Texas A&M (8-5 SU/4-8-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 80.82 (#27)
Returning Starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: WR Josh Reynolds, OG Jermaine Eluemunor, DE Myles Garrett, DE Daeshon Hall, LB Shaan Washington, DB Justin Evans
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #11
2016 Season Recap: Expectations weren’t that high for Texas A&M in 2016 as their season win total opened at only 6 at South Point. In the opener, the Aggies nearly blew a 24-9 4Q lead vs UCLA only to win in OT. After a blowout win vs Prairie View, they upset Auburn on the road and then dominated the second half vs Arkansas to move to 4-0 SU and ATS. The Aggies would beat South Carolina 24-13 (-19) and then won a dramatic double overtime game vs Tennessee to move to 6-0. However, like the past couple of seasons, the roof collapsed on them starting with a 19-point loss at Alabama. After a blowout win over New Mexico St, the Aggies were upset in back-to-back weeks vs Mississippi State and Ole Miss as TD-plus favorites. Texas A&M really struggled with UTSA and then were blown out at home to LSU. The bowl game wasn’t any better as the Aggies were upset by Kansas State. Remarkably, Texas A&M would fail to cover the spread in each of their last 9 games (one push) and that puts head coach Kevin Sumlin firmly on the hot seat entering 2017.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 34.8 34
Rushing 211.8 34
Passing 255.2 46
Total 467.0 24
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.5 40
Rushing 191.8 80
Passing 250.0 91
Total 441.8 90
Texas A&M (SU: 8-5, ATS: 4-8-1, O/U: 6-7)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
UCLA OT
|
W
|
-3.5
|
31-24
|
o54
|
9/10
|
Prairie View
|
W
|
-53
|
67-0
|
u71.5
|
9/17
|
at Auburn
|
W
|
+3
|
29-16
|
u55
|
9/24
|
† Arkansas
|
W
|
-6.5
|
45-24
|
o50
|
10/1
|
at S Carolina
|
L
|
-19
|
24-13
|
u48.5
|
10/8
|
Tennessee 2OT
|
P
|
-7
|
45-38
|
o58.5
|
10/22
|
at Alabama
|
L
|
+18
|
14-33
|
u59
|
10/29
|
New Mexico St
|
L
|
-43.5
|
52-10
|
u71.5
|
11/5
|
at Miss St
|
L
|
-11
|
28-35
|
o61.5
|
11/12
|
Mississippi
|
L
|
-7.5
|
28-29
|
u60.5
|
11/19
|
UTSA
|
L
|
-26.5
|
23-10
|
u55.5
|
11/24
|
LSU
|
L
|
+6.5
|
39-54
|
o48
|
12/28
|
† Kansas St
|
L
|
-3.5
|
28-33
|
o56.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Aggies return 12 starters this year including 5 on offense. They do lose QB Trevor Knight and in the spring it was a 3-man battle between senior Jake Hubenak, RS freshman Nick Starkel and true freshman Kellen Mond. Hubenak has the most experience, Mond is the most athletic and has the most upside while Starkel is kind of the combo of the two (more experienced than Mond and more upside than Hubenak). None of the three impressed in the spring game.
At RB, the Aggies return Trayveon Williams who became the first true freshman to run for 1,000 yards in school history. The receiving corps does lose 3 of its top 4 including Josh Reynolds. Look for Christian Kirk (928 receiving yards last year) to get plenty of touches. The offensive line does lose guard Jermaine Eluemenor.
Defense has been the issue in the Sumlin era and while they have made strides under defensive coordinator John Chavis, they were still No. 90 in total defense a year ago allowing nearly 442 yards per game. Obviously, the biggest loss is DE Myles Garrett (8.5 sacks, 15 tfl’s) who went No. 1 overall in the NFL draft. His counterpart at DE Daeshon Hall also departs along with the top two tacklers LB Shaan Washington (104 tackles) and DB Justin Evans (87 tackles). The DT position is solid but there are major question marks at LB. The secondary is probably the strongest unit.
Shane Tripucka is back at punter after averaging 42.9 yards per punt a year ago while kicker Daniel LaCamera also returns (17 of 24 FG’s in 2016). Christian Kirk was among the best punt returners in the country last year with three touchdowns.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #17 Nick Starkel 6-3 205 RS Fr
RB #5 Trayveon Williams 5-9 200 So
WR #2 Jhamon Ausbon 6-2 220 Fr
WR #3 Christian Kirk 5-11 200 Jr
WR #4 Damion Ratley 6-3 195 Sr
TE #86 Tanner Schorp 6-3 245 Sr
LT #75 Koda Martin 6-6 310 Jr
LG #64 Erik McCoy 6-4 309 So
C #76 Colton Prater 6-4 300 So
RG #70 Connor Lanfear 6-6 310 Jr
RT #78 Keaton Sutherland 6-5 305 Jr
Defense:
DE #9 Qualen Cunningham 6-3 240 Sr
DT #88 Kingsley Keke 6-4 300 Jr
DT #92 Zaycoven Henderson 6-2 305 Sr
DE #40 Jarrett Johnson 6-3 260 Sr
SLB #7 Richard Moore 6-1 218 Jr
MLB #42 Otaro Alaka 6-3 240 Jr
WLB #19 Anthony Hines 6-3 220 Fr
CB #24 Priest Willis 6-2 200 Sr
SS #6 Donovan Wilson 6-1 200 Sr
FS #23 Armani Watts 5-11 205 Sr
CB #21 Charles Oliver 6-2 200 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star ILB Anthony Hines III 6-3 220
4-star WR Jhamon Ausbon 6-2 220
4-star QB Kellen Mond 6-2 200
4-star S Derrick Tucker 6-2 194
4-star WR Hezekiah Jones 5-11 190
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/3
|
at UCLA
|
+3
|
9/9
|
Nicholls St
|
-41
|
9/16
|
UL-Lafayette
|
-28
|
9/23
|
† Arkansas
|
-3
|
9/30
|
South Carolina
|
-9
|
10/7
|
Alabama
|
+12
|
10/14
|
at Florida
|
+9
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/28
|
Mississippi St
|
-8
|
11/4
|
Auburn
|
+4
|
11/11
|
New Mexico
|
-24
|
11/18
|
at Ole Miss
|
+1
|
11/25
|
at LSU
|
+14
|
Schedule Analysis: Like most SEC West teams, the Aggies schedule ranks among the toughest in the nation. They do have three easy non-conference games where they will be a significant favorite in each game, but the Aggies will be an underdog on the road in the season opener at UCLA (could be the key game of the entire season for both teams). The SEC slate opens up with Arkansas and South Carolina (A&M will be favored in both) and then it gets much more difficult with back-to-back games vs Alabama and at Florida. After a much-needed bye, the Aggies get three straight home games, but the season closes off with back-to-back road games at Ole Miss and at LSU (most likely will be a dog in both games). Overall, I have the Aggies favored in just 6 games but three of their underdog roles are by 4-points or less so I’ll project their season win total to be around 6.5 to 7. Will that be enough for Sumlin to hang around for 2018?