11/18
|
at Tennessee
|
-4
|
11/25
|
Texas A&M
|
-14
|
Schedule Analysis: The season opens up with a solid BYU team (game will be played in Houston) but LSU figures to be a sizable favorite in that one. The will be a significant favorite in their other three non-conference games. LSU’s SEC schedule is tougher than expected this year due to the scheduling fiasco with Florida a year ago (they’ll play both cross-over games vs SEC East teams on the road). LSU does get key West division games vs Auburn and Texas A&M at home, but have three tough road games at Alabama, at Florida and at Tennessee. While I currently have LSU favored in 11 of their 12 games, three are by less than a TD. Over the past 5 seasons, LSU has been extremely prone to being outright upset (were favored in 11 games last year) and we’ll see if that changes with Ed Orgeron at the helm full-time. So for right now, I’ll be conservative and put the Tigers’ season win total around 9.5.